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Originally posted by sprintersacren
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I wouldn't get jiggy about 12/1 now though...
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I really like him for it, in principle.
I wouldn't get jiggy about 12/1 now though... -
Pretty pleased with the current state of my book. Playing only multiples worked very well for me last year, particularly when perming races which I shall look to do to a degree until Christmas and then a lot more post Christmas. Obviously I am screwed at the moment if Paisley Park doesn't win but will start adding more for the Stayers later in the year and perm with other selections already made. I know a lot don't like this approach but I am looking to make significant amounts, not 10 - 30% ROI. However, I think at this stage Paisley Park and Tiger Roll have the strongest chance of winning at the festival of any horse in training so very happy with the below.
Watched back a fair bit of the festival today and starting to get very sweet on Minella Indo for the RSA and Klassical Dream for the Champion. Had forgotten how hard Minella Indo pulled through the Albert Bartlett and his strength up the straight at Punchestown to beat Allaho.
450pts Paisley Park (5) Topofthegame (14)
510pts Paisley Park (5) Santini (16)
450 pts Paisley Park (5) Envoi Allen (14)
510pts Paisley Park (4) Delta Work (33)
112 pts Paisley Park (4) Altior (14)
510pts Paisley Park (4) Samcro (33)
150 pts Paisley Park (4) Presenting Percy (14)
250pts Paisley Park (4) Lostintranslation (33)
150pts Paisley Park (7/2) Princess Vega (33)
22pts Klassical Dream Envoi Allen
750pts Paisley Park (7/2) Envoi Allen (14) Topofthegame (10)
900pts Paisley Park (7/2) Envoi Allen (14) Santini (16)
240pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (5/2) Presenting Percy (16)
60pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (5/2) Presenting Percy (16)
280pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (5/2) Al Boum Photo (7)
160pts Paisley Park Altior Klassical Dream
60pts Paisley Park Altior Klassical Dream
750pts Paisley Park (7/2) Envoi Allen (12) Min (12)
400pts Paisley Park (3) Envoi Allen (10) Defi Du Seuil (8)
60pts Paisley Park (5/2) Tiger Roll (13/8) Benie Des Dieux (6)
240pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Altior (3)
530pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Altior (3)
225pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Draconien (40)
340pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Minella Indo (12) Princess Vega (5/4 - Won but BOG of 2 so payout will be significantly bigger)
565pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Next Destination (20) Dlauro (2 - Won)
115pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Kemboy (6)
250pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (2) Klassical Dream (5) Victory Day (15/8 - Won)
50000pts Paisley Park (5) Malone Road (20) Envoi Allen (14) Topofthegame (14)
25000pts Paisley Park (4) Envoi Allen (16) Malone Road (16) Topofthegame (14)
140pts Paisley Park (3) Tiger Roll (7/4) Klassical Dream (5) Envoi Allen (10)
Points obviously relate to return not stake!Comment
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Ran to 169RPR on soft ground and came third only beaten 3 lengths last year, he needs good ground to be seen at his best, I thought 20/1 looked a rock solid ew bet especially with superstar 2 miler potentially being stepped up, he will be 8 come March so could be about to peak.
But hearing Kingy talk Im pretty concerned that they might step him up, if they kept him at 2 miles and it was decent ground though, I think it would be an excellent selection at that price, nothing not to like?Comment
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Originally posted by Kautostar View Post
Ran to 169RPR on soft ground and came third only beaten 3 lengths last year, he needs good ground to be seen at his best, I thought 20/1 looked a rock solid ew bet especially with superstar 2 miler potentially being stepped up, he will be 8 come March so could be about to peak.
But hearing Kingy talk Im pretty concerned that they might step him up, if they kept him at 2 miles and it was decent ground though, I think it would be an excellent selection at that price, nothing not to like?Comment
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In the Racing Post today Gigginstown state that both Defi Bleu and Commander of a Fleet are out for the season.Comment
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I think horses of the quality of Sceau Royal, with an RPR of 169, a Cheltenham course winner and close-up placed at the last Festival behind an older more experienced horse are more than capable of winning at the Cheltenham Festival.Originally posted by billymag View Post
We often think that horses have to be as good as the best previous performers to be considered (ante post) to be able to win. But that is not always true. The record books of the Champion Chase, Champion Hurdle, Gold Cup, Ryanair Chase etc are littered with a mixture of exceptional champions, high-class winners, average winners and below average winners. Just like the 2000 Guineas, Derby etc.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Sceau Royal at larger odds on a win or each-way bet in the Champion Chase.
Thank goodness for differences of opinion that make each betting market.
The Champion Chase could have some real depth to it this year if the novices quoted high up in the CC market step forward in their second year, and then target this race. If they don’t prove as good as we may think then 5/1 Altior and 20/1 Sceau Royal may look massive if they line up again in a small field race.Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 11 August 2019, 09:10 AM."Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".Comment
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Like your plans Vautour, particularly using Paisley Park to boost prices on horses like Top of the Game, Delta Work, Envoi Allen, Lostintranslation etc, using small stakes.Originally posted by Vautour View Post
I use this technique regularly, but instead of an ante post boost on a horse such as Paisley Park, I choose a horse running this weekend, together with antepost bets. Yesterday I got a win at 11/2 on Sapa Inca in the Shergar Cup. But I also backed him to smaller stakes with antepost bets on Logician (St Leger at 10/1) and Shantou Flyer (Foxhunters @ 14/1).
The Sapa Inca Win has now converted the doubles with Logician and Shantou Flyer into higher stakes win single bets on Logician and Shantou Flyer, and also a double bet on them.
I found this route gave me something to bet on weekends, some lose of course but it’s only small stakes, but for those that win I have have larger singles and doubles rolling on to my Cheltenham, St Leger bets."Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".Comment
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I do the same Hamptonfox, though got burned last week on Band of Outlaws. My best return last year was from Apples Jade/Le Richebourg and Min from the Dublin Racing Festival rolling on to Al Dancer in the Betfair and Altior/Tiger Roll at Cheltenham (Betfair moving cost me 350 additional points!). Really like adding a few short priced favs during national hunt season as for me they tend to win more regularly and easily than flat horses. You can be in a vety good position come Cheltenham with little outlay.Originally posted by Hamptonfox View PostComment
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I bet you're an optimist Vautour ?Originally posted by Vautour View Post
Love the pts return calculation being paramount.Comment
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How many pts have you staked so far for the above in total?Originally posted by Vautour View Post
I'm always interested in how people approach the 'life changing' bets as a strategy.Comment
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Vautour do you not do any singles at all?
I like a good double or Yankee etc for Cheltenham but wouldn’t base my entire festival on them.
I’ve had enough non runners over the years to know not to put all my eggs in one basket so although I agree paisley park is banker material at this stage, what happens if he gets injured?Comment
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I do this as well. Usually pick a couple of ante post horses and combine them with my weekend horses or football bets. Already got some nice bets running on to Klassical Dream in the Champion HurdleOriginally posted by Hamptonfox View PostComment
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Also report's that Apples Jade and Samcro have had breathing op's.Originally posted by Cheltenham Novice Chase View PostComment
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