2021 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yeh, i think we have to be careful judging horses too soon, in particular novices we are still learning about, on heavy ground.
Not easy to quicken and produce turn of foot in that sort of ground, and in the case of Blue Lord,its no wonder he could not finish the race off as well as the winner,given the ground and his pulling during the race.
Of course an if is an if, but IF Blue Lord were to settle better at Cheltenham, and the ground is decent,then he can produce a different finish to his race. Whether thats good enough is another matter, but judging for me needs to be done a bit later than now.
Anyway, ive reacted by taking nrnb for the Ballymore, Blue Lord.

[OverTheLast]

Lovely story OverTheLast, that's an excellent position to be in. Have you covered Bravemansgame? He's a proper horse and by far the biggest danger at the moment to your win

I need to have a good think what way to play it. I’m considering leaving it close to the day of the race where I can’t see Bob O being more than a 2/1 shot - and potentially lay him for my stakes back.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Really? With BMG around I can’t see him being that short myself

[Moby123]

3/1 joint favs in my early tissue.

[Moby123]

* that's not a wank sock btw

[Quevega]

3/1 joint favs in my early tissue.

Do you keep charts to record these price estimates ?

[Moby123]

Do you keep charts to record these price estimates ?

No. I just review the non handicap races each day and tinker around with them depending on the latest news, quotes, any new form, or collateral from etc,
The prices total 100%, so for example in the Ballymore I have both Brave and Bob at 4.0 so would guess the actual SP's would be more like 11/4 joints to allow the bookmakers their margin.
I don't save the spreadsheets at the end of each day.
It can be hard not to get drawn into thinking the exchange prices/ bookmaker odds must be "about right" but it's important to try to not work off them as a starting point.

Some of the races like the Champion Hurdle have very little "slack" in them when you look at the likely field and the latest Betfair prices but other races such as the Ballymore are closer to 70% based on likely runners and current exchange prices. If you focus more of your attention on these races then it's a lot easier to come out ahead, and having your own opinion of a 100% book highlights which horses to hammer away at.

[DeeBee]

A very lazy comparison sees this years race ran 14 secs slower than what envoi did last year. I made the same comment on Ballyadams race and I was pointed out by many because they took about 10 seconds to get going at the start. As I say it’s a lazy comparison purely looking at the overall times. Not sure if anyone takes note of race times or sectionals and can add anything worthwhile

[Quevega]

No. I just review the non handicap races each day and tinker around with them depending on the latest news, quotes, any new form, or collateral from etc,
The prices total 100%, so for example in the Ballymore I have both Brave and Bob at 4.0 so would guess the actual SP's would be more like 11/4 joints to allow the bookmakers their margin.
I don't save the spreadsheets at the end of each day.
It can be hard not to get drawn into thinking the exchange prices/ bookmaker odds must be "about right" but it's important to try to not work off them as a starting point.

Some of the races like the Champion Hurdle have very little "slack" in them when you look at the likely field and the latest Betfair prices but other races such as the Ballymore are closer to 70% based on likely runners and current exchange prices. If you focus more of your attention on these races then it's a lot easier to come out ahead, and having your own opinion of a 100% book highlights which horses to hammer away at.

[Quevega]

A very lazy comparison sees this years race ran 14 secs slower than what envoi did last year. I made the same comment on Ballyadams race and I was pointed out by many because they took about 10 seconds to get going at the start. As I say it’s a lazy comparison purely looking at the overall times. Not sure if anyone takes note of race times or sectionals and can add anything worthwhile

Probably slightly upgrades Bob's run, as the ground was significantly worse. Heavy vs Yielding (good to yielding)

[Moby123]

A look at the times of the other hurdles races on the card indicate that the time was very good. As Quevega says the comparison with Envoi isn't any use really as the ground was slower.

[jack1092]

A very lazy comparison sees this years race ran 14 secs slower than what envoi did last year. I made the same comment on Ballyadams race and I was pointed out by many because they took about 10 seconds to get going at the start. As I say it’s a lazy comparison purely looking at the overall times. Not sure if anyone takes note of race times or sectionals and can add anything worthwhile

Obviously as Q has said, the grounds were completely different. Also, as Simon Rowlands and Tramore have highlighted.....the trips were more than likely not even the same.

[FrenchHolly]

As a Bob Olinger fan I was delighted with yesterdays performance, still think his jumping could be slicker but loved how strong he was at the finish. I can't believe he's not favourite to be honest? His first run against Ferney Hollow was a really good run and he was still available at 20s which surprised me as I've always seen him as 2.5m+ horse. I respect BMG but in my opinion his form is no stronger than BO and personally think it's Henry De Bromhead is still underestimated, whereas because of the Denman reference BMG price is shorter than it should be. Just hope BO has a clear run to Cheltenham and feel confident he will produce.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yeah i thought odds were generous after the race behind FH, maybe AI was still a likely runner at the time? not sure on that, but maybe would make sense.

[FrenchHolly]

Yeah i thought odds were generous after the race behind FH, maybe AI was still a likely runner at the time? not sure on that, but maybe would make sense.

Oh AI would have been going Ballymore if Ferney Hollow wasn't injured but seeing how quick the bookies are too cut horses for Cheltenham they seem to fancying their chances of getting Bob beat? A strange one alright.