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Lots of chat about Bob Olinger but the form isn't overly spectacular to me. Defeat by Ferny Hollow over 2m then beating a 2miler in Blue Lord and rubbish like Crosshill and Ashdale Bob who haven't done much for the form since.
GDM looked good at the DRF but beat a ragtag collection of 2milers in Cape Gentleman and horses that need further in Gentlemansgame and Stattler. Also the defeat to Holymacapony over 2m4 doesn't look overly great.
BMG was beaten by Soaring Glory who was then beaten My Drogo by 6l. Although that was over 2m and BMG needs further My Drogo showed today that he'd appreciate further too. BMG has looked good since that defeat although I'd question the form of the horses he beat.
I recall a few of FJ members trying to poke holes in Envoi Allen's Ballymore chances after his performance in the Naas Novice Hurdle last year too! He "only beat Elixir D'Ainay & Longhouse Poet by 3.5 & 7l respectively". That race is a great Ballymore trial! Personally i think he's tailor made for the race with his high cruising speed, staying ability & quick turn of foot! PTP types have an excellent record in this race & he fits the bill for me perfectly.
FWIW - I thought the performance of Bob Olinger that day was as good a Cheltenham trial as I've seen in a few years.
The horse looked so professional and he did everything in such a classy effortless way.
His 2 main dangers look different types to me, more tank like.
If it's normal Cheltenham ground then I'd say Bob is a strong Favourite.
I don't think he would be too put off on heavy either to be fair, it just might bring the tanks into play a bit more.
On better ground the tanks will need them to go fast enough early or Bob skips away up the hill.
I recall a few of FJ members trying to poke holes in Envoi Allen's Ballymore chances after his performance in the Naas Novice Hurdle last year too! He "only beat Elixir D'Ainay & Longhouse Poet by 3.5 & 7l respectively". That race is a great Ballymore trial! Personally i think he's tailor made for the race with his high cruising speed, staying ability & quick turn of foot! PTP types have an excellent record in this race & he fits the bill for me perfectly.
Surely you can say that GDM has all those abilities too?
I'm not criticizing the style of Bob Olinger's (or any of them) victory but just there's definite holes in the form lines.
I've no bet in this race so I'm not pushed really who wins really but was just frustrated that Dan Skelton hasn't entertained My Drogo for this
FWIW - I thought the performance of Bob Olinger that day was as good a Cheltenham trial as I've seen in a few years.
The horse looked so professional and he did everything in such a classy effortless way.
His 2 main dangers look different types to me, more tank like.
If it's normal Cheltenham ground then I'd say Bob is a strong Favourite.
I don't think he would be too put off on heavy either to be fair, it just might bring the tanks into play a bit more.
On better ground the tanks will need them to go fast enough early or Bob skips away up the hill.
Yes I agree with that. Bob Ollinger is a classy type that could go down or up in trip, whereas Gaillard du Mesnil and Bravemansgame will want three miles next season. They'll all win big races next season, but when you have three horses that that look pretty useful for this I know which type I prefer for a Ballymore.
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
The key thing to note about Bob Olinger is the noise coming out of Ireland, these are the people who either see the horse working every day or talk to the people who see the horse working every day, it's not often you get a unified opinion but this one seems to be the talk horse and I haven't heard a negative word...
Surely you can say that GDM has all those abilities too?
I'm not criticizing the style of Bob Olinger's (or any of them) victory but just there's definite holes in the form lines.
I've no bet in this race so I'm not pushed really who wins really but was just frustrated that Dan Skelton hasn't entertained My Drogo for this
If you look at past winners of this race, you have to go all the way back to 2009 & mikael d’haguenet to find the last horse with his profile winning (I.e. french bred, started out as a juvenile hurdler over in France), for the last decade this race has been the domain of former pointers & Irish bred stores that spent a season in bumpers prior to going hurdling.
the pair are probably hard to split on form, but Bob O is stronger on the trends; the adoration he is subject to from a lot of us Irish is probably a lot to do with that profile, he’s a very very good horse but he also really captures what’s great about the point scene in Ireland & the top quality horses coming out of it
If you think he's a false fav, (or anyone), surely they can use that to their advantage.... it might give it a bit of meaning if you're so sure?
Where did I say he's a false fav?
It's irrelevant until the big players get involved. They will decide who the fav is 5-10 mins before the off, not small markets influenced by a jockey saying it's a good thing.
It's irrelevant until the big players get involved. They will decide who the fav is 5-10 mins before the off, not small markets influenced by a jockey saying it's a good thing.
You didn't but you're implying by it not being relevant that you don't agree?
To the point where you bothered to type it out? Either that or you were just being negative for no reason?
I don't care who "the big players" think should be fav either.... for anyone ante post you're trying to get there long before they do?
I wouldn't wait until 5 mins before the off and follow the money. IMO that's a mug approach and gives way too much credit to "informed money".
It's an odd comment for you to have gone in on, hardly seemed worthwhile?
No I'm saying it's irrelevant because it is, nothing to do with who I think should be fav. The price shortened after Codd claimed he's a certainty.
Davy Russell said pretty similar too.
It reminds be a little bit about how many Irish tipped up Goshen last year...
Of course, next week will be the main week for it so will see what 'the vibes' are.
In terms of what you are saying then, I agree, the "preview circuit" is not relevant IMO either. Enjoying it this year more than last year though, but that's because there's nothing else going on.
I like Keskonrisk but for the other race. It's quite easy to make a case for him improving but I hadn't really considered the Ballymore. I'd love him to be a decent price with extra places on offer in the Supreme.
At 33s NRNB, you propbably should at least consider him here?
Despite 3 "good" horses at the top, the depth behind them is pretty flakey?
I'm warming to him more and more.
Looks like the trainer is too.....
"He will either run in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle or the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. The Supreme had been the likelier of the two, but we are starting to think the Ballymore might be a better option for him. Better ground will be a big help to him and he’s one that we always thought wouldn’t be at his best until the spring."
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