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I thought the debate was around his record in novice/juvenile festival races hence my comment on the Fred Winter winners
But your point remains Nichols recent record in all races is not at the level it was 10+ years ago...
I have been keeping my eye on Adrimel for this for a while. Every time he runs he looks for all the world like a significant test of stamina is what he needs. He runs a bit behind the bridle. Tomorrow they are stepping him up to 2m 5. I seem to remember he was entered for the tolworth??? and have no idea whether he was a NR because of a minor issue or because the step up in trip was the way they decided to go. Anyhow tomorrow will reveal a lot. I think I am pushing my luck getting horses priced up for today and festival with Hills and need to lie low for a few days but if anybody fancies trying to get it priced up I would be very grateful as it’s 50s with them now so could be quite a big price. I do not think he has the class or speed for the Ballymore.
I have been keeping my eye on Adrimel for this for a while. Every time he runs he looks for all the world like a significant test of stamina is what he needs. He runs a bit behind the bridle. Tomorrow they are stepping him up to 2m 5. I seem to remember he was entered for the tolworth??? and have no idea whether he was a NR because of a minor issue or because the step up in trip was the way they decided to go. Anyhow tomorrow will reveal a lot. I think I am pushing my luck getting horses priced up for today and festival with Hills and need to lie low for a few days but if anybody fancies trying to get it priced up I would be very grateful as it’s 50s with them now so could be quite a big price. I do not think he has the class or speed for the Ballymore.
I quite like him as well RB, the one problem would be he seems to want it really testing.
Would he get his ideal conditions on the Friday I’m not so sure. Ground tends to dry up as the week goes on as we know, rare occasions it is a bog on the Friday (Native River GC springs to mind).
Maybe see how the race is panning out tomorrow as he may be one that the bookies don’t suspend in running?
I quite like him as well RB, the one problem would be he seems to want it really testing.
Would he get his ideal conditions on the Friday I’m not so sure. Ground tends to dry up as the week goes on as we know, rare occasions it is a bog on the Friday (Native River GC springs to mind).
Maybe see how the race is panning out tomorrow as he may be one that the bookies don’t suspend in running?
It is certainly very difficult to argue with the view that Nicholls isn't one you'd want to be rowing in with for the novice hurdles given he's only ever won two Supreme's and otherwise only has a handful of places.
My take on him as a trainer is that he's never really pushing too hard on them as novice hurdlers (big and backwards and all that claptrap) with a view to their chasing careers, but if their latent class takes them to a level where at that stage of their career they're likely to be competitive, typically having won one of the main trials beforehand, without him really working overdrive, he'll let them take their chance. In the main, their respective records post-novice hurdling would indicate that they were classy animals with that latent ability who still went onto better things afterwards, with obviously the vast majority of them being over fences.
Looking at his record in the novice hurdles from 2006 onwards which is when Noland won his first of the G1 festival novices):
Bartlett - no runner 06, 07 (Ornais 10th), 08 (3rd The Tother One), 09 (2nd Pride of Dulcote), 10 (2nd Najaf), 11 (PU Join Together) 12 (8th Rocky Creek), 13 (9th Aiim to Prosper) 14.(PU Saint Roque). No runners since.
Najaf cost over 200k from France where his form was good, but was never seen again after Aintree as he broke a knee. Pride of Dulcote was very smart but was beat by an absolute weapon and then never really had a chance to show his real potential as a chaser (nor did poor Weapons Amnesty unfortunately). The Tother One was a good solid 150 chaser along with Join Together, Ornais and Rocky Creek who all were strung out the back of TV in this. Aaim to Prosper won the Cesarewitch (not for PFN) the year beforehand but never really looked like a hurdler. Saint Roque didn't amount to much and went off a wild price, but did win one of the early season trials and was mid 140s going into the race so was no mug on ratings.
Ballymore - 06 (2nd Denman), 07 (4th Silverburn), 08 (10th Breedsbreeze), 09 (6th The Nightingale), 10 (Ghizao 12th) and 11 (Rock on Ruby - 2nd). No runners since.
Obviously Denman was an absolute freak yet was still Nicanor'd. Rock on Ruby won a Champion Hurdle the year after, even if Harry Fry was ultimately responsible for him for that season and beyond. The Nightingale and Ghizao developed into very good G2 chasers, Breedsbreeze won the Tolworth beforehand and then won a Feltham before never looking the same after an injury. Silverburn also won the Tolworth and then picked up the Scilly Isles although never really developed after that.
No runners since 2011 in a race of this nature is absolutely bonkers though. In that period, he's had some good horses place in the Challow/Tolworth (Politologue, Getaway Trump, Enrilo, Toubab, Mont des Avaloirs, Southfield Stone) that he hasn't taken onto the novice races at the Festival after being beaten despite the fact their ratings would be good enough to at least have an EW shout. Applying the reverse, his historic record would indicate that when he does have one good enough to claim an early season G1, he'll campaign them for a G1 novice tilt at the Festival, although that's hardly surprising and given the overall record, finding that one is likely to be difficult.
Supreme - 06 (Noland 1st) 07 (Granit Jack 2nd, Kicks for Free 8th), 08 (Rippling Ring 5th, Pasco PU), 09 (Shamari 13th), 11 (Al Ferof 1st), 12 (Prospect Wells 5th), 13 (9th Irving) 14 (9th Dodging Bullets) and 19 (11th Grand Sancy).
Noland won the Tolworth, Granit Jack was a French hype job we sadly never got to see much of. The 08 and 09 crop were respectable enough horses but none were particularly fancied and they didn't get up to much post festival. Al Ferof was a lovely sort if not a true G1 horse over fences, Irving was a very talented rogue and somehow he managed to train Dodging Bullets to mop up G1 chases for a year.
There's no doubt at all that the quality of horses coming into the yard dropped off dramatically throughout the early to mid 2010's which is likely culpable for the complete drop off. At the same time the Irish have gone ballistic alongside Nicky coming right back into the picture, particularly with big P2P purchases. He does seem to have a very nice team of novice hurdlers this year and he's had a whole host of promising (and very expensive) bumper winners that have predominantly come through as stores, which is not something I typically associate with the yard, so I wonder whether he may begin to change tact.
You wouldn't want to be banking anything on his horses early doors as ante post propositions for the novice hurdles given his recent exploits, no matter how impressive they may have looked in bumpers/points, as you know that in all likelihood he's going to be keeping them back to some degree for their chasing careers and targeting the races where the Irish aren't engaged in the interim. And yet if you do end up in a situation like this season with Bravemansgame, the price is long gone when he's dotted up in a G1.
Fantasio D’Alene is favourite for the 3m novice at Punchestown tomorrow - given he was in front of Stattler (12/1 fav for this) last time out & is still available for this at 50/1 - surely worth covering at that price?
Fantasio D’Alene is favourite for the 3m novice at Punchestown tomorrow - given he was in front of Stattler (12/1 fav for this) last time out & is still available for this at 50/1 - surely worth covering at that price?
Took the 50s ages ago. Just had a bit of 20s (skybet) any race.
Fantasio D’Alene is favourite for the 3m novice at Punchestown tomorrow - given he was in front of Stattler (12/1 fav for this) last time out & is still available for this at 50/1 - surely worth covering at that price?
He's actually still my best result in this specific race.... but have to admit that he seems to be the Martin Pipe plot.
Fantasio D’Alene is favourite for the 3m novice at Punchestown tomorrow - given he was in front of Stattler (12/1 fav for this) last time out & is still available for this at 50/1 - surely worth covering at that price?
Maybe, good form lines but Gordon could be wanting to split up his Fantasio's from his Farouk's ?
Maybe, good form lines but Gordon could be wanting to split up his Fantasio's from his Farouk's ?
Kevloaf
He's actually still my best result in this specific race.... but have to admit that he seems to be the Martin Pipe plot.
NRNB seems smart though...
Gordon’s going to end up with multiple entries in a number of races - given Gigginstown have the front 2 in the betting for the M Pipe already - they surely aren’t looking to put all 3 of there’s together?
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