2021 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Hurricane fly]

Give BO has only raced over 2m once (even his bumper was 2.2) it does make you wonder why if he’d go close in a Supreme he’s not been raced over the trip more than once!

[charlie]

For me, it's definitely.... (in the realms of obviously not definitely, because that's stupid, but I would be as confident as I could be)

Yeh I agree re supreme pal, but re this BO will deal with GDM IMO.

[Kevloaf]

Yeh I agree re supreme pal, but re this BO will deal with GDM IMO.

Well I see them as competitive

Just looking,

GDM 2 pts e/w at 40/1
BO 1.5 pts win at 33/1
1.5 pts win at 16/1


So I'd take a BO win and GDM place

[charlie]

Well I see them as competitive

Just looking,

GDM 2 pts e/w at 40/1
BO 1.5 pts win at 33/1
1.5 pts win at 16/1


So I'd take a BO win and GDM place

Lovely positions Kev. No BMG?

[Kevloaf]

Lovely positions Kev. No BMG?

BMG was reactions only....

10/1 3.5 pts e/w and 3 pts win 6/1

After the impressive win over Star Gate who I buzzed off.

[Atlantic Viking]

Even on heavy ground, Bob O has always looked like he's crying out for further, not shorter. Both his previous runs it was commented just how strongly he carries on past the line.
Have done the NRNB Supreme bets as it makes sense, but i'd be very surprised indeed if it happened.

[Eggs]

....given it’s been beaten twice by AI, I wonder if Ballyadam could end up here. I have a 40-1 voucher for this (25-1 Supreme) that I’m a little reluctant to cash-out in fear of Elliott reconsidering the target.

[darlojim]

....given it’s been beaten twice by AI, I wonder if Ballyadam could end up here. I have a 40-1 voucher for this (25-1 Supreme) that I’m a little reluctant to cash-out in fear of Elliott reconsidering the target.

Very much get the feeling Gordy still feels like he has a chance in beating AI by his recent comments. Hes a grade 1 winner at 2 miles and it would be a bold move to step him up on D day.

[Eggs]

Very much get the feeling Gordy still feels like he has a chance in beating AI by his recent comments. Hes a grade 1 winner at 2 miles and it would be a bold move to step him up on D day.

....in his early season stable tour Elliott describes Ballyadam as a speedy type they ‘would start over two miles and see how it goes’. Elliott’s not got lots of Supreme/Ballymore ammunition and he might consider the Ballymore as a better option. It has won well over 2m+ so if there is one near the head of the market that might make an unexpected switch, I just wonder if it could be him.

I’ve convinced myself to hold onto that bet for now.

[ToniC]

Wrong thread

[ComplyOrDie]

Appreciate It is Madrid...

Bob Olinger is Leeds.

You're an animal, you knew I'd react to that

I believe Leeds 'are the greatest team in the land' it must mean Bob Olinger is a cert

It's funny how we read form lines though. I'm not in quite as good a position as you Kev, however GdM is no bad winner for me at all, but I mean GdM has beat some Albert Bartlett types, and on an 'exact line' through Blue Lord, Bob Olinger just about comes out on top of AI, by 1/2 length. You could also say through Ferny Hollow BO has the beating of AI too, but comparing bumper form to hurdles is probably night and day. Obviously I'm not pinning any hope of Bob Olinger on just them form lines (I think his figures and the visual way he quickens is right up there), that would be ludicrous, but there is literally nothing to suggest AI is better than Bob Olinger either, so.....I'd like to know how you've come to that conclusion?

I think there is plenty more to come from Bob Olinger, who has only had 5 career runs (inc. P2P's), where as Appreciate It is probably a little more hardened and definitely more racecourse experienced, given he's had 9 runs (inc. P2P's), so maybe less improvement expected from him (I'm just thinking out loud with this opinion).

On official ratings Appreciate It is 3lbs clear, but he's done more racing, as above, than Bob Olinger, he's also contested two G1's and won them well enough, so can't knock this, whereas Bob Olinger has only contested one G1, and again, won it well enough.

I wonder, if Bob Olinger was trained by Mullins and Appreciate It by de Bromhead, if we'd even be having this conversation. We all know Mullins is a massive factor for any horse. I reckon Bob Olinger would have been compared with Faugheen (given the turn of foot similarities) if he were to be trained by the master of Closutton.

I do hope you're right about Appreciate It though as I think almost the whole forum would love to get off to the best possible start at the festival in the Supreme

[Kevloaf]

You're an animal, you knew I'd react to that

I believe Leeds 'are the greatest team in the land' it must mean Bob Olinger is a cert

It's funny how we read form lines though. I'm not in quite as good a position as you Kev, however GdM is no bad winner for me at all, but I mean GdM has beat some Albert Bartlett types, and on an 'exact line' through Blue Lord, Bob Olinger just about comes out on top of AI, by 1/2 length. You could also say through Ferny Hollow BO has the beating of AI too, but comparing bumper form to hurdles is probably night and day. Obviously I'm not pinning any hope of Bob Olinger on just them form lines (I think his figures and the visual way he quickens is right up there), that would be ludicrous, but there is literally nothing to suggest AI is better than Bob Olinger either, so.....I'd like to know how you've come to that conclusion?

I think there is plenty more to come from Bob Olinger, who has only had 5 career runs (inc. P2P's), where as Appreciate It is probably a little more hardened and definitely more racecourse experienced, given he's had 9 runs (inc. P2P's), so maybe less improvement expected from him (I'm just thinking out loud with this opinion).

On official ratings Appreciate It is 3lbs clear, but he's done more racing, as above, than Bob Olinger, he's also contested two G1's and won them well enough, so can't knock this, whereas Bob Olinger has only contested one G1, and again, won it well enough.

I wonder, if Bob Olinger was trained by Mullins and Appreciate It by de Bromhead, if we'd even be having this conversation. We all know Mullins is a massive factor for any horse. I reckon Bob Olinger would have been compared with Faugheen (given the turn of foot similarities) if he were to be trained by the master of Closutton.

I do hope you're right about Appreciate It though as I think almost the whole forum would love to get off to the best possible start at the festival in the Supreme

I've mentioned it in the Supreme thread most often, but it's just that I feel Appreciate It has improved more over hurdles than anything else, and he already almost set the standard.

I think Bob Olinger has got a huge fan base on here (which is a bit of an echo chamber), and a lot of it is because people have backed him at big prices, which is perfectly understandable.

I'm at the conclusion that Appreciate It is the best novice hurdler in the 2m division, and I genuinely expect he'd be better over further, so that's why I fancy him more than Bob O, when GDM is fav versus Bob O (I appreciate perhaps he shouldn't be), but he is.... and when I feel AI would wallop GDM, I can't come to any other conclusion.

I doubt we'll find out, and it's not like I'd back that to be the case with no exception or belief I could have it wrong, but that's where I feel they sit in the pecking order.

Could/will change again next seaon when it's fences we're discussing.

[ComplyOrDie]

I've mentioned it in the Supreme thread most often, but it's just that I feel Appreciate It has improved more over hurdles than anything else, and he already almost set the standard.

I think Bob Olinger has got a huge fan base on here (which is a bit of an echo chamber), and a lot of it is because people have backed him at big prices, which is perfectly understandable.

I'd imagine this is very much the case, of course, and I guess when you back (not financially) a horse and the visual impression they make, early on, you want them to follow it through. I think it's a case of confirmation bias, of which I'd be surprised if we're not all guilty of on here at one point or another.

I'm at the conclusion that Appreciate It is the best novice hurdler in the 2m division, and I genuinely expect he'd be better over further, so that's why I fancy him more than Bob O, when GDM is fav versus Bob O (I appreciate perhaps he shouldn't be), but he is.... and when I feel AI would wallop GDM, I can't come to any other conclusion.

I don't disagree that Appreciate It, is, on what we've seen over 2m, the best 2m novice hurdler (it's near enough impossible to argue the against the facts that he's won every decent trial in Ireland), but I do think both Bob Olinger & Appreciate It could win that Supreme (provided they didn't take each other on, otherwise one would have to lose ), but I don't think the same can be said for GdM. Obviously I can't prove this and it's highly likely that Appreciate It gets his chance to prove it and Bob Olinger ends up in the Ballymore at this stage.

I don't have Bob Olinger or Appreciate It split in any way just yet. I don't think I will after the festival either, as I can see both winning their respective races.

Ultimately until the time comes that they meet we've probably come to an impasse

[Saxon Warrior]

CAPE GENTLEMAN
Ballymore and Albert Bartlett entry

Declared to come over to England on Saturday and run in the 3pm Dovecote 2M Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Kempton

[Spectre]

Trying to get a UK handicap mark for Aintree perhaps.