2021 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[Kevloaf]

It's come right into 7/1 with Skybet now but they still have it too big I reckon.
The Big 3 to fill the first three places in any order nrnb.
Other than Bear Ghylls I'm struggling to see credible opponents likely to turn up.....maybe Keskonrisk, Gentleman de Mee?

It's a fair old leap for Bear Ghylls as well isn't it.... backed him quite whimsically after he won and the plan was for him to go up in grade and him earn his place... he missed that engagement and he looks like being the 'correct' 4th fav?!

Gentleman De Mee I think would be a more likely winner / shorter price if he ran. I'd have thought Keskonrisk would go Supreme.



It looks a bit like that RSA field did with Santini, Delta Work at Topofthegame ..... then again, the CH looked the same that year with Laurina, Apple's Jade and Buveur D'air

[riccirich]

It's a fair old leap for Bear Ghylls as well isn't it.... backed him quite whimsically after he won and the plan was for him to go up in grade and him earn his place... he missed that engagement and he looks like being the 'correct' 4th fav?!

Gentleman De Mee I think would be a more likely winner / shorter price if he ran. I'd have thought Keskonrisk would go Supreme.



It looks a bit like that RSA field did with Santini, Delta Work at Topofthegame ..... then again, the CH looked the same that year with Laurina, Apple's Jade and Buveur D'air

Keskonrisk is one ive actually started to look at for supreme/ballymore and he is one that I have a feeling could find a big chunk of improvement for better ground.

He was withdrawn from the drf due to unsuitably soft ground, which imo means you could mark up his third place run behind appreciate it at xmas, which was also on soft ground, and he was also very weak in the market that day which possibly indicates that not a lot was expected from him on that going.

He has a fair bit of ground to make up on appreciate it on that run, but a far from impossible amount, considering he finished ahead of ballyadam at xmas, who albeit probably underperformed.

With better ground at cheltenham most likely to suit keskonrisk more than appreciate it, I could definitely see him narrowing the gap, and i'd expect him to go off a lot shorter than current prices.

[Kevloaf]

Keskonrisk is one ive actually started to look at for supreme/ballymore and he is one that I have a feeling could find a big chunk of improvement for better ground.

He was withdrawn from the drf due to unsuitably soft ground, which imo means you could mark up his third place run behind appreciate it at xmas, which was also on soft ground, and he was also very weak in the market that day which possibly indicates that not a lot was expected from him on that going.

He has a fair bit of ground to make up on appreciate it on that run, but a far from impossible amount, considering he finished ahead of ballyadam at xmas, who albeit probably underperformed.

With better ground at cheltenham most likely to suit keskonrisk more than appreciate it, I could definitely see him narrowing the gap, and i'd expect him to go off a lot shorter than current prices.

On balance the 33/1 NRNB is probably quite a fair price

[riccirich]

On balance the 33/1 NRNB is probably quite a fair price

I think so. Showed a fair turn of foot on debut aswell, which you would imagine would be seen to better effect if the ground is good to soft.

[Moby123]

Seems to be speedy and stays on well at the end of it's races too. With it being a JO'B horse there is a case for hoping it hasn't shown it's best form over the winter, but having said that the stable from still isn't great.

His half brother Grand Sancy didn't want it too soft so there is potential for improvement on better ground but 33s sounds about right for an each way play. I agree that the Supreme is most likely but the Ballymore wouldn't be a huge surprise either given they were 12 lengths behind Appreciate It last time and may be hoping that going up in trip will bring about some improvement.

[Altior]

....before all this kicked off, I had it in mind that Ballyadam could switch to the Ballymore.

On what basis? Never ran further than 2 in his life and has a G1 this year. Ran very well against Appreciate It LTO putting to bed the Xmas run, and every chance he pushes on more in 2 weeks with better suiting ground.

[ComplyOrDie]

On what basis? Never ran further than 2 in his life and has a G1 this year. Ran very well against Appreciate It LTO putting to bed the Xmas run, and every chance he pushes on more in 2 weeks with better suiting ground.

Technically not true.

Won a P2P over 3m.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Keskonrisk is one ive actually started to look at for supreme/ballymore and he is one that I have a feeling could find a big chunk of improvement for better ground.

He was withdrawn from the drf due to unsuitably soft ground, which imo means you could mark up his third place run behind appreciate it at xmas, which was also on soft ground, and he was also very weak in the market that day which possibly indicates that not a lot was expected from him on that going.

He has a fair bit of ground to make up on appreciate it on that run, but a far from impossible amount, considering he finished ahead of ballyadam at xmas, who albeit probably underperformed.

With better ground at cheltenham most likely to suit keskonrisk more than appreciate it, I could definitely see him narrowing the gap, and i'd expect him to go off a lot shorter than current prices.

Totally agree, he could well be one of those that is much improved for better ground, i think he will prove to be, and current odds could well look value on the day if indeed the ground is better than hes been running on.

[Eggs]

On what basis? Never ran further than 2 in his life and has a G1 this year. Ran very well against Appreciate It LTO putting to bed the Xmas run, and every chance he pushes on more in 2 weeks with better suiting ground.

.....nothing more than a feeling, but it’s stopped me cashing in a 40-1 voucher for the Ballymore. Already beaten twice by AI, the early season stable tour suggested ‘he would start over 2m and see how it goes’. If I recall rightly, it won comfortably over longer in its P2P days & finishes its races strongly. Elliott didn’t have much ammunition, so perhaps the Ballymore was its best chance rather than taking on AI again.

[DeeBee]

.....nothing more than a feeling, but it’s stopped me cashing in a 40-1 voucher for the Ballymore. Already beaten twice by AI, the early season stable tour suggested ‘he would start over 2m and see how it goes’. If I recall rightly, it won comfortably over longer in its P2P days & finishes its races strongly. Elliott didn’t have much ammunition, so perhaps the Ballymore was its best chance rather than taking on AI again.

May as well cash the 40s when you can get 80s on the machine. Like many I had Ballyadam for here and had lots of multiples with him but gave up a few months ago that he’d run anywhere other than the Supreme

[Eggs]

May as well cash the 40s when you can get 80s on the machine. Like many I had Ballyadam for here and had lots of multiples with him but gave up a few months ago that he’d run anywhere other than the Supreme

.....unfortunately, cash-out options are currently unavailable with 365.

[Kevloaf]

Matt Tombs makes some interesting points around 46 minutes about the Ballymore:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcB9c-ME-oQ

He likes Keskonrisk too

[Faugheen_Machine]

Matt Tombs makes some interesting points around 46 minutes about the Ballymore:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcB9c-ME-oQ

He likes Keskonrisk too

I like Keskonrisk but for the other race. It's quite easy to make a case for him improving but I hadn't really considered the Ballymore. I'd love him to be a decent price with extra places on offer in the Supreme.

[Might_Bite]

Couldn't agree more FM, if youre getting 20s+ when hills bring in their offer thats a bet.

Unless they thought going up in trip would bring out huge improvement, I don't understand why they would go Ballymore rather than Supreme.

[Kevloaf]

I like Keskonrisk but for the other race. It's quite easy to make a case for him improving but I hadn't really considered the Ballymore. I'd love him to be a decent price with extra places on offer in the Supreme.

At 33s NRNB, you propbably should at least consider him here?

Despite 3 "good" horses at the top, the depth behind them is pretty flakey?

I'm warming to him more and more.