Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[Istabraq]

I think Hendo’s horses had a poor prep this year, not suggesting next years army will be better or worse but I’d assume his planning is better.

As for Champ, he has always looked a stamina horse to me so I would think they’ll aim towards RSA rather than JLT but I guess conditions may determine that, a March deluge and a slow ground JLT may work for him...

[Geordieboy83]

Strange question but have WH stopped allowing doubles involving ante-post horses? Trying to place Matt Kuchar at 30s for masters with Paisley Park for stayers but no option of double available. Can get on with most other firms.

[Geordieboy83]

Strange question but have WH stopped allowing doubles involving ante-post horses? Trying to place Matt Kuchar at 30s for masters with Paisley Park for stayers but no option of double available. Can get on with most other firms.

Ignore this post I have sorted it now. Just having one of those moments. He was 50s too not 30s as posted ����

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

The RSA 1-2-3 aren't looking as bomb proof as Gold Cup contenders now are they?

Topofthegame didn't bomb out badly enough to say you can completely right off his run so Lostintranslation becomes feasible.



I hadn't got LIT on the radar at all, thought he was hugely over rated but plenty of time for me to re-assess that opinion.

Not tonight though

Been thinking exactly the same. Had planned to hit the first 3 in the RSA and ABP in small stake accas and free bets throughout the summer, but the performance of Kemboy in particular and LIT means 4 is now 6. Ordinarily at this point I'd reassess my thinking but have landed the first 2 legs of a small stakes big odds treble going on to both Santini and TOTG for the GC so will look to chip away at the other 4 over the summer using the same strategy.

[JackieMoon33]

They couldn't win any of this year's novice hurdles with all those contenders.

That’s a slightly anti-Henderson comment in my opinion.

It’s naive not to think that some horses are going to improve more for fences than others. Just because a horse wins a novice hurdle at Cheltenham does not mean they will confirm that form the following season over fences.

[Kevloaf]

It's been mooted in the past too that Henderson isn't 'the' trainer for novice hurdlers. Plenty of his horses (the majority of his really good'uns) excel after a slower build up and novice hurdle season that other trainers may give them.




The point Archie makes may well link in to the prices though.... the Henderson novices are priced with the above taken into account, and in some cases they're now priced like they are festival winners?




I'm on the side where I'd avoid them for now. Absolutely no value whatsoever in the obvious novice chasers at the head of any of those markets.

[archie]

That’s a slightly anti-Henderson comment in my opinion.

It’s naive not to think that some horses are going to improve more for fences than others. Just because a horse wins a novice hurdle at Cheltenham does not mean they will confirm that form the following season over fences.

It's actually more a comment anti to those who spent the better part of the season calculating how Nicky was going to carve up the novice hurdles between Angels Breath, Mr Fisher, Champ, Birchdale, Dicky Diver etc etc.

Nicky is unfortunate that expectations are usually unfairly high. The same can be said of Mullins, Elliott and, this season, Nicholls.

All I'm saying is that this time last year, people were saying that Santini was a good thing for the RSA based on a fair run in the AB. Most people would accept that Champ's hurdle form is better than Santini's and he must be on the shortlist for next season. The rest have a lot to prove.

[Kevloaf]

Santini was 16/1 14/1 12/1 - and the target was CLEAR.

Champ is 10/1 already and the target isn't as clear.




I'll get myself in trouble again no doubt, but betting on Champ for the RSA now is a bad bet at 10/1 relative to vlaue on similar horses in years gone by, no matter what combination you have it in.

[archie]

Nothing is a good bet at 10/1 at this moment in time.

[Kevloaf]

Nothing is a good bet at 10/1 at this moment in time.

Will you give me 10/1 that Tiger Roll wins the Cross Country 2020? I'd chalk that up as a good bet.


I can't see me backing anything at less than 20/1 until September this year.

Everything less will probably fall into "too obvious so not missed" or "too many options"

[Kevloaf]

I could see myself getting close to backing Min actually in the Ryanair at 12/1 at some point during the long summer days...

and I'll have Paisley Park in a multiple at 7/2 at some point probably


and Kemboy at 10/1 just to put the jonah on for you archie

[archie]

There is a point in backing horses before Sandown or Punchestown but after that, keep your powder dry until your fancy has an entry.

It's particularly a rookie error to back a horse because the trainer says it's come in from the field looking magnificent (see Jessie re: Our Duke and Sizing John). If a horse has done that well out at grass it will take that much longer to get it to racing condition.

[jack1092]

It's actually more a comment anti to those who spent the better part of the season calculating how Nicky was going to carve up the novice hurdles between Angels Breath, Mr Fisher, Champ, Birchdale, Dicky Diver etc etc.

Nicky is unfortunate that expectations are usually unfairly high. The same can be said of Mullins, Elliott and, this season, Nicholls.

All I'm saying is that this time last year, people were saying that Santini was a good thing for the RSA based on a fair run in the AB. Most people would accept that Champ's hurdle form is better than Santini's and he must be on the shortlist for next season. The rest have a lot to prove.

Santini was vastly more inexperienced than Champ ever was.

7 runs to Santini's 3 (including a ptp).

[Hurricane fly]

Champ will be 8 next year

For reference so will Kemboy!

Would really question how much he will improve and also how many will improve past him?

[The King Pimm]

Not sure what thread to post this on but is anyone showing an interest in tomorrow’s card at Cheltenham?
I’m backing a few that failed to fire at this year’s festival and a few horses on the upgrade. I fancy Hendo having a decent day