2021 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Kevloaf]

PP only that low because of NRNB though

It's still them saying they feel he's a 12/1 shot for that race - which looks very, very stingy!

You'd expect 20/1+ on the day given connections surely!

[Quevega]

It's still them saying they feel he's a 12/1 shot for that race - which looks very, very stingy!

You'd expect 20/1+ on the day given connections surely!

If he doesn't run again, against better horses before then.
He'd have to be the rag. Or close to it.
Exchange prices would be big.

[Outlaw]

33-1 not a great price for that horses chances IMO.

Agreed nice engine but so novicey at his hurdles and yet to face anything, shame Farrellys didn’t run today I’d fancy him to give him a race,huge step up needed.

[Saxon Warrior]

BG will probably be 135 rating after that.

It’s currently way short of anything likely to figure in a Festival Grade 1.

If he had pretensions to running over 2M I would have thought he would have had a Betfair Hurdle entry given his low mark.
so the comment about mid-trips seems to ally with not having a Betfair Hurdle entry.

[Kevloaf]

If he doesn't run again, against better horses before then.
He'd have to be the rag. Or close to it.
Exchange prices would be big.

They might be.

I can't find definite runners though...and whilst he's far off some of the winning marks, just a quick look through at horses rated OR 140 or below over the last few years....


Bright Forecast 139 - 3rd
Burbank and Scarpeta both 134 - 4th
Bello Conto and Vigil 139 - 4th and 6th
Welsh Shadow 134 - 5th
Snow Falcon 131 - 5th
Ballyalton 140 - 2nd
Close House 118 - 4th
So Young 140 - 3rd



So, whilst he might get a rating near 135 .... I think he's worth more than that, can definitely believe he's 140+ - and therefore, not wild to back him in what I don't think will be a race littered with 150+ animals.....

I like him. He's unbeaten still, improving still and if he manages to not jump like a donkey he's a lively place contender.

[Quevega]

They might be.

I can't find definite runners though...and whilst he's far off some of the winning marks, just a quick look through at horses rated OR 140 or below over the last few years....


Bright Forecast 139 - 3rd
Burbank and Scarpeta both 134 - 4th
Bello Conto and Vigil 139 - 4th and 6th
Welsh Shadow 134 - 5th
Snow Falcon 131 - 5th
Ballyalton 140 - 2nd
Close House 118 - 4th
So Young 140 - 3rd



So, whilst he might get a rating near 135 .... I think he's worth more than that, can definitely believe he's 140+ - and therefore, not wild to back him in what I don't think will be a race littered with 150+ animals.....

I like him. He's unbeaten still, improving still and if he manages to not jump like a donkey he's a lively place contender.

It was a quiet day today. He's got a runner's chance.


Hand on heart, do you see this horse placing ?

Do you see the horse being available at 25-1+ come the day ?

Do you have just a touch of Bet Regret ?

[Garrison Savannah]

It's still them saying they feel he's a 12/1 shot for that race - which looks very, very stingy!

Maybe it is maybe it isn’t. He’s 6th fav with PP he’s 6th fav with 365. I’m not sure it’s stingy individually but it probably is collectively. One of the benefits of a big firm going NRNB early I think - they can afford to be stingy. Punters wanting NRNB have little or no alternative, therefore no reason for PP to be overly generous - they’re going to get your money in their bank anyway.

[Kevloaf]

It was a quiet day today. He's got a runner's chance.


Hand on heart, do you see this horse placing ?

Do you see the horse being available at 25-1+ come the day ?

Do you have just a touch of Bet Regret ?

Hand on heart, do you see this horse placing ?
Yes I can obviously see him placing... the market has a UK horse that's won the Challow heading the market, and Gordon has nothing and Willie's two both have question marks. Not a deep race at all at the moment. If I had to pick one horse, it obviously wouldn't be him...

Do you see the horse being available at 25-1+ come the day ?
No not each way- PP going 12/1 NRNB is enough of a guide of what his price may be.

Do you have just a touch of Bet Regret ?
No - I've already got 36/1 about a 25/1 at best shot... if I do that every time I make a bet I'll be pleased



So aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh


I hope he wins the Ballymore and KB returns to smite you Quevega

[Spectre]

I'll answer the same questions.

I think he can place and the price is fair enough. I backed him early at 40's though so I may be biased. His jumping can be sketchy so I wouldn't back him in the Supreme, he still needs to sharpen up, but plenty of dodgy jumpers have run well in the Ballymore, and some have won.

I think his price on the day will be in the 10/1-16/1 range. That's if he doesn't run again.

I have no regrets about 40/1 and I'd have been tempted to add him at 25/1 if I hadn't.

[Quevega]

Hand on heart, do you see this horse placing ?
Yes I can obviously see him placing... the market has a UK horse that's won the Challow heading the market, and Gordon has nothing and Willie's two both have question marks. Not a deep race at all at the moment. If I had to pick one horse, it obviously wouldn't be him...

Do you see the horse being available at 25-1+ come the day ?
No not each way- PP going 12/1 NRNB is enough of a guide of what his price may be.

Do you have just a touch of Bet Regret ?
No - I've already got 36/1 about a 25/1 at best shot... if I do that every time I make a bet I'll be pleased



So aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh

1, Yep- it's all about opinion and I respect you obviously can see him placing, as you've bet him.

2. PP are mugging people off.
Think you know that.

3. We'll probably forget this minor discussion come the day, as I doubt very much this horse will be on my mind, but if we do remember it will be interesting to see his price on the day. WE won't remember though.

[Kevloaf]

1, Yep- it's all about opinion and I respect you obviously can see him placing, as you've bet him.

2. PP are mugging people off.
Think you know that.

3. We'll probably forget this minor discussion come the day, as I doubt very much this horse will be on my mind, but if we do remember it will be interesting to see his price on the day. WE won't remember though.

1. Yeah, could look very silly as the race could end up with a big field but I feel it'll be little at the moment.... I could even end up 'booking' the thing.

2. Yeah, it's a horrible price but suits my arguement as I'm sure you can tell haha.

3. If I'm thinking about Bear Ghylls on the Wednesday, it'll be a bad day.

[Quevega]

1. Yeah, could look very silly as the race could end up with a big field but I feel it'll be little at the moment.... I could even end up 'booking' the thing.

2. Yeah, it's a horrible price but suits my arguement as I'm sure you can tell haha.

3. If I'm thinking about Bear Ghylls on the Wednesday, it'll be a bad day.

Especially if you're at the bottom of a ravine with a fractured Tibia.
And drinking your own piss.

In fact that's a good analogy of how I'd rate your bet , as I'm sure you can tell

[Kevloaf]

I remember watching him squeeze water out of elephant dung.

That's my analogy of finding usefulness in your posts.

Ziiiiiiing

[Quevega]

I remember watching him squeeze water out of elephant dung.

That's my analogy of finding usefulness in your posts.

Ziiiiiiing

- I agree.

There's always something in there, just not that easy to tell it apart from all the Shite.

[Pendil]

Wonder will Bear Ghylls take up his declaration for Wetherby on Tuesday under a penalty. Sure they made it with Exeter in doubt but a bit more practise would help and he had an easy race today.
With BG it is worth looking back at his bumper race and the subsequent form of those that were well beaten