Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[Hurricane fly]

Well it’s never too early to rip up some slips

[Saxon Warrior]

Always the chance of City Island returning to hurdles for the Stayers if chasing doesn’t work out. There’s a number that have taken the step back into hurdles successfully in recent years.

[Kevloaf]

Well it’s never too early to rip up some slips

- Annoying one though, as I'm sure the quotes just after the race were about hurdles weren't they?

Always the chance of City Island returning to hurdles for the Stayers if chasing doesn’t work out. There’s a number that have taken the step back into hurdles successfully in recent years.

Usually an angle thats over-egged in the market though

[cpfcpatriot]

I’m mainly focusing on doubles after going for yankees last year.

As said elsewhere, I’m not a big stakes punter so don’t really bother with singles.

[Hurricane fly]

- Annoying one though, as I'm sure the quotes just after the race were about hurdles weren't they?

After Cheltenham it was, but I suppose the Punchestown flop changed their minds

[Kevloaf]

After Cheltenham it was, but I suppose the Punchestown flop changed their minds

How do you feel about him novice chasing? Still one you want onside?

[Hurricane fly]

The potential novice chase condundrum for the JLT/RSA is an absolute minefield so I’m not rushing to get involved with any horse in particular.

I think Minella Indo proved to be the stand out 3m novice hurdler last year but the 2m4 was a lot murkier and then you have the Mullins horses that missed the festival but still claimed a win, across the two you could conceivably have to choose between:

City Island
Champ
Brewinupastorm
Dickie Diver
Birchdale
Tornado Flyer
Carefully Selected(possible 4miler)
Reserve Tank
Commander of Fleet
Allaho

Plus non novice hurdlers such as Samcro, Melon and Laurina could all want the JLT distance.

So 10/1 any race for City Island a horse I wasn’t too sure on does not appeal for the time being

[ComplyOrDie]

You're not wrong HF.

I've mostly stuck to the any race market for a lot of the potential chasers for this reason, but as you note about City Island, some prices are just not that appealing, so have left some alone also.

[somer1]

Anyone thought of getting a price on Stand Up And Fight for the Foxhunters after the plunge last year and remembering that better was expected next year?

[Quevega]

Anyone thought of getting a price on Stand Up And Fight for the Foxhunters after the plunge last year and remembering that better was expected next year?

reckon you won't get value on a horse with connections like this, even after three pretty average runs once upped in class last season.
should be 20-1 and bigger.
It's form, even as a hurdler is beginning to look like he's a bit of an iffy character.

[The King Pimm]

I took 17.5/1 with a boost with WH on Stand Up & Fight based on the hyped favourite bombing stat at the festival. He’s not impressed me in any of his races last spring but it’s a punt he will improve next season given his age

[SeanRock]

Had a decent e/w pop on Carefully Selected for the NHC with Unibet at 33/1. Can see myself tipping away at that whilst it lasts similarly to the 28/1 Ladbrokes priced up on Topofthegame this time last year. The target race is the only question mark I have but my gut says NHC & Willie will probably have something sexier for the RSA. Hopefully Patrick earmarks the 4 miler early doors as he did with Ballyward & please god has better fortune in 2020.

[jono]

Good to see the chat continuing through the Summer everyone.
Have spent the last few days getting my head back into the game and watching back some of last years form.
Have just a few bets so far which were placed between March and now, consisting of:

3pts - Minella Indo - RSA - 27/1 (double) and 29/1 (double)
1pt - Gypsy Island - Mares Novice - 40/1 (double)
1pt - Princess Vega - Mares Novice 33/1 EW
1pt - Delta Work - Gold Cup - 48/1 (double)
1pt - Chacun Pour Soi - Any Race - 22/1

1pt - Klassical Dream (any) & Altior (qm) & Paisley Park (stayers) - 100/1
1pt - Malone Road (any) & Envoi Allen (any) - 66/1
1pt - Laurina (mares) & Benie des Dieux (stayers) - 48/1
0.5pt - Santini - Ladbroke & Gold Cup - 80/1
0.5pt - Topofthegame - Ladbroke & Gold Cup - 66/1

Hard to see me getting involved in anything shorter than 20/1 right now but some horses that have taken my eye and been added to the above are:

1pt - Al Dancer - Arkle - 33/1 EW

Well beat when joint fav for the Supreme (which the more I look back the more I think KD won that as good as anything in recent years) finishing a distant 10th. And his string 4 wins prior could well be looked down upon with the hightlight - the Betfair Hurdle being a weak renewal where most of the Supreme field would have won off 141. He travelled well through the Supreme and was right up there until 2 out. Nothing came out after the race although connections suggested it may just have come about too soon 3 weeks after Ascot. There's also definitely a reluctance with NTD horses where he can sometimes over race his horses through the Winter. So plenty of negatives to start! Why back him? Watching back on his races, imo I think he'll absolutely relish the Arkle test. He's got plenty of speed and importantly is very quick and slick over a hurdle which should hopefully bode well if he can translate that over a fence which is absolutely what you want in an Arkle horse. Even the Supreme run had him travelling through the race very strongly and jumping well. If he had held onto a place or even finished in the top 5 or 6 he for me would have a much stronger reputation going into the new season and i'm prepared to forgive him that one run. Confirmed to be novice chasing, a look through the early Arkle market has me scratching most of the market out and he (surprisingly having not backed him last season) stands out a fair bit.
Couple of quotes:

In terms of raw ability, he's superb," eulogised the winning trainer, who is most looking forward to the winner going over fences. "Look at the scope of him – he's such a good jumper and you'd imagine he'd find fences even easier."
"He's all speed," said Twiston-Davies jnr. "He was keen but still got the job done

1pt - Draconien - Arkle - 33/1 EW (cashout)

Plenty of cases already made on this one both last season and again this Summer. Impossible not to back after the comments Mullins made last season prior to the setback and though it's still an unknown on his wellbeing, taking the 33's, rather than the 40/1 with SkyBet gives the fallback of the cashout.

1pt - Carefully Selected - NHC - 33/1

Another who needs little reasoning. Concur with everything already said. That Punchestown run screamed the 4 miler with Patrick onboard.

1pt - Battleoverdoyen - RSA - 44/1 with boost

Of all the horses I saw up close in March, this fella stood out by a mile for the following year over fences. And like Al Dancer - he's another horse who i'm willing to look past his Cheltenham run. Where as AD ran well for much of his race, BOD was all over the show from the offset and just never travelled at all. Elliott confirmed as much in the days after:

Elliott added: "He never handled the track, and after two hurdles you could see him changing his legs.
"We scoped him after the race, and he was as clean as a whistle.
"He just didn't handle the track and was never happy. Jack was right to pull him up

Which is an obvious worry when you are looking to back him again. But another year on over the discipline he's surely built for and a longer trip (hopefully), for what was an inexperienced horse - i'll take the chance. Gigginstown have a stack of potential horses for the novice chases once again this year and the vast majority will be backed in the any race market again but at nearly 20pts bigger, I think this could be a wild price and is just too big to not take. I fully expect him to be nowhere near that price after just his first run out. Connections have clearly been taking a soft approach with him having taken him out of both Leopardstown and Punchestown. Think that approach may see the benefits this coming season.

1pt - Thomas Darby - JLT - 40/1 EW (cashout)

Despite running 2nd in the Supreme, and being confirmed to start off in 2 mile beginners chase this Autumn by Olly Murphy - watching back over all his runs last year, I really think he'll be seen at best effect over longer and think the 2 mile trip may well be too sharp for him. The fact that the 40's has the benefit of cashout is enough to tempt me in. A bet that I may well be cashing out but at worst i'd expect the price to at least be shorter and if i'm right in thinking he'll be at his best over further - we may well have a runner. Murphy had no reservation in running 2 against eachother in the Supreme BUT i do get the feeling Brewinupastorm and TD are his 2 very best in the yard so things may well be slightly different with them. When asked for an update last month : https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/statu...40301189439488

We'll start him (Thomas Darby) off at 2 miles over fences...We're going to drop him back(Brewinupastorm) to 2 miles. Hasn't quite been saying out his races as well as i'd liked...A drop in back in trip and over fences

If Brewin does excel over 2 miles than it wouldn't surprise me to see the 2 flip flop this year in terms of distance.

1pt - Early Doors - Stayers - 50/1 EW (cashout)

So Paisley Park right now is for me the most worthy and solid of all the favourites. I'm very sweet on him backing up next year so if i'm going to get involved, it needs to be at a big price.
And with that in mind...

50/1 for a festival 1st and 3rd to his name? In a handicap that has proven to produce top graded horses going forward and with cashout - a no brainer? Like Gigginstown, JP looks to have stack of novice chasers to his hand. Now there's a chance he could follow suit with the likes of Champ, Birchdale, Dickie Diver, Champagne Platinum, Sire du Berlais, Glenloe etc but he doesn't strike me as being made for a fence and that view was backed up when listening back to the FFP with Kevin Blake who obviously has links with the yard and horse: (to paraphrase when asked about his future and possibly chasing)

Needs to come up if going to be a graded hurdler. Could end up going chasing next season? Wouldn't be a shock. Will he improve for a fence? Not guaranteed to do so. Physically you wouldn't say he has a stamp of a chaser. Wouldn't be a surprise but give him and go and see. Don't know.

If he does stay over hurdles then that gives 2 options - but both surely revolve around him running in the Irish 'trials' for this race - as he did this season, he has no choice but to be running in graded company. And through a line through Bapaume who he finished 1.75L behind and 3.25L in front in his 2 races prior to the festival. Bapaume finished 4th in the Stayers off 155 (despite not staying) - he wouldn't be far away on the Irish challenge even if he doesn't find anymore improvement.

1pt - Emitom - Stayers - 33/1 EW

I saw he got a mention earlier on in the thread and i'd actually follow that up. Firstly he HAS to brush up on his jumping but hopefully another summer and more experience can iron out those issues but I think he's actually got a pretty nice profile for the race. He beat Lisnagar Oscar in his maiden hurdle. His follow up run was pretty lacklustre at 1/8 odds but I hope in hindsight it'll prove it was way too short over 2 miles for him. For all Interconnected was massively overated in terms of cost that beating giving 10lbs may just look slightly stronger when we see more of the runner up. So 3 wins, 5 including bumpers looks good. But I was always dubious until he proved it in grade 1 company. Onto Aintree and for me there's no doubt he proved it. Once again he had the beating of Lisnagar Oscar for the second time that season and that is no bad thing. LO finished 5th the the Albert Bartlett. The Irish trio of Minella Indo, Commander of Fleet, Allaho all go chasing, as most probably does the Henderson trained Dickie Diver who LO is closely tied too (the pair were 1-1 in a match). I think it's fair to say that LO proved himself up there if not the very best of the British staying novice hurdlers last season. And he backed that run up with a similar RPR and OR at Aintree which suggest on a literal form line, Emitom despite not running at Cheltenham would have been in around the places. I don't think there was any fluck in his Aintree run and he should only improve another year on other 3miles going forward. Though not a trainer where a glowing report might make you jump onto oddschecker, it's clear he has the horse right up there as one of his best ever at this stage and has come out and said he's likely to go for this race:

I don't think he'll be experienced enough to do that next season (chasing) and I imagine in the autumn we'll start out with a view to developing him into a Stayer's Hurdle horse...He's just got so much natural ability and on that alone I think he has the potential to be one of the best horses i've trained...He is a very good horse, seriosuly good...he is a bit special

Greatrex of course had Cole Harden win the Stayers in 2015 plus two 4th place finishes in the race so has a decent grasp of what it takes to succeed in the race. I'd expect him to start the season off at Wetherby in the West Yorkshire Hurdle (won by Cole Harden in 2014) at the start of November. This should give him a good sighter in open company before taking on the likes of Paisley Park at Newbury at the end of November.

[SeanRock]

Glad we’re on the same page re: Carefully Selected Jono, there is realistically no chance of a dry/mild coming winter in Ireland which imo hampered his prep big time this year. Plenty of rain thus far anyway...

Hadn’t really considered Thomas Darby over 2m 5f but you have me second guessing my initial thoughts. The weakness in the novice 2m hurdle division last season made my initial thoughts up for me.

[Kevloaf]

Oh yes Jono. Oh yes. That has got me RIGHT back in the mood... was looking at the racing tomorrow and it's much more boring than reading that post.


I agree with Battleoverdoyen ... the price is big enough to compensate the glaring 'track issue'.

I'm not as keen on Emitom as a win prospect but the points you made are solid. Certainly like Early Doors for the same race though at the bigger price. Should hear "first" from Kevin Blake on FFP too if he is going chasing to be able to cash out?


I hadn't seen the Brewin'upstorm comments, he might be worth a second look for the Arkle at 33/1? Like Thomas Darby over further too, been keen oin him for a while and have got some free bets on him in the Arkle already but he's on the shortlist.