Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[Kevloaf]

Usually I'd like to start with a long term fancy myself... however I haven't played in any of next years markets yet and time is ticking on...

We do have the 'Horses for Cheltenham 2020' thread (http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...heltenham-2020) which has some early shouts for anyone that wants to check them out.


Oddschecker have the following markets up for next season... (click the links below to see markets)

Arkle 2020

Champion Hurdle 2020

Champion Chase 2020

Gold Cup 2020




Good luck for 2020

[Hurricane fly]

Envoi Allen and Malone Road both to win any race 100/1 1U

Saldier - Champions hurdle - 33/1
Topofthegame - Gold Cup - 12/1

0.5U e/w

Rewatched the RSA and on any given day any of the top 3 could have won. Spoke with the owners son of TOTG and they were really confident an extra 2f would help him.

Champion Hurdle looks wide open, at this point I believe in backing horses that target is fairly certain, but Klassical Dream for the Champion Hurdle at 9/1 is very tempting.

[Kevloaf]

Klassical Dream at 9/1 would be a horrific bet.

Target not certain.

No idea if the Supreme will be any good (I think it is BUT two outsiders finished 2nd and 3rd)

Single figures this far out is 100% not worth it.


I'd be amazed if you couldn't get bigger at some point.

[Hurricane fly]

You’re only getting bigger if he loses, and he absolutely destroyed the Supreme.

I’m not rushing to put it on because there is no indication about him staying over hurdles but 9/1 for a Supreme winner isn’t terrible. Consider Summerville Boy was 12/1 in a market with 2 time Champion BDA, young improving Melon who just got out battled, Laurina and hype grandmaster Samcro in the market.

[Kevloaf]

You’re only getting bigger if he loses, and he absolutely destroyed the Supreme.

I’m not rushing to put it on because there is no indication about him staying over hurdles but 9/1 for a Supreme winner isn’t terrible. Consider Summerville Boy was 12/1 in a market with 2 time Champion BDA, young improving Melon who just got out battled, Laurina and hype grandmaster Samcro in the market.

He's 'destroyed' Itchy Feet and Thomas Darby, 25/1+ shots?

A massive chance he could go chasing?

Considering the actual Champion Hurdle winner is 7/1, if you think Klassical Dream is a decent bet now at 9/1 then good luck to you.

He's 6/1 with PP and BFSB for the Arkle and 8/1 with 365, which already is a better bet IMOand would easily cast enough doubt over his target that taking single figures is just mental.



I wouldn't be backing it now... I urge you not to! I am so convicned you'd regret it... and for the record, I was hounding anyone that fancied Summerville Boy at 16/1 (let alone 12/1) as an awful bet....

[Hurricane fly]

He's 'destroyed' Itchy Feet and Thomas Darby, 25/1+ shots?

Vautour beat 14/1,11/1 and 33/1
Douvan 9/1 and 25/1

Would you have fancied them?
It’s easy to downplay a field once the event has happened but Angels Breath and Al Dancer have been well thought off for quite a while.


Again I’m not backing him yet, but also remember there is talk of fences for Laurina and Melon. Is Willie going to leave Saldier as the only potential CH horse?

Using 365 as the guide 8/1 for the Arkle when only 2 are quoted as opposed to 9/1 for the CH, given the CH is ‘harder’ to win does that not say it’s a 50:50 choice rather than suggesting chasing is the one?



I digress but once again I will focus on the any race market, I’ve ended up with multiple horses in handicaps as a result which is much better than a dead ticket. Think the novice markets will be really interesting as we almost have 2 year worth of bumper horses in the fray.

[Kevloaf]

Vautour and Douvan had hugely different profiles to Klassical Dream, so obviously not. They went in as favs with big reputations (especially Douvan) .... KD was 33/1 and 25/1 for aaaages even after debut (as Kevin Blake and the FFP kept banging on about)....

Also, why would you use 365 as a guide, we KNOW the guide is PP/BFSB?

There is TALK of Klassical Dream going over fences too..... Ruby said out loud, on national TV he'd want him to go over fences - so instantly it's poor value at single figures to back him for a CH.


Yes, I agree, any race is better (obviously, I am banging on about that all season on here)...and he might be a decent price in that market... hopefully.

Although he is ground dependent (another negative for ante post).

I think the Supreme was strong, I think Klassical Dream IS a major player potentially, but 9/1 now is madness. Absolute madness.

Espoir D'allen at 7/1 is SO SO SO SO much better for the CH than Klassical Dream at 9/1 as well for starters!



It's your money, you can do what you like.... but I would be staggered if people thought KD is better in the CH at 9/1 than Espoir at 7/1

[Kevloaf]

...and just to add, I'm not saying at some point 9/1 wouldn't look a great bet.... I'm saying now, it's no where near good value with everything we know.

[CJW]

If you like KD or any horse that appears short, boost the odds with others horses.

For example I did ALTIOR & TIGER ROLL to boost SANTINI's 33/1 odds for the gold cup. Now I have a 122/1 slip for him..

Nice when it works first time!

[Kevloaf]

If you like KD or any horse that appears short, boost the odds with others horses.

For example I did ALTIOR & TIGER ROLL to boost SANTINI's 33/1 odds for the gold cup. Now I have a 122/1 slip for him..

Nice when it works first time!

A poor value horse, is poor value whether in a multiple or not though

[CJW]

A poor value horse, is poor value whether in a multiple or not though

I'll disagree. If I like something and think it wins, I'll back it. If too short, I'll try and boost the odds, making it a better value bet.

Just my opinion.

[Kevloaf]

I'll disagree. If I like something and think it wins, I'll back it. If too short, I'll try and boost the odds, making it a better value bet.

Just my opinion.

It doesn't change the value.

Putting two poor value horses in a double, doesn't make it good value - it just means you're getting a bigger return if you get it right.

The value stays the same.

[CJW]

It doesn't change the value.

Putting two poor value horses in a double, doesn't make it good value - it just means you're getting a bigger return if you get it right.

The value stays the same.

Fair enough.

I've got 122/1 instead of a 33/1 slip...

[BigChaang]

Santini - Gold cup - 20-1 . First of Many i expect.

[cpfcpatriot]

First one.

Double:
Malone Road - Supreme 20/1
Envoi Allen - Ballymore 11/1.

Cheveley Double! 230/1.