Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[Faugheen_Machine]

Why can’t Delta Work improve past both? He’s a year younger, and look how the likes of Al Boum Photo improves this season after being a year younger in his novice chase season.

He can but I don't think he will. Santini is sure to relish the extra 2F and I can't see how Delta Work can beat him over that trip. That's without considering TOTG.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Who he expecting to line up against?

I doubt he'll be beating or meeting any of the Irish horses?


If he wins well at Aintree against the same horses we already know he's better than (bar Verdana Blue) haha ...

I really like Buveur D'air but I don't understand why there is a rush to back him at the price he is

I can't see that he'll meet much. Would Apples Jade turn up? Supasundae, Top Notch, If The Cap Fits other possibilities?

They might not be horses he hasn't beaten before but an impressive performance will mean they'll chop his price by a few points

[Istabraq]

From my perspective and with the greatest respect, given that we're still less than a week on from the first race of this year's Festival, it's utterly bonkers that we're already on Page 18.
I said it last year but it bears repeating. For any horse you need to calculate a treble of:
1. the odds of it being fit next March. Rule of thumb at this stage, say, even money.
2. the odds of it going for a particular target. A movable and subjective feast but I wouldn't look at anything below even money this far out.
3. the likely odds on the day - finger in the air job but worth doing.
eg. Cyrname.
1. evens
2. Gold Cup - 3/1?
3. 4/1 minimum and likely higher.

Your treble on the smallest odds is 39/1.

The methodology is very sound there archie, but is this referenced to Santini ?
If so:

Evens - agreed
3/1 unlikely, if he makes Cheltenham he can only be going to the Gold Cup, there isn't another suitable race at the festival, so I'd say he's closer 1/2 to head there
4/1 on the day, very possibly.

So I get 12/1 lol

[Istabraq]

if we repeat the same exercise for Buveur D'Air I'll guess:
Evs
No offers
5/2 (I have a view the 2020 renewal will be weak but just my take.

So I get 5/1

[archie]

If Santini wins the Ladbrokes, the King George and the Cotswold, he still wouldn't start at 4/1.

[Istabraq]

If Santini wins the Ladbrokes, the King George and the Cotswold, he still wouldn't start at 4/1.

I was just using your estimate archie but I agree he could easily be bigger

[archie]

BDA will start a minimum 5/1. Even making a double of evens and 5/1 makes him 11/1.

[Don Cossack]

A horse that's never gone over 2m5f with serious questions to answer going left handed is not even remotely temping at 20/1 for me

At his open day PN was asked about Cyrname and the instant reply with no thought was "He'll be trained for the King George and the Gold Cup" so you'd have to think they think he's going to stay.

[Faugheen_Machine]

If Santini wins the Ladbrokes, the King George and the Cotswold, he still wouldn't start at 4/1.

He'll run in the Ladbrokes and the Cotswold or Denman.

If he won the King George it'd be beyond belief and he would definitely be shorter than 4/1 but that ain't happening.

[Faugheen_Machine]

BDA will start a minimum 5/1. Even making a double of evens and 5/1 makes him 11/1.

I think he'll be top price 5/1 in 16 days time.

[archie]

I think he'll be top price 5/1 in 16 days time.

I very much doubt it but even if he was, he'll be the same price until November. Why tie up your money for half a year?

[Faugheen_Machine]

I very much doubt it but even if he was, he'll be the same price until November. Why tie up your money for half a year?

Because I disagree on what price he'll be in the champion hurdle and see the 8/1 on offer as value.

[lethalsteps]

At his open day PN was asked about Cyrname and the instant reply with no thought was "He'll be trained for the King George and the Gold Cup" so you'd have to think they think he's going to stay.

Hence why I found it intriguing. Cyrname is 5/1 to win the King George. If he gets anywhere near winning that race his GC odds will surely be less than 10/1.

[archie]

Because I disagree on what price he'll be in the champion hurdle and see the 8/1 on offer as value.

Your money. Best of luck.

A 2/1 winning bet is better value than a 10/1 losing bet.

[Hurricane fly]

BDA price will move two if not three times between now and Christmas

1) how he does at Aintree or Sandown
2) When Klassical Dreams intentions are announced
3) If he wins his seasonal debut

Also a possible 4th if something negative happens to Espoir D’allen (fingers crossed this doesn’t come into it)