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I have done a little analysis on Paul Nicholls in February the last 4 years and how that has followed onto Cheltenham.
February Performance
2019 - 13 wins 41 runners 32% £320k +22.30 Ascot Ch, Kingwell Hdl, Denman Ch.
2018 - 19 wins 76 runners 25% £359k -10.00 Reynoldstown, Pendil, National Spirit.
2017 - 17 wins 75 runners 23% £297k -23.06 Rendlesham, Pendil.
2016 - 21 wins 66 runners 32% £366k +12.71 Contenders, Ascot Ch, Adonis.
2015 - 14 wins 60 runners 23% £299k -15.84 Kingmaker, Game Spirt, Pendil.
Cheltenham Wins
2018 - Foxhunters, Grand Annual.
2017 - Foxhunters.
2016 - Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, Grand Annual.
2015 - Coral Cup, QMCC, Fred Winter.
Interestingly Paul hasn't had a horse place in a G1 at the festival since Saphir Du Rheu & Zarkander finished 2nd & 3rd to Cole Harden in the stayers back in 2015. He also won the QMCC with Dodging Bullets that year and Southfield Theatre was a well held 2nd to Don Poli. When I realised this I was amazed, I looked at the details and what I found just seemed bizarre to me.
Runners in G1s at Cheltenham 2016 - 2018 (0-0-18)
RSA: Black Corton & Le Mercury
QMCC: Politilogue & Dodging Bullets
JLT: Modus, Politilogue & As De Mee.
Ryanair: Vibrato Valtat.
Stayers: Zarkander, Aux Ptit Soins & Saphir Du Rheu.
Triumph: Clan Des Obeaux, Tommy Silver, Frodon, Connetable & Zubayr (all the same year).
Gold Cup: Saphir Du Rheu x 2
Nicholls hasn't had a runner in Supreme, Ballymore or Bartlett in at least 3 years, along with the Champion Hurdle & Arkle. I think Paulno longer believes he can compete at Cheltenham, therefore, has shifted his focus to November, December & April. Similar to Gordon & Willie, Nicky tends to have his horses ready later, his record at the Open meeting shows this, however Nicholls is primed by early October and runs right through to Christmas where his horses get their jabs and a break in Jan. February Nicholls again tries to steal as much prize money as possible with trainers having one eye on Cheltenham. March is a quiet month for him compared to everyone else who are focused mainly on Cheltenham, this allows him to have horses fresh for the end of the season when ever penny counts towards the trainers championship.
Since Cheltenham 2015 Nicholl's top 10 months in terms of prize money:
December 2018 - £729k
April 2015 - £567k
April 2016 - £560k
April 2017 - £506k
November 2015 - £500k
November 2018 - £496k
December 2017 - £483k
December 2016 - £429k
April 2018 - £416k
November 2016 - £402k
All are either November, December or April.
Compare that to the Marches and Februaries since:
2018 March - £248k February £359k
2017 March - £228k February £297k
2016 March - £324k February £366k
However in terms of best strike rate where Nichols has had more than 30 runners in a month in the last 5 years his record looks like this:
40% - October 2016
32% - February 2019
32% - February 2016
31% - November 2014
29% - October 2018
29% - October 2017
I would argue October & February are times of lesser competition in the UK NH season and PN has taken advantage.
Paul has had great success this year again and looks to have a nice team to take to Cheltenham but passed performance might say hold off till April.
February Performance
2019 - 13 wins 41 runners 32% £320k +22.30 Ascot Ch, Kingwell Hdl, Denman Ch.
2018 - 19 wins 76 runners 25% £359k -10.00 Reynoldstown, Pendil, National Spirit.
2017 - 17 wins 75 runners 23% £297k -23.06 Rendlesham, Pendil.
2016 - 21 wins 66 runners 32% £366k +12.71 Contenders, Ascot Ch, Adonis.
2015 - 14 wins 60 runners 23% £299k -15.84 Kingmaker, Game Spirt, Pendil.
Cheltenham Wins
2018 - Foxhunters, Grand Annual.
2017 - Foxhunters.
2016 - Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, Grand Annual.
2015 - Coral Cup, QMCC, Fred Winter.
Interestingly Paul hasn't had a horse place in a G1 at the festival since Saphir Du Rheu & Zarkander finished 2nd & 3rd to Cole Harden in the stayers back in 2015. He also won the QMCC with Dodging Bullets that year and Southfield Theatre was a well held 2nd to Don Poli. When I realised this I was amazed, I looked at the details and what I found just seemed bizarre to me.
Runners in G1s at Cheltenham 2016 - 2018 (0-0-18)
RSA: Black Corton & Le Mercury
QMCC: Politilogue & Dodging Bullets
JLT: Modus, Politilogue & As De Mee.
Ryanair: Vibrato Valtat.
Stayers: Zarkander, Aux Ptit Soins & Saphir Du Rheu.
Triumph: Clan Des Obeaux, Tommy Silver, Frodon, Connetable & Zubayr (all the same year).
Gold Cup: Saphir Du Rheu x 2
Nicholls hasn't had a runner in Supreme, Ballymore or Bartlett in at least 3 years, along with the Champion Hurdle & Arkle. I think Paulno longer believes he can compete at Cheltenham, therefore, has shifted his focus to November, December & April. Similar to Gordon & Willie, Nicky tends to have his horses ready later, his record at the Open meeting shows this, however Nicholls is primed by early October and runs right through to Christmas where his horses get their jabs and a break in Jan. February Nicholls again tries to steal as much prize money as possible with trainers having one eye on Cheltenham. March is a quiet month for him compared to everyone else who are focused mainly on Cheltenham, this allows him to have horses fresh for the end of the season when ever penny counts towards the trainers championship.
Since Cheltenham 2015 Nicholl's top 10 months in terms of prize money:
December 2018 - £729k
April 2015 - £567k
April 2016 - £560k
April 2017 - £506k
November 2015 - £500k
November 2018 - £496k
December 2017 - £483k
December 2016 - £429k
April 2018 - £416k
November 2016 - £402k
All are either November, December or April.
Compare that to the Marches and Februaries since:
2018 March - £248k February £359k
2017 March - £228k February £297k
2016 March - £324k February £366k
However in terms of best strike rate where Nichols has had more than 30 runners in a month in the last 5 years his record looks like this:
40% - October 2016
32% - February 2019
32% - February 2016
31% - November 2014
29% - October 2018
29% - October 2017
I would argue October & February are times of lesser competition in the UK NH season and PN has taken advantage.
Paul has had great success this year again and looks to have a nice team to take to Cheltenham but passed performance might say hold off till April.
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