2021 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[jack1092]

Thats very interesting to know Kev, come on Mr McNally it’s Dreal Deal time. Hehe

Lol, he was beat 7 times before winning over hurdles....

[Geordieboy83]

Run4Home yeah they have said likely going supreme, but also to get an entry here too.

Was just thinking into what Kev said about front 3 in market here, maybe come here instead of taking on a more solid looking AI in supreme.

[ComplyOrDie]

The top 3 in the market here, were beaten first time out over 2m....


I did the research on this and it's VERY RARE they actually go on to win.


Is this a market where we need to be looking at horses not in the mix yet?

I know Bob Olinger is a forum horse, but let's put that aside..... are the front 3 really that unbeatable?

Everything is beatable, and the front 3 of the Ballymore market are no different.

I think someone has already mentioned Boothill, he'd still be of massive interest should he come here.

With regards to the trend, I think we had the discussion on here after Your Darling was beat over 2m first time out, and while it is probably a worthwhile stat, how many of them beaten horses got beat by the then Supreme Novice Hurdle favourite? How highly rated is/was Ferny Hollow ahead of that run? It is a form line I'm happy to stick by myself, for the time being, anyway. However, I don't think it is a vintage renewal of the Ballymore or Supreme for that matter, and it would come as absolutely no surprise if something left field won either.

[Lobos]

Everything is beatable, and the front 3 of the Ballymore market are no different.

I think someone has already mentioned Boothill, he'd still be of massive interest should he come here.

With regards to the trend, I think we had the discussion on here after Your Darling was beat over 2m first time out, and while it is probably a worthwhile stat, how many of them beaten horses got beat by the then Supreme Novice Hurdle favourite? How highly rated is/was Ferny Hollow ahead of that run? It is a form line I'm happy to stick by myself, for the time being, anyway. However, I don't think it is a vintage renewal of the Ballymore or Supreme for that matter, and it would come as absolutely no surprise if something left field won either.

Agree with the Supreme as only Appreciate It really stands out so if anything happened to him or he didn't perform on the day then yes something left field could win. It would take something extraordinary to happen though for all three of the top guns in the Ballymore to bail out. Must be long odds on that one of those wins. I'd not look for anything else now. Maybe waiting until the day and look at the 'without' markets would be the best advice in the Ballymore.

[Nortons who]

Possibly of interest to some when considering latest shortlist for this race, although many on the Forum absolutely loath trends......so read no further if you suffer from this disposition.

It was mentioned a few posts back that the trends for this race are pretty strong, so I had a quick look in respect of the current market leaders.

Bob Olinger
Bravemansgame
Gallard Du Mesnil
Cape Gentleman
Irascible
Appreciate It (although Supreme bound most likely)

# All of the last 12 winners had won a hurdles race over a distance of 19-21 furlongs. To date neither Irascible nor Appreciate It have run over an extended trip.
# 12/12 - were aged 5 or 6. Appreciate It is 7.
# 12/12 - had run at least twice over hurdles. Cape Gentleman has only one to his name so far.
# 11/12 - had 3 runs over hurdles that season. To date only Bob Olinger and Bravemansgame have this many runs under their belts.
# 11/12 - had an OR of at least 146. Will all of the above achieve this, don't know yet.
# 10/12 - won LTO. Irascible was second LTO.
# 9/12 - ran in the previous 66 days prior to the race. Currently this only applies to Bob Olinger.
# 8/12 - were in the top 3 of the betting, which currently doesn't apply to Irascible.
# 9/12 - had won a graded hurdles race grade 1-3. So far only Bob Olinger, Bravemansgame and Irascible have won a graded hurdles race to this level.

Many of the above will run again prior to the Festival to alter the above quick assessment but at present Bob Olinger certainly seems to tick all of the boxes, wheras Appreciate It currently misses 3 of them.

[Pendil]

Thanks for that Nortons who
I am looking forward to My Drogo running in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon early Feb. If he wins carrying 5lb penalty he will tick a lot of boxes.
3 from 3 as a hurdler
6yo
Current handicap of 140 should increase
Grade 2 winner
ran in the previous 66 days

He is also a possible for the Supreme, 25/1 in both, but the Skeltons have Third Time Lucki for that

[Silverbirch]

Possibly of interest to some when considering latest shortlist for this race, although many on the Forum absolutely loath trends......so read no further if you suffer from this disposition.

It was mentioned a few posts back that the trends for this race are pretty strong, so I had a quick look in respect of the current market leaders.

Bob Olinger
Bravemansgame
Gallard Du Mesnil
Cape Gentleman
Irascible
Appreciate It (although Supreme bound most likely)

# All of the last 12 winners had won a hurdles race over a distance of 19-21 furlongs. To date neither Irascible nor Appreciate It have run over an extended trip.
# 12/12 - were aged 5 or 6. Appreciate It is 7.
# 12/12 - had run at least twice over hurdles. Cape Gentleman has only one to his name so far.
# 11/12 - had 3 runs over hurdles that season. To date only Bob Olinger and Bravemansgame have this many runs under their belts.
# 11/12 - had an OR of at least 146. Will all of the above achieve this, don't know yet.
# 10/12 - won LTO. Irascible was second LTO.
# 9/12 - ran in the previous 66 days prior to the race. Currently this only applies to Bob Olinger.
# 8/12 - were in the top 3 of the betting, which currently doesn't apply to Irascible.
# 9/12 - had won a graded hurdles race grade 1-3. So far only Bob Olinger, Bravemansgame and Irascible have won a graded hurdles race to this level.

Many of the above will run again prior to the Festival to alter the above quick assessment but at present Bob Olinger certainly seems to tick all of the boxes, wheras Appreciate It currently misses 3 of them.

Love a good trend myself. Great work, albeit slightly biased but still informative. I must add though, with such a big chunk of racing missing from 2020, it somewhat complicates things.

[Rooster Booster]

There’s a reason why lies, damn lies and statistics as a phrase has become hard wired into our vocabulary. You only have to listen to a multi party political debate (or punters defending their stance) Some stats no doubt are very robust but some if not many should likely come with a government health warning imo

[mayo]

Goes for the Supreme I think

Said this was the preferred race. Think they all got the fractions wrong apart from Denis.

[Run4Home]

Said this was the preferred race. Think they all got the fractions wrong apart from Denis.

Yes quite something to watch, looked dead and buried a few times.

[OverTheLast]

Is it true Henry said on RTV they are aiming Bob O for the supreme?!?

[skip]

I think Henry said 'aiming for the Spring'

[Hurdles or chasing]

He said SPRING
Dont mind that lad on twitter

[Another Value Loser]

https://www.racingtv.com/news/olinger-likely-to-bypass-dublin-date

Olinger likely to bypass Dublin date

“I would imagine we’ll skip Dublin. He’s entered in the two-miler, but I would imagine we’ll skip the Dublin Racing Festival.

“He’s been busy enough now, so we’ll back off him and aim him towards the spring.”

[Big Bucks]

https://www.racingtv.com/news/olinge...ss-dublin-date

Olinger likely to bypass Dublin date

“I would imagine we’ll skip Dublin. He’s entered in the two-miler, but I would imagine we’ll skip the Dublin Racing Festival.

“He’s been busy enough now, so we’ll back off him and aim him towards the spring.”

Here pretty much confirmed then? Or still just rule out supreme?