2021 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[charlie]

If Appreciate It came out of the supreme.
Where would you run Bob ?

I reckon that's why it's best to leave the door open.

Supreme. I wouldn't put it past them taking on AI - I don't think his fence sitting has anything to do with waiting for something to happen to AI

[FrenchHolly]

I think it’s sensible to not to commit until you have to? Might drive some punters mad but they don’t pay the bills and the trainer has to do best by the horse and connections. For what it’s worth unless the ground comes up bottomless BO will come here and not the Supreme. But if AI did miss the Supreme for some reason then it would have to come under consideration as without AI I think the Supreme is the easier race.

[fitzy78]

Personally I think Apreciate It was never considered Mullins best novice hurdler and was always behind Ferny. Bob O running Ferny so close tells me Bob has the beating of AI. And reading comments how high Hdb and Rachel hold Bob leaves me thinking they believe they have the beating. I just think ground conditions might be the key to where he runs.

[Quevega]

Supreme. I wouldn't put it past them taking on AI - I don't think his fence sitting has anything to do with waiting for something to happen to AI

anything ?
Not one little bit ?

I don't think so.
If Appreciate It came out of the race they'd be off the fence so fast they'd have arse burns.

[Kevloaf]

Personally I think Apreciate It was never considered Mullins best novice hurdler and was always behind Ferny. Bob O running Ferny so close tells me Bob has the beating of AI. And reading comments how high Hdb and Rachel hold Bob leaves me thinking they believe they have the beating. I just think ground conditions might be the key to where he runs.

I would strongly, strongly dispute that. All of it.

I don't believe at all they feel Ferny Hollow is a better horse than Appreciate It, they've not once indicated that, if anything they showed surprise that FH did beat AI? I think over obstacles, AI was always and will always be held in higher regard.

I also strongly dispute Bob O being beaten by Ferny Hollow proves Bob Olinger has the beating of Appreciate It. It's the 'best' way to get Appreciate It beaten, as it's unknown (one of the reasons I backed and made the case to back Bob Olinger at 14/1 NRNB) however, Ferny Hollow beating Bob Olinger isn't evidence that BOb Olinger would beat Appreciate It.... that ignores just how good (and how much Appreciate It has improved) for an obstacle IMO.


Ultimately, I think they'll run Bob Olinger in the race that suits him most, which is probably the Ballymore unless worse than soft.

[charlie]

anything ?
Not one little bit ?

I don't think so.
If Appreciate It came out of the race they'd be off the fence so fast they'd have arse burns.

Sure, but it's not indecision based on AI being withdrawn, its them deciding which option makes sense

[Kevloaf]

Sure, but it's not indecision based on AI being withdrawn, its them deciding which option makes sense

What's the reason the Supreme would make sense though?

It's that there's only 1 good horse to beat...

In the Ballymore it looks like being 2.


I think if Appreciate It was out, it'd be certain they'd come here..... if AI stays in, they'll probably take on GDM and BMG, as they don't look as good as AI, relatively.



To repeat myself though, 14/1 and 12/1 NRNB are just obvious... there's no reason not to take them if you like making money, or not losing money.

[charlie]

What's the reason the Supreme would make sense though?

It's that there's only 1 good horse to beat...

In the Ballymore it looks like being 2.

I think if Appreciate It was out, it'd be certain they'd come here..... if AI stays in, they'll probably take on GDM and BMG, as they don't look as good as AI, relatively.

He was a shade too keen from beating what would be the supreme fav in FH on debut, and HDB has just said he pitted BO vs FH thinking he'd win, over 2m. That alone seems reason enough to me, plus the Ballymore looks more competitive

[Kevloaf]

He was a shade too keen from beating what would be the supreme fav in FH on debut, and HDB has just said he pitted BO vs FH thinking he'd win, over 2m. That alone seems reason enough to me, plus the Ballymore looks more competitive

I don't like the "more competitive" arguement.

The Championship is more competitive than La Liga, doesn't mean it's easier to win La Liga because it's less competitive!


For me, Appreciate It is much harder to beat than GDM and BMG....

AI would be fav in the Ballymore I have absolutely zero doubt.... he's better than GDM, and GDM is fav.



This bullishness about beating Ferny Hollow (which was technically wrong) being used as evidence he'd beat Appreciate It is such a leap?! For starters, it's bumper form that it hinges on. Taking it literally that FH is a better novice hurdler than AI is bonkers. Unproven and if that's the case for the defense, good luck!

[charlie]

I don't like the "more competitive" arguement.

The Championship is more competitive than La Liga, doesn't mean it's easier to win La Liga because it's less competitive!


For me, Appreciate It is much harder to beat than GDM and BMG....

AI would be fav in the Ballymore I have absolutely zero doubt.... he's better than GDM, and GDM is fav.

This bullishness about beating Ferny Hollow (which was technically wrong) being used as evidence he'd beat Appreciate It is such a leap?! For starters, it's bumper form that it hinges on. Taking it literally that FH is a better novice hurdler than AI is bonkers. Unproven and if that's the case for the defense, good luck!

Neither do I, I am not worried about GDM

Given your ludicrous depth of knowledge re Cheltenham that Championship analogy is

Give a shit re bumper form.

[Kevloaf]

Neither do I, I am not worried about GDM

Given your ludicrous depth of knowledge re Cheltenham that Championship analogy is

Give a shit re bumper form.

Haha, it's just different level for me.

Appreciate It is a level above.

The Ballymore is more competitive for Bob Olinger because he's not at that level.



If Appreciate It rocked up in the Ballymore, he's fav. There is no question.



Appreciate It is Madrid...

Bob Olinger is Leeds.




It comes down to, I am adament Appreciate It would have beaten Ferny Hollow, over any distance, over hurdles. I klnow not everyone shares that view...so far enough. I do, I've backed accordingly.

Bob O is a great winner for me, Appreciate It is too, so is GDM.... it's not my pocket leading it....

I just believe the arguement for thinking Bob O would beat Appreciate It, is weak as fuck.

[charlie]

Haha, it's just different level for me.

Appreciate It is a level above.

The Ballymore is more competitive for Bob Olinger because he's not at that level.

If Appreciate It rocked up in the Ballymore, he's fav. There is no question.

Appreciate It is Madrid...

Bob Olinger is Leeds.

Each his own.

I agree.

I strongly disagree.

I agree.

Sure, Athletico, he rolled with a punch...

Bob Olinger has done nothing to be labelled scum

Loving this exchange btw

[Kevloaf]

Each his own.

I agree.

I strongly disagree.

I agree.

Sure, Athletico, he rolled with a punch...

Bob Olinger has done nothing to be labelled scum

Loving this exchange btw

Strongly disagree that Bob Olinger isn't at that level?

I'm saying I think he's not at AI's level, not that he's not at BMG or GDM's....

I don't think Bob O is above them...and I think he's below AI.

[charlie]

Strongly disagree that Bob Olinger isn't at that level?

I'm saying I think he's not at AI's level, not that he's not at BMG or GDM's....

I don't think Bob O is above them...and I think he's below AI.

AI is probably better than BO over 2m but not definitely, but I think AI would definitely beat BO over further. Hence why I think HDB is tempted

I still have BO ahead of GDM for this.

[Kevloaf]

AI is probably better than BO over 2m but not definitely, but I think AI would definitely beat BO over further. Hence why I think HDB is tempted

I still have BO ahead of GDM for this.

For me, it's definitely.... (in the realms of obviously not definitely, because that's stupid, but I would be as confident as I could be)