Tweet
Yesterday was tough. But then the tide may have turned. Four horses in the first two races but none of them winning and three placing summed up the way it was going. And then Altior and Tiger Roll won, before Band of Outlaws won the handicap. To have the front two in the market for the RSA at 16s and 10s and end up losing in that race was hard to swallow. Anyway, onto day three..
1:30 – JLT Novices Chase
Lostintranslation and DEFI DE SEUILL (10/3) have been beating each other this season with the latter getting to the front too soon when beating here on New Year’s Day. However, I believe Defi is simply a better horse. He’s classy, he likes this course and is a very fair favourite. The 2017 Triumph Hurdle winner knows how to win and has a great chance at a surprisingly bigger price than expected at 10/3. Lostintranslation may want it a bit further too but will be staying on up the Cheltenham hill. They both finished ahead of Vinndication who was swerving this until the last minute but has had an interrupted prep. I have also played REAL STEEL (13/2 E/W) who has looked a good chaser at a lower level this season. He fell on his fencing debut when cruising and has won twice easily since. He was an excellent hurdler so has the class to go with these and could have the turn of foot to snatch it off the front two.
1 – Defi De Seuill 10/3
2 – Lostintranslation 7/2
3 – Real Steel 13/2
2:10 – Pertemps Final
The Irish qualifier for this at Christmas is often a race to follow for this Pertemps Final and SIRE DU BERLAIS (6/1 E/W) was an eyecather when sixth. He finished a staying on fourth in the Martin Pipe last season and this trip should suit. Samburu Shujaa searches for the hat trick but has taken a handicap hike and would need a career best whilst Notwhatiam has been very well supported this week which could be significant. This race has delivered a plot or two over the years. Cuneo goes for Rachael Blackmore and isn’t without a chance and the same can be said for FIRST ASSIGNMENT (12/1 E/W) who is a Cheltenham winner twice this season. He ran an ok race last time at Warwick but would have been primed for this. A Toi Phil looks overpriced on his best form but is not one to rely on.
1 – Sire Du Berlais 6/1
2 – First Assignment 12/1
3 – Notwhatiam 12/1
2:50 - Ryanair Chase
Footpad was stunning last year in a poor Arkle after dominating he novice chase division all year. He has lots of class but has been poor this season by his standards and needs to be near his best to be a player in this red-hot renewal of the Ryanair Chase. Last year’s winner Balko Des Flos has his ground but has not looked in last year’s form this season whilst Road To Respect should go best of the three for Gigginstown in Michael O’Leary’s bid to win the race he sponsors. Terrefort was put in his place by Gold Cup candidate Clan Des Obeaux at Ascot whilst Frodon may just find one or two too classy. Selection instead goes to MONALEE (9/2) who may relish this trip and the ability to bowl along up front and use his tactical speed down the hill to get them all off the bridle. It’ll take a big ride from Rachael Blackmore to time this right but he could have them all in trouble if he gets into his jumping rhythm. Un De Sceaux is a previous winner who ran a stormer behind Altior this season but is getting on now and might be outstayed up the Cheltenham hill.
1 – Monalee 9/2
2 – Road To Respect 9/2
3 – Frodon 7/1
3:30 – Stayers Hurdle
Supasundae ran a good race behind Penhill in this last season when Bacardys fell at the last in contention to place. Both should go well but take on two new classy rivals here. FAUGHEEN (9/2 E/W) is the people’s champion and has reportedly worked brilliant as of late and looks a great each way bet at 9/2 with Betway paying for places. He will get this trip as shown with his awesome performance when beating Penhill at Punchestown and could send the crowds into rapture with a win. Black Op and Top Notch are solid yardsticks from Britain but both were destroyed by PAISLEY PARK (15/8) who relished the hill. He’s undoubtedly been the UK best staying hurdler this season and can confirm that here but has a harder task by taking on some good horses from Ireland. He will need some pace to aim at but it’s a big field and likely to have a true gallop which makes him the one to beat. Yanworth could be overpriced if coming on for his run last time after a break.
1 – Paisley Park 15/8
2 – Faugheen 9/2
3 – Yanworth 33/1
4:10 – Brown Plate
A typically wide open renewal of the Plate now but Siruc Du Lac takes on JANIKA (9/2 E/W) again. The former beat the latter but has risen in the weights whilst the latter can overturn that form with the rain likely to suit. He won three times on heavy in France and this looks an ideal chance for him. He’s ultra-consistent so is a slid each way bet to nothing at 5-places. I have also had a small bet on KALONDRA (14/1 E/W) despite a disappointing break when last seen. He’s had a break since and saves his best runs for here and could be a dark horse.
1 – Janika 9/2
2 – Siruh Du lac 13/2
3 – Kalondra 14/1
4:50 – Mares Novice Hurdle
One of my biggest bets of the week now. EPATANTE (NAP at 5/2) has looked superb for Nicky Henderson on both of her UK starts. She showed a blistering turn of foot on her UK debut at Kempton before hacking up at Exeter on the bridle. She was a Grade 1 bumper winner in France and I believe she should be 4/5 for this with her main market rival Honeysuckle out of the race with an injury. If Epatante was a Willie Mullins horse for this, how short would she be? Posh Trish has to give Epatante weight but is very solid and will give her all but the officially top rated Mare may find Epatante just too classy. Ruby Walsh is on My Sister Sarah which suggests she’s the best of Willie Mullins seven. Elusive Belle is held in high regard by Nicky Henderson who couldn’t hold a stronger hand for this race.
1 – Epatante 5/2
2 – Posh Trish 6/1
3 – Elusive Belle 14/1
5:30 – Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Measureofmydreams comes into this after running well in third last time after a 667 day absence. He will be a big player if coming on for the run as expected. He’s a bit short though at 5/1 in a ride wide open as always. He does have the brilliant Jamie Codd on board though which is a big plus in these Amateur races. Touck Kick can outrun his odds at a nice price whilst The Young Master ran uncharacteristically poorly last time. Derek O’Connor and Patrick Mullins ride Any Second Now and Livelovelaugh so they need to be considered carefully. My two for this are IT’S ALL GUESSWORK (10/1 E/W) and KILFILUM CROSS (14/1 E/W). The former was an eyecatcher over hurdles last time in a Pertemps qualifier but is back over fences today off just 11st 1lb. The latter is an interesting horse having been massively backed last time from 6/1 into 6/4 on his debut for the yard and the whisper is this was the long-term aim for Henry Oliver. There has been money for this horse recently for today and he could just be very well handicapped.
1 – It’s All Guesswork 10/1
2 – Kilfilum Cross 14/1
3 – Measureofmydreams 5/1
Day 3 bets:
1:30 – Defi De Seuill 10/3 & Real Steel E/W 13/2
2:10 – Sire Du Berlais 6/1 E/W & First Assignment 12/1 E/W
2:50 – Monalee 14/1 E/W (antepost) & 9/2
3:30 – Paisley Park 15/8 & Faugheen 9/2 E/W
4:10 – Janika 9/2 E/W & Kalondra 14/1 E/W
4:50 – Epatante (NAP) 5/1 (antepost) & 5/2
5:30 – It’s All Guesswork 10/1 E/W & Kilfilum Cross 16/1 E/W
1:30 – JLT Novices Chase
Lostintranslation and DEFI DE SEUILL (10/3) have been beating each other this season with the latter getting to the front too soon when beating here on New Year’s Day. However, I believe Defi is simply a better horse. He’s classy, he likes this course and is a very fair favourite. The 2017 Triumph Hurdle winner knows how to win and has a great chance at a surprisingly bigger price than expected at 10/3. Lostintranslation may want it a bit further too but will be staying on up the Cheltenham hill. They both finished ahead of Vinndication who was swerving this until the last minute but has had an interrupted prep. I have also played REAL STEEL (13/2 E/W) who has looked a good chaser at a lower level this season. He fell on his fencing debut when cruising and has won twice easily since. He was an excellent hurdler so has the class to go with these and could have the turn of foot to snatch it off the front two.
1 – Defi De Seuill 10/3
2 – Lostintranslation 7/2
3 – Real Steel 13/2
2:10 – Pertemps Final
The Irish qualifier for this at Christmas is often a race to follow for this Pertemps Final and SIRE DU BERLAIS (6/1 E/W) was an eyecather when sixth. He finished a staying on fourth in the Martin Pipe last season and this trip should suit. Samburu Shujaa searches for the hat trick but has taken a handicap hike and would need a career best whilst Notwhatiam has been very well supported this week which could be significant. This race has delivered a plot or two over the years. Cuneo goes for Rachael Blackmore and isn’t without a chance and the same can be said for FIRST ASSIGNMENT (12/1 E/W) who is a Cheltenham winner twice this season. He ran an ok race last time at Warwick but would have been primed for this. A Toi Phil looks overpriced on his best form but is not one to rely on.
1 – Sire Du Berlais 6/1
2 – First Assignment 12/1
3 – Notwhatiam 12/1
2:50 - Ryanair Chase
Footpad was stunning last year in a poor Arkle after dominating he novice chase division all year. He has lots of class but has been poor this season by his standards and needs to be near his best to be a player in this red-hot renewal of the Ryanair Chase. Last year’s winner Balko Des Flos has his ground but has not looked in last year’s form this season whilst Road To Respect should go best of the three for Gigginstown in Michael O’Leary’s bid to win the race he sponsors. Terrefort was put in his place by Gold Cup candidate Clan Des Obeaux at Ascot whilst Frodon may just find one or two too classy. Selection instead goes to MONALEE (9/2) who may relish this trip and the ability to bowl along up front and use his tactical speed down the hill to get them all off the bridle. It’ll take a big ride from Rachael Blackmore to time this right but he could have them all in trouble if he gets into his jumping rhythm. Un De Sceaux is a previous winner who ran a stormer behind Altior this season but is getting on now and might be outstayed up the Cheltenham hill.
1 – Monalee 9/2
2 – Road To Respect 9/2
3 – Frodon 7/1
3:30 – Stayers Hurdle
Supasundae ran a good race behind Penhill in this last season when Bacardys fell at the last in contention to place. Both should go well but take on two new classy rivals here. FAUGHEEN (9/2 E/W) is the people’s champion and has reportedly worked brilliant as of late and looks a great each way bet at 9/2 with Betway paying for places. He will get this trip as shown with his awesome performance when beating Penhill at Punchestown and could send the crowds into rapture with a win. Black Op and Top Notch are solid yardsticks from Britain but both were destroyed by PAISLEY PARK (15/8) who relished the hill. He’s undoubtedly been the UK best staying hurdler this season and can confirm that here but has a harder task by taking on some good horses from Ireland. He will need some pace to aim at but it’s a big field and likely to have a true gallop which makes him the one to beat. Yanworth could be overpriced if coming on for his run last time after a break.
1 – Paisley Park 15/8
2 – Faugheen 9/2
3 – Yanworth 33/1
4:10 – Brown Plate
A typically wide open renewal of the Plate now but Siruc Du Lac takes on JANIKA (9/2 E/W) again. The former beat the latter but has risen in the weights whilst the latter can overturn that form with the rain likely to suit. He won three times on heavy in France and this looks an ideal chance for him. He’s ultra-consistent so is a slid each way bet to nothing at 5-places. I have also had a small bet on KALONDRA (14/1 E/W) despite a disappointing break when last seen. He’s had a break since and saves his best runs for here and could be a dark horse.
1 – Janika 9/2
2 – Siruh Du lac 13/2
3 – Kalondra 14/1
4:50 – Mares Novice Hurdle
One of my biggest bets of the week now. EPATANTE (NAP at 5/2) has looked superb for Nicky Henderson on both of her UK starts. She showed a blistering turn of foot on her UK debut at Kempton before hacking up at Exeter on the bridle. She was a Grade 1 bumper winner in France and I believe she should be 4/5 for this with her main market rival Honeysuckle out of the race with an injury. If Epatante was a Willie Mullins horse for this, how short would she be? Posh Trish has to give Epatante weight but is very solid and will give her all but the officially top rated Mare may find Epatante just too classy. Ruby Walsh is on My Sister Sarah which suggests she’s the best of Willie Mullins seven. Elusive Belle is held in high regard by Nicky Henderson who couldn’t hold a stronger hand for this race.
1 – Epatante 5/2
2 – Posh Trish 6/1
3 – Elusive Belle 14/1
5:30 – Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Measureofmydreams comes into this after running well in third last time after a 667 day absence. He will be a big player if coming on for the run as expected. He’s a bit short though at 5/1 in a ride wide open as always. He does have the brilliant Jamie Codd on board though which is a big plus in these Amateur races. Touck Kick can outrun his odds at a nice price whilst The Young Master ran uncharacteristically poorly last time. Derek O’Connor and Patrick Mullins ride Any Second Now and Livelovelaugh so they need to be considered carefully. My two for this are IT’S ALL GUESSWORK (10/1 E/W) and KILFILUM CROSS (14/1 E/W). The former was an eyecatcher over hurdles last time in a Pertemps qualifier but is back over fences today off just 11st 1lb. The latter is an interesting horse having been massively backed last time from 6/1 into 6/4 on his debut for the yard and the whisper is this was the long-term aim for Henry Oliver. There has been money for this horse recently for today and he could just be very well handicapped.
1 – It’s All Guesswork 10/1
2 – Kilfilum Cross 14/1
3 – Measureofmydreams 5/1
Day 3 bets:
1:30 – Defi De Seuill 10/3 & Real Steel E/W 13/2
2:10 – Sire Du Berlais 6/1 E/W & First Assignment 12/1 E/W
2:50 – Monalee 14/1 E/W (antepost) & 9/2
3:30 – Paisley Park 15/8 & Faugheen 9/2 E/W
4:10 – Janika 9/2 E/W & Kalondra 14/1 E/W
4:50 – Epatante (NAP) 5/1 (antepost) & 5/2
5:30 – It’s All Guesswork 10/1 E/W & Kilfilum Cross 16/1 E/W
Comment