Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[Middle_Of_March]

Excuse my ignorance but is that an american football handicap market?

Indeed it is

[Arkle]

I am determined to get Chacun Pour Soi on side for the QMCC before decisions are made re Altior, so I have done a few acca's with things happening today:

Dark Lady (too big a price and accounted for hot fav Summer Romance at Ascot)
Chacun Pour Soi
1pt @ 67/1. 1pt win.

Japan (v Paraguay, one of the laziest international teams you will see)
South Korea (v Georgia are rubbish )
Chacun Pour Soi
1pt @ 25/1

Followed you in with dark lady £300 return if Chacun wins now good shout

[charlie]

I am determined to get Chacun Pour Soi on side for the QMCC before decisions are made re Altior, so I have done a few acca's with things happening today:

Dark Lady (too big a price and accounted for hot fav Summer Romance at Ascot)
Chacun Pour Soi
1pt @ 67/1. 1pt win.

Japan (v Paraguay, one of the laziest international teams you will see)
South Korea (v Georgia are rubbish )
Chacun Pour Soi
1pt @ 25/1

(Gerogia ffs though)

[Marty973]

Gordon Elliott on Tiger Roll ‘He will go back to Cheltenham (March) for the Cross Country race and then we'll go for the Randox Health Grand National.’

[charlie]

Packers +3.5, Browns -5.5 and Chacun Pour Soi (champ chase)

Knock on wood if you're with me!

On. First leg in. Browns oblige and its CPS @ 30/1.

The last thing I want to do is flood the Cheltenham 2020 Ante post thread with a load of bets that aren't Cheltenham, so i'll create my own ante post thread as others have and post there from now on, but the subject of combining bets you can place now with Cheltenham ante post selections is really interesting and not something I have looked at seriously before, so worth discussing on here. Seems a useful way of securing bigger prices, especially with the cashout option (which is obviously key).

Take CPS for example. Currently 7/1. In a treble with over 1.5 goals in the Germany and Austria games tonight you get 10/1. Latvia have conceded 5, 3, 2, 0, 3, 1, 3 in their last 7 games and G v N has resulted in 5, 4, 3, 0, 3, 3, 3 goals since 2000. I don't for one second profess to be a football expert but over 1.5 goals in each of those games looks a practical certainty (or at least it was until I typed this ). But it seems a decent way of getting shorter priced horses on side, at an earlier stage, at a bigger price, and available to cash out if need be.

I had a bit of a result with Dark Lady & CPS @ 67/1 yesterday so i'l be going again today. Bit more conservative this time. I want to get Paisley Park in at over 5/1. Belgium (1/250), Austria (1/16), Wales (1/4) & Paisley Park (7/2) pays out at just over 5/1.

[Istabraq]

Gordon Elliott on Tiger Roll ‘He will go back to Cheltenham (March) for the Cross Country race and then we'll go for the Randox Health Grand National.’

Exactly what we all knew, even though the owner did his best to put us all off...

[ryanh97]

Gordon Elliott on Tiger Roll ‘He will go back to Cheltenham (March) for the Cross Country race and then we'll go for the Randox Health Grand National.’

12/1 with Sky for both, a little skinny this far out for me.

Might be worth a couple of free bets though

[Native River]

12/1 with Sky for both, a little skinny this far out for me.

Might be worth a couple of free bets though

I'd agree, especially as you would imagine he will run the national off his current mark of 172 when weights are released, this must open the door to plenty of decent horses that otherwise would be a high weight but will be around the 11st mark this April

[Saxon Warrior]

I'd agree, especially as you would imagine he will run the national off his current mark of 172 when weights are released, this must open the door to plenty of decent horses that otherwise would be a high weight but will be around the 11st mark this April

It is mind bowing to think that a horse could win the Grand National off a rating of 172.

Tiger Roll’s two wins were from ratings of 150 and 159. It’s a massive stretch to 172 from there.

Tiger Roll was 8lb well in when he won last year off 159 (official rating 167 at the time, after romp at Cheltenham). It would be unbelievable to see the treble happen, but I hope he does.

[Quevega]

On. First leg in. Browns oblige and its CPS @ 30/1.

The last thing I want to do is flood the Cheltenham 2020 Ante post thread with a load of bets that aren't Cheltenham, so i'll create my own ante post thread as others have and post there from now on, but the subject of combining bets you can place now with Cheltenham ante post selections is really interesting and not something I have looked at seriously before, so worth discussing on here. Seems a useful way of securing bigger prices, especially with the cashout option (which is obviously key).

Take CPS for example. Currently 7/1. In a treble with over 1.5 goals in the Germany and Austria games tonight you get 10/1. Latvia have conceded 5, 3, 2, 0, 3, 1, 3 in their last 7 games and G v N has resulted in 5, 4, 3, 0, 3, 3, 3 goals since 2000. I don't for one second profess to be a football expert but over 1.5 goals in each of those games looks a practical certainty (or at least it was until I typed this ). But it seems a decent way of getting shorter priced horses on side, at an earlier stage, at a bigger price, and available to cash out if need be.

I had a bit of a result with Dark Lady & CPS @ 67/1 yesterday so i'l be going again today. Bit more conservative this time. I want to get Paisley Park in at over 5/1. Belgium (1/250), Austria (1/16), Wales (1/4) & Paisley Park (7/2) pays out at just over 5/1.

I 'kind of' see the appeal of these type of bets charlie,

But is it not like finding a complicated and higher risk way of simply putting money on a horse you think isn't value enough for a normal bet ?.

Although the initial outlay may be smaller, you're still effectively staking the amount you win off the first bet (if it wins).

At the price of the second leg of the bet.
I.E with Paisley Park you're still betting at 7-2. Just with the returns of the first bet.

In some cases it effectively means you end up with more money than you'd want rolling onto something of poor value.

If the first bets of these doubles are such certainties it would make more sense to put more money on these, surely.

There's just something about these bets that seem not right to me.
Even though I occasionally do them myself (mainly not antepost though)'

Just thoughts, not trying to wind anyone up.

[archie]

That's been my initial thought as well. I'd be inclined to do a single on the first leg and then retain the original stake and put just the winnings on the second leg. That way you're going to be at least level and with a 'free' bet on the long term leg.

[Quevega]

Yep
I appreciate it does depend on stake sizes , banks, affordability, cash flows etc.
I can see in some circumstances why these bets may appeal but it’s probably not advisable I think.
From an idealistic view that is.

[charlie]

I 'kind of' see the appeal of these type of bets charlie,

But is it not like finding a complicated and higher risk way of simply putting money on a horse you think isn't value enough for a normal bet ?.

Although the initial outlay may be smaller, you're still effectively staking the amount you win off the first bet (if it wins).

At the price of the second leg of the bet.
I.E with Paisley Park you're still betting at 7-2. Just with the returns of the first bet.

In some cases it effectively means you end up with more money than you'd want rolling onto something of poor value.

If the first bets of these doubles are such certainties it would make more sense to put more money on these, surely.

There's just something about these bets that seem not right to me.
Even though I occasionally do them myself (mainly not antepost though)'

Just thoughts, not trying to wind anyone up.

Appreciate your feedback and thoughts. These type of bets are a completely new ball game to me so interesting to see what people think (there are quite a few of them popping up in the AP diary thread)

I think the value angle is extra complicated with these types of bets because you are not just assessing the current value of a horse, but the legs of the bet you are using to get a cumulatively bigger price. Those opinions will vary wildly, as will the sports and horses etc. To make it additionally complicated, peoples perception of what constitutes as value is also very different.

Re the point above, I wouldn't say it is generally putting money on a horse you think isn't value enough. For me it is far more weighted towards horses being generally a lot shorter in the ante post market than they were in previous years, so by using accumulated odds where you believe you have found decent value, you can increase the returns on a horse that the market currently isn't offering.

You are spot on though, this risk (providing the first legs win) is that you end up with more money than you'd want rolling onto something that turns out to be poor value, but that comes down to the individual and horse in question. We don't know that CPS is going to be a weapon, despite the strong vibes so that could easily be the case there. I would expect Paisley Park to go off shorter than 7/2 so if I can get 5/1 when I spot some value in other markets then why not, especially when B365 let you cash out!

[Saxon Warrior]

My doubles from current racing into antepost racing, are usually small stakes and seeking to pull together opportunities I think will win now, with those I think could win in the future.

I wouldn’t place the double if I thought that either part was poor value.

My own bets of this type would tend to be placed alongside the single win bet I would have on a current flat selection.

For example:
£30 Win Elysian Flame 8/1 (opening show for a race on a Saturday)

£5 Win Double Elysian Flame 8/1 with Chacun Pour Soi 7/1 (Champion Chase) = 71/1 Double.

If I fancy something for the weekend flat racing I try and place my bet as soon as the 48-hour decs are confirmed and the first prices go up. Often this gives me a bit of price value.

Rather than solely place the single win bet on a horse I really fancy, I think it makes sense to have the extra fiver combining my current weekend study and selection with a horse I fancy for the 2020 classics or Cheltenham.

Each to their own, for me this has helped build up a few positions on antepost markets.

Needless to say B365 for cashout antepost options is a given, unless they have extremely low odds.

[Morley Street]

My doubles from current racing into antepost racing, are usually small stakes and seeking to pull together opportunities I think will win now, with those I think could win in the future.

I wouldn’t place the double if I thought that either part was poor value.

My own bets of this type would tend to be placed alongside the single win bet I would have on a current flat selection.

For example:
£30 Win Elysian Flame 8/1 (opening show for a race on a Saturday)

£5 Win Double Elysian Flame 8/1 with Chacun Pour Soi 7/1 (Champion Chase) = 71/1 Double.

If I fancy something for the weekend flat racing I try and place my bet as soon as the 48-hour decs are confirmed and the first prices go up. Often this gives me a bit of price value.

Rather than solely place the single win bet on a horse I really fancy, I think it makes sense to have the extra fiver combining my current weekend study and selection with a horse I fancy for the 2020 classics or Cheltenham.

Each to their own, for me this has helped build up a few positions on antepost markets.

Needless to say B365 for cashout antepost options is a given, unless they have extremely low odds.

I often do the same HF and for the shorter price punts that Charlie describes above, I will often place a bet on the shorter price ‘certainty’ combination to win enough to cover the stake of the rolling on festival multiple. That way if the short prices win, you effectively get a ‘free’ festival bet. I think the ‘value’ argument of these type of bets has been overplayed in the past. It is a judgement call whether any price now can be perceived as value next March. I’m sure we would all only place an Ante-post now if we genuinely thought the price was going to be significantly shorter in March. For the Klassical Dreams and Paisley Parks we would be looking at an even money / odds on SP but whilst that would represent value to some it probably wouldn’t to all.