2021 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[jonthehammer]

The Balllymore is only 1f shorter than that race today so really dont get the angle for GDM to go to the AB. He looks tailor made for this race all day long, the way he put it to bed with his turn of foot was very good, worthy fav from what i can see, I feel like i have this race well covered now.

[charlie]

Haha, he's not mine, mines Appreciate It

I feel like what horses were ante post for a race isn't the best way to judge form... like, what did Nube Negra beat, yet what price is he now? So you can't have it both ways unless you now think Nube Negra is a good thing?

I don't think it's a market overeaction that he's fav, I think it's easier to say GDM is fav on form than Bravemansgame or Bob Olinger? Happy to have that debate....

The entire AB field was double figures wasn't it before today? It's not a valid reason to judge form.... the actual form is more important than ante post markets.

I dunno what he'll be given, to be honest, as it's not a handicap, it's not even crossed my mind... I wouldn't care? I don't care.... I don't care if it's higher than previous winners, or if its lower.... I don't value that as important.

2 years down the line, if he's in a handicap, I'll care.... but right now.... what the handicapper things won't even register for me.... I might at some point look at TF ratings, but it would never actually influence my betting in an open novice hurdle.

GDM has very solid form, but you are saying (pretty adamantly) that he is a long way ahead of anything else in the market on form. I respectfully disagree.

I am not using pre-race prices as a means to solely judge form, it was a small point to emphasise that the form of todays race is quite hard to quantify as there were lots of unknowns, both in terms of trip, and actual ability.

In terms of others, take Bravemansgame. Won his Grade 1 by 10L beating a 147 rated Grade 2 winner in a decent time pretty much hard held. I don't see how that is a long way behind what GDM has achieved on form.

[Kevloaf]

GDM has very solid form, but you are saying (pretty adamantly) that he is a long way ahead of anything else in the market on form. I respectfully disagree.

I am not using pre-race prices as a means to solely judge form, it was a small point to emphasise that the form of todays race is quite hard to quantify as there were lots of unknowns, both in terms of trip, and actual ability.

In terms of others, take Bravemansgame. Won his Grade 1 by 10L beating a 147 rated Grade 2 winner in a decent time pretty much hard held. I don't see how that is a long way behind what GDM has achieved on form.

Bravemansgame, beat Star Gate (who I loved tbf).... and The Glancing Queen, easily.

That's fine...but it's 2 horses....


GDM, has beaten a deep, deep field. There are horses beaten today that will go on to win graded races.

That's not a fact, but it just is



I feel like if GDM has been in Bravemansgame's race, he'd have thrashed them.

I feel if Star Gate and The Glancing Queen ran in todays race, they'd be the horses you're dismissing so easily as having question marks too!

I also think Bravemansgame would have been off the bridle, and beaten. I can't prove that.

[charlie]

Bravemansgame, beat Star Gate (who I loved tbf).... and The Glancing Queen, easily.

That's fine...but it's 2 horses....

GDM, has beaten a deep, deep field. There are horses beaten today that will go on to win graded races.

That's not a fact, but it just is

I feel like if GDM has been in Bravemansgame's race, he'd have thrashed them.

I feel if Star Gate and The Glancing Queen ran in todays race, they'd be the horses you're dismissing so easily as having question marks too!

I also think Bravemansgame would have been off the bridle, and beaten. I can't prove that.

You are the one saying GDM is way ahead on form, so I feel its up to you to make the case that he is, rather than me not, and saying there are horses beaten today that will go on to win graded races is a thin argument IMO

Barring Fakeira (Grade 3) they were maiden not graded winners weren't they, so how does that catapult itself ahead of beating a Grade 2 winner 10L rated 147 as easily as he liked?

[Lobos]

When asked about Bob Ollinger last week, Rachel Blackmore ooozed confidence. She thinks he is real quality. Nicholls and Cobden rate Bravemansgame very highly as well. Those 2'and GDM could well provide the race of the meeting.

[Nortons who]

Watched the Challow again and also GDM in the opener today.

Personally GDM looks a better hurdler to me than Bravemansgame, especially at the business end of the race where Bravemansgame clipped a couple which checked him a bit whereas GDM was far more fluent.

However, Bravemansgame appears to me as though he possesses greater raw speed than GDM. Difficult to quantify when they are running over different distances and ground conditions etc but to me he just looks quicker than GDM.

I must admit I also wasn't a fan of the fact that GDM appeared to be hemmed in a couple of times and dropped back to find space. I appreciate that PT travelled through the traffic easily enough around the final bend but in running he didn't look as though he was always going to win, unlike Bravemansgame in the Challow who never looked like he was going to lose.

I still fancy Bob Olinger for this though and like I said before, not running at the DRF might make him a fresher horse than GDM.

[Can't Catch Me]

Very nice run from Blue Lord there. Think he's going to be a player in this come March,

[Carnage at Taunton]

Very nice run from Blue Lord there. Think he's going to be a player in this come March,

Just thinking that myself Catch

[Eggs]

.....Blue Lord into a best priced 20-1 for this.

[opatcho]

.....Blue Lord into a best priced 20-1 for this.

Will have to re-watch the race, but he does appear to jump the hurdles.... saw it on his previous runs, too big for mi liking

[opatcho]

I feel like if GDM has been in Bravemansgame's race, he'd have thrashed them.

Bravemansgame, I just dont get what all the fuss is about and do not fancy him at all in March for anything

[doctorwu]

Bravemansgame, I just dont get what all the fuss is about and do not fancy him at all in March for anything

Lay of the festival imo

[charlie]

Lay of the festival imo

How come? Be an interesting convo now we have 3 clear principles

[Carnage at Taunton]

How come? Be an interesting convo now we have 3 clear principles

Good question, I look forward to the reasoning,

[opatcho]

would normally dig out a bunch of trends and provide detailed reasoning, but I’m not going to do that for what I think should be a 12/1 shot

it’s like when Solo won at Kempton and got smashed in, trainer got all excited, same with the media. Didn’t fancy Solo, didn’t know what all the hype was about

Watched all of his runs to work out what all the fuss was, I didn’t think of much of Bravesmansgame. Jumping was average, field and the way the races were ridden may the horse look better than he is

Nichols hasn’t trained a top class novice hurdler for ages, and I don’t see this changing anytime soon

been a long weekend, may provide more reasoning when I can be bothered, but struggling with enthusiasm which says it all.... bravesmangame bores me