2021 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

[Kevloaf]

Great Follow up Norton, great to see these debates/discussions it's what the forum is all about.

I thought it was about graphs and sliding scales

[Outlaw]

I thought it was about graphs and sliding scales

You should no better than to antagonize Moderator i'm screwed either way i've been looking at a stopwatch all season

[Craigy14]

I’m happy to give Does He Know another chance, we’ll have to anyway as was with PP

But he’s won twice at Cheltenham over 2m 4f and the form isn’t too bad looking. Obviously ran out last time in the Challow so can obviously right that run. Annoyingly would have been good to see if he could put it up to Bravemamsgame.

[Quevega]

Realise that Q and I was busy going back over every AB for the last decade while you were pointing out this evidential omission.

There have been 183 runners in the AB during the past 10 years.

The breakdown is as follows:

Aged 6: 105
Aged 5: 35
Aged 7: 29
Aged 8: 12
Aged 9: 2

During the past decade the winners breakdown is:

Aged 6: 6
Aged 7: 2
Aged 5: 1
Aged 8: 1

The breakdown of horses finishing in the first three is:

Aged 6: 18
Aged 7: 5
Aged 5: 5
Aged 8: 2

So 6-year-olds account for 57 per cent of the total runners and 60 per cent of winners and 60 per cent of horses finishing in the first 3.

7-year-olds account for just under 16 per cent of total runners, 20 per cent of winners and 16.5 per cent of horses in the first 3.

5-year-olds account for just over 19 per cent of the total runners, 10 per cent of the winners and 16.5 per cent of horses finishing 1-3.

8-year-olds account for 6.5 per cent of total runners, 10 per cent of winners and 6.6 per cent of horses finishing 1-3.

CONCLUSION:

5-year-olds are the only age group which have performed below the per cent level expected from the number of runners.

And that sounds pretty logical to me because strength and stamina surely play a big part in determining the horses who perform best in this heat - and you imagine most 5-year-olds are that bit weaker.

The plus/minus margins are only small. But in the last decade only 5 five-year-olds have made the frame - that's just 1 every two years. So you couldn't go very overboard on five-year-olds for the Bartlett.

It's a race dominated by 6-year-olds who on average have filled not far short of 2 of the top 3 spots every year for a decade.

If you broaden it out a bit to see how many 6-year-olds have finished in the top 4 the success rate/number of runners ratio rises to 26 out of 40 (65 per cent).

The 6-year-olds are only getting a slight edge but it all counts.

Specially when it's combined with the dominance of Irish runners - particularly in the last two runnings when they have filled the first 3 places twice in a row.

Over the last 5 years (you gotta stop somewhere) Irish horses in the AB (aged 6 unless stated in brackets) finished:

2020: 1,2 (7), 3, 5, 6
2019: 1, 2 (5), 3,, 6 (8)
2018: 4, 5 (5)
2017: 1,2
2016: 2, 5 (5)

So in the last 5 years Irish horses have filled 9 of the 15 top three spots.

7 of those 9 have been aged 6.

So (bottom line at last) we are probably looking for an Irish trained 6-year-old to win this.

That means a shortlist which includes the likes of: Stattler, Power of Pause, N'Golo, Make Good, Fire Attack, Farouk D'alene, Fakiera, Dewcup, Crosshill, Ashdale Bob and Uhtred if we ever see him this season.

The only one I've backed is Fakiera (TWAR and he could easily end up in the Pipe) so I'd love someone to help me fall in love with one of the others.

Much more thorough.
Excellent stuff.
Would have been better to go through all the races and not just the last 10, but please don't.

The biggest and most obvious point which you've made and most are aware of is the need for stamina/experience and age would obviously help with this.
I agree that it stands to reason and logic that an older horse would generally have more stamina and mindset to graft in this race.
It was just the bare stats from your first post were a little skewed due to the break down of runners.

But even without the first few years stats, it's clear that there is a slight disadvantage for the younger horses.

Obviously the next step would be which age groups performed above their expected levels due to ratings ?
Please don't do this either.

[Rooster Booster]

Realise that Q and I was busy going back over every AB for the last decade while you were pointing out this evidential omission.

There have been 183 runners in the AB during the past 10 years.

The breakdown is as follows:

Aged 6: 105
Aged 5: 35
Aged 7: 29
Aged 8: 12
Aged 9: 2

During the past decade the winners breakdown is:

Aged 6: 6
Aged 7: 2
Aged 5: 1
Aged 8: 1

The breakdown of horses finishing in the first three is:

Aged 6: 18
Aged 7: 5
Aged 5: 5
Aged 8: 2

So 6-year-olds account for 57 per cent of the total runners and 60 per cent of winners and 60 per cent of horses finishing in the first 3.

7-year-olds account for just under 16 per cent of total runners, 20 per cent of winners and 16.5 per cent of horses in the first 3.

5-year-olds account for just over 19 per cent of the total runners, 10 per cent of the winners and 16.5 per cent of horses finishing 1-3.

8-year-olds account for 6.5 per cent of total runners, 10 per cent of winners and 6.6 per cent of horses finishing 1-3.

CONCLUSION:

5-year-olds are the only age group which have performed below the per cent level expected from the number of runners.

And that sounds pretty logical to me because strength and stamina surely play a big part in determining the horses who perform best in this heat - and you imagine most 5-year-olds are that bit weaker.

The plus/minus margins are only small. But in the last decade only 5 five-year-olds have made the frame - that's just 1 every two years. So you couldn't go very overboard on five-year-olds for the Bartlett.

It's a race dominated by 6-year-olds who on average have filled not far short of 2 of the top 3 spots every year for a decade.

If you broaden it out a bit to see how many 6-year-olds have finished in the top 4 the success rate/number of runners ratio rises to 26 out of 40 (65 per cent).

The 6-year-olds are only getting a slight edge but it all counts.

Specially when it's combined with the dominance of Irish runners - particularly in the last two runnings when they have filled the first 3 places twice in a row.

Over the last 5 years (you gotta stop somewhere) Irish horses in the AB (aged 6 unless stated in brackets) finished:

2020: 1,2 (7), 3, 5, 6
2019: 1, 2 (5), 3,, 6 (8)
2018: 4, 5 (5)
2017: 1,2
2016: 2, 5 (5)

So in the last 5 years Irish horses have filled 9 of the 15 top three spots.

7 of those 9 have been aged 6.

So (bottom line at last) we are probably looking for an Irish trained 6-year-old to win this.

That means a shortlist which includes the likes of: Stattler, Power of Pause, N'Golo, Make Good, Fire Attack, Farouk D'alene, Fakiera, Dewcup, Crosshill, Ashdale Bob and Uhtred if we ever see him this season.

The only one I've backed is Fakiera (TWAR and he could easily end up in the Pipe) so I'd love someone to help me fall in love with one of the others.

From memory very wood was available at 66-1 on the morning of the race having taken some lame steps.. couldn’t make it up. Beaten over 40 lengths in following years NHC and sadly not seen again so even the one winner isn’t a great advert for others to follow suit. My memory also tells me that a number of the other 5 year olds were Willie Mullins trained and let’s face it he makes his own rules and following his lead is not for mere mortals.

[Rooster Booster]

Tizzard might have had a few of the others I think? Native river and the dour stayer elegant escape possibly. A far cry from cape gentleman you’d think

[Topofthegame2021]

Does anyone have any reasonings for the drift on Cape Gentelman for the Ballymore and shortening for this? Has something been said? I see he’s not running in the grade 1 on Sunday

[Pendil]

Realise that Q and I was busy going back over every AB for the last decade while you were pointing out this evidential omission.

There have been 183 runners in the AB during the past 10 years.

The breakdown is as follows:

Aged 6: 105
Aged 5: 35
Aged 7: 29
Aged 8: 12
Aged 9: 2

During the past decade the winners breakdown is:

Aged 6: 6
Aged 7: 2
Aged 5: 1
Aged 8: 1

The breakdown of horses finishing in the first three is:

Aged 6: 18
Aged 7: 5
Aged 5: 5
Aged 8: 2

So 6-year-olds account for 57 per cent of the total runners and 60 per cent of winners and 60 per cent of horses finishing in the first 3.

7-year-olds account for just under 16 per cent of total runners, 20 per cent of winners and 16.5 per cent of horses in the first 3.

5-year-olds account for just over 19 per cent of the total runners, 10 per cent of the winners and 16.5 per cent of horses finishing 1-3.

8-year-olds account for 6.5 per cent of total runners, 10 per cent of winners and 6.6 per cent of horses finishing 1-3.

CONCLUSION:

5-year-olds are the only age group which have performed below the per cent level expected from the number of runners.

And that sounds pretty logical to me because strength and stamina surely play a big part in determining the horses who perform best in this heat - and you imagine most 5-year-olds are that bit weaker.

The plus/minus margins are only small. But in the last decade only 5 five-year-olds have made the frame - that's just 1 every two years. So you couldn't go very overboard on five-year-olds for the Bartlett.

It's a race dominated by 6-year-olds who on average have filled not far short of 2 of the top 3 spots every year for a decade.

If you broaden it out a bit to see how many 6-year-olds have finished in the top 4 the success rate/number of runners ratio rises to 26 out of 40 (65 per cent).

The 6-year-olds are only getting a slight edge but it all counts.

Specially when it's combined with the dominance of Irish runners - particularly in the last two runnings when they have filled the first 3 places twice in a row.

Over the last 5 years (you gotta stop somewhere) Irish horses in the AB (aged 6 unless stated in brackets) finished:

2020: 1,2 (7), 3, 5, 6
2019: 1, 2 (5), 3,, 6 (8)
2018: 4, 5 (5)
2017: 1,2
2016: 2, 5 (5)

So in the last 5 years Irish horses have filled 9 of the 15 top three spots.

7 of those 9 have been aged 6.

So (bottom line at last) we are probably looking for an Irish trained 6-year-old to win this.

That means a shortlist which includes the likes of: Stattler, Power of Pause, N'Golo, Make Good, Fire Attack, Farouk D'alene, Fakiera, Dewcup, Crosshill, Ashdale Bob and Uhtred if we ever see him this season.

The only one I've backed is Fakiera (TWAR and he could easily end up in the Pipe) so I'd love someone to help me fall in love with one of the others.

Great stats NC and adds to me what was more of a feel about 5yos over 3 ml in graded hurdles at the festival. I think it is even more pronounced in the stayers

[ComplyOrDie]

Does anyone have any reasonings for the drift on Cape Gentelman for the Ballymore and shortening for this? Has something been said? I see he’s not running in the grade 1 on Sunday

I'd imagine he will be aimed at the 2m6f race at the DRF now that he has been removed from the Lawlors of Naas, however this is just an assumption made on my part, nothing more. If this were the case the 2m6f race has tended to be for horses heading to the Bartlett, and is usually a good guide.

[Topofthegame2021]

I'd imagine he will be aimed at the 2m6f race at the DRF now that he has been removed from the Lawlors of Naas, however this is just an assumption made on my part, nothing more. If this were the case the 2m6f race has tended to be for horses heading to the Bartlett, and is usually a good guide.

Cheers CoD! There has to be something more concrete. I backed him @ 20’s a couple of days back for the Ballymore and is now 33/1! Worrying

[Middle_Of_March]

This race just looks an absolute minefield.

I personally am more than happy to leave it be antepost until something comes out of the woodwork (most likely at the Dublin festival).

I think I’d struggle naming five likely runners here as of right now in all honestly.

[somer1]

This race just looks an absolute minefield.

I personally am more than happy to leave it be antepost until something comes out of the woodwork (most likely at the Dublin festival).

I think I’d struggle naming five likely runners here as of right now in all honestly.

With you on that MOM. giving me major headaches every time i look at it.

[The King Pimm]

I’ve backed a few for this but the two I’ll be topping up on over the next month will be the sponsors two horses Stattler & Crosshill. I didn’t realise Ronnie Bartlett (owns Allart, Dusart to name a few) was the business owner of Albert Bartlett potatoes until last night . It’s a family business that’s headed up by him and his brother these days. I’ve just looked back at the past 10 years results and this year is the first time he’s had any runners in it. They both have a solid chance so firm aside I’m going with a different angle of the sponsor wanting to win his own race. It’s a common theme at Cheltenham with the Ballymore and Ryanair being won by its owners so hopefully this year Mr Bartlett will win some of his invested money back

[JackieMoon33]

I’ve backed a few for this but the two I’ll be topping up on over the next month will be the sponsors two horses Stattler & Crosshill. I didn’t realise Ronnie Bartlett (owns Allart, Dusart to name a few) was the business owner of Albert Bartlett potatoes until last night . It’s a family business that’s headed up by him and his brother these days. I’ve just looked back at the past 10 years results and this year is the first time he’s had any runners in it. They both have a solid chance so firm aside I’m going with a different angle of the sponsor wanting to win his own race. It’s a common theme at Cheltenham with the Ballymore and Ryanair being won by its owners so hopefully this year Mr Bartlett will win some of his invested money back

Fagan came second for him a few years back I believe.

[The King Pimm]

Fagan came second for him a few years back I believe.

Damn it, I was feeling quite smug with my detective work then