2021 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Ice]

I'm liking Bob for this also, backed him in a win today/ballymore double back in January.

[DenmanSacre]

Haha. Very little love for GDM on the preview circuit, which surprises me - given many of these people often get it wrong I doubt GDM backers are too worried. I am going to wait until the day re GDM - he's not in the book yet, but I can see lots of people in the UK backing BMG, and BO seems to be far more popular than GDM at the moment. If that continues and he were to drift out to 4/1 then I'd definitely back him. I just missed the original price is all

Same for me. I don't think he will win, but I plan to add him with whoever has the money back if placed promotions. Can't see him out of the first 3 but I think he is behind BO and BMG.

[Lobos]

Yeah I see.

I personally think Appreciate It would be a short priced, and genuine fav in the Ballymore. I genuinely don't think any of the 3 could beat him... in fact, I think if GDM got injured and Willie said they're going Ballymore with him, Bob Olinger would go Supreme as he's have a much better chance on winning.

It's actually, probably a really clever risk-free NRNB bet.... based on GDM getting injured. Even then it might not happen but their respective NRNB are way off.



Anyway, I think Keskonrisk is decent in either, and as a pure E/W play I see your point.

Even if Appreciate It went Ballymore it's very unlikely BO would switch. Even more so now with Henry having Ballyadam. Henry was disappointed BO got beat first time up v Ferney as he thought he'd win. That tells me how much they think of him and suggests he'd not run from Appreciate It.

[ToniC]

Henry is absolutely the type of trainer that will go for the race he thinks suits the horse best, regardless of opposition. If you could build from scratch a perfect Ballymore horse, you’d pretty much end up with Bob Olinger IMO, he’s the most likely winner of this for me and will be some chaser next year

[Nortons who]

For a win bet, I just can't currently see beyond the Top 3 in this and frankly now I have stopped looking.

Even if one of them was to drop out I don't think I would be covering anything else now. I might have a few TWARs end up here but with zero expectation of them winning. For me its BO, BMG and GDM all the way and in that order, so I might have a small go with the TriCast.

[ToniC]

For a win bet, I just can't currently see beyond the Top 3 in this and frankly now I have stopped looking.

Even if one of them was to drop out I don't think I would be covering anything else now. I might have a few TWARs end up here but with zero expectation of them winning. For me its BO, BMG and GDM all the way and in that order, so I might have a small go with the TriCast.

I’ve just had a look at the Oddschecker market for this and of the 11 horses under 33/1 in the market there’s only 1 or 2 that are intended/likely runners outside of the top 3. There’s probably a good each way bet in there somewhere if you can find a guaranteed runner at a bigger price but This one could be a small field and I’ll be astounded if something beats one of the top 3.

[Istabraq]

I’ve just had a look at the Oddschecker market for this and of the 11 horses under 33/1 in the market there’s only 1 or 2 that are intended/likely runners outside of the top 3. There’s probably a good each way bet in there somewhere if you can find a guaranteed runner at a bigger price but This one could be a small field and I’ll be astounded if something beats one of the top 3.

There’s probably no need to play now, every chance someone goes 4/5 places on the day which gives you a huge increased chance of landing a place...

[Splinterboy82]

There’s probably no need to play now, every chance someone goes 4/5 places on the day which gives you a huge increased chance of landing a place...

Unless any late switches, I’m finding it difficult to see more than 8-10 runners in this....especially with a strong top 3. Can’t see why anyone would go ew more than the 3 if small field but they do weird & whacky things with the first race of the day. Could see the old money back if you’re second or something as opposed to extra ew places....

[Istabraq]

Unless any late switches, I’m finding it difficult to see more than 8-10 runners in this....especially with a strong top 3. Can’t see why anyone would go ew more than the 3 if small field but they do weird & whacky things with the first race of the day. Could see the old money back if you’re second or something as opposed to extra ew places....

Of course, if you think it’s a single figure field you’re right and unlikely to get more than the 3.
You can play 4 places on the exchange on the day if 8 or more are declared...

[Lobos]

There’s probably no need to play now, every chance someone goes 4/5 places on the day which gives you a huge increased chance of landing a place...

Agree with most on here that top 3 will dominate race. No value at all imo of betting anything else , even in the place only market as there's very little wriggle room. Certainly no point wasting the win bet of Ew. Perhaps they'll do a 'without top 3' market to entice people in ??

[delsie777]

There’s probably no need to play now, every chance someone goes 4/5 places on the day which gives you a huge increased chance of landing a place...

Unlikely. Could end up with 4/5 runners!

[luisgarciaisgod]

Infuriating that Skelton hasn't entered My Drogo here given how weak this field is looking.

[darlojim]

Infuriating that Skelton hasn't entered My Drogo here given how weak this field is looking.

you think BMG, bob and GDM are 'weak' rivals?

[DenmanSacre]

Infuriating that Skelton hasn't entered My Drogo here given how weak this field is looking.

The Supreme would have been a much easier field to beat.

[luisgarciaisgod]

you think BMG, bob and GDM are 'weak' rivals?

Gonna get stick for this but yeah.

Lots of chat about Bob Olinger but the form isn't overly spectacular to me. Defeat by Ferny Hollow over 2m then beating a 2miler in Blue Lord and rubbish like Crosshill and Ashdale Bob who haven't done much for the form since.

GDM looked good at the DRF but beat a ragtag collection of 2milers in Cape Gentleman and horses that need further in Gentlemansgame and Stattler. Also the defeat to Holymacapony over 2m4 doesn't look overly great.

BMG was beaten by Soaring Glory who was then beaten My Drogo by 6l. Although that was over 2m and BMG needs further My Drogo showed today that he'd appreciate further too. BMG has looked good since that defeat although I'd question the form of the horses he beat.