Who have you missed ?

[Garrison Savannah]

Wished I'd had more on pretty much everything current fav as a single but we could all say that couldn't we ? It just never works out that way. You have to be content with how you've built your book and not have any regrets. Two or three of the 'Bankers' will inevitably not win and that will present people with surprise wins on horses they may have put a line through. Happens every year and will continue to happen.

I think you’ve made two points there, one which I agree with and one I don’t. I agree wholeheartedly that more bankers won’t go in than will. Appreciate It, Shiskin, CPS, Easysland, Envoi Allen, Monkfish - all horses I’ve seen people make cases for that they’re bankers. I’d be astonished if more than half of them go in. As you say, it doesn’t happen, and didn’t happen again last year.

However, I’m not sure it’s good advice to be content with all bets you’ve placed. Surely we look to hone our skills, iron out mistakes, and improve? Some losing bets are good bets and some winning bets are bad. I don’t regret making mistakes, but I would if I didn’t at least try identifying them firstly, and then learning from them when I have.

[Istabraq]

Some losing bets are good bets and some winning bets are bad.

Spot on this, absolutely spot on...

[The King Pimm]

Still got nothing on CPS and Envoi in singles. I don’t think there’s really been a price on CPS that was worth taking and I missed the boat with Envoi 6 months ago. I’ve got them in lots of RAB’s and trebles but like Shiskin now they don’t add that much value to multiples and way too short to be lumping on. That said I really do hope Envoi wins as I hope to see him win everything. I don’t have much love for CPS so hoping he gets turned over.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Of these ‘bankers’, I get Shishkin and Envoi Allen, however, realistically how many of us an abundance of knowledge on the Cross Country? I would add, Appreciate It is far from bomb-proof and Monkfish, whilst not having done anything wrong over fences, only won by a neck at last year’s Festival.

[Lobos]

I think you’ve made two points there, one which I agree with and one I don’t. I agree wholeheartedly that more bankers won’t go in than will. Appreciate It, Shiskin, CPS, Easysland, Envoi Allen, Monkfish - all horses I’ve seen people make cases for that they’re bankers. I’d be astonished if more than half of them go in. As you say, it doesn’t happen, and didn’t happen again last year.

However, I’m not sure it’s good advice to be content with all bets you’ve placed. Surely we look to hone our skills, iron out mistakes, and improve? Some losing bets are good bets and some winning bets are bad. I don’t regret making mistakes, but I would if I didn’t at least try identifying them firstly, and then learning from them when I have.

Absolutely, you can learn and do things slightly different next year. I was referring to this year's book where, in most cases, the 'damage' has already been done.

[Ice]

Envoi for me as well, no singles on but at least got him in the double with shishkin and a treble with Shishkin and Epatante so still hopeful of a having him running for me on the Thursday.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I will admit I am not confident this year of my portfolio. At the prices, I wasn’t prepared to take a punt on Envoi Allen when we didn’t even know for which race he was being targeted. I don’t have Monkfish either as I thought the price was not right one year out. Same for Easyland. The race I am most frustrated about though is the Gold Cup. I have really wanted to add Minella Indo but I have found the price poor value. I think this year is particularly abnormal with more antepost money going down than normal because of a Covid boredom, resulting in bookies not extending prices when horses lose / fall because of their liabilities. I did go on Shishkin early doors because I thought he target was obvious but in general I feel there has been less value this year, particularly in the TWAR markets.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I will admit I am not confident this year of my portfolio. At the prices, I wasn’t prepared to take a punt on Envoi Allen when we didn’t even know for which race he was being targeted. I don’t have Monkfish either as I thought the price was not right one year out. Same for Easyland. The race I am most frustrated about though is the Gold Cup. I have really wanted to add Minella Indo but I have found the price poor value. I think this year is particularly abnormal with more antepost money going down than normal because of a Covid boredom, resulting in bookies not extending prices when horses lose / fall because of their liabilities. I did go on Shishkin early doors because I thought he target was obvious but in general I feel there has been less value this year, particularly in the TWAR markets.

I would say that's decent punting by you CNC. If you don't see the horse as value then you shouldn't be betting it. It might not look like its worked out for you yet but there's still 6+weeks to go and loads can change in that time.

I can't remember a year when so many ante post favourites in April were still market leaders the following Feb.

Epatante Monkfish
EA
Shishkin
ABP
Easysland
Honeysuckle
Min

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Thank you FM and I hope you’re right although I guess we’ll just have to wait and see! Of those you mention above, I would say only EA and Shishkin are legitmate ‘bankers’ in so far as any horse is a banker. Monkfish has been impressive but I think he’s beatable, Honeysuckle is great but we still don’t know in which race she will be declared. Epatante is clearly beatable as recently proven. Easyland doesn’t appear to have had the ideal preparation and Min is past what is usually recognised as being peak age. ABP looks as good as he did this time last year but only won by a length in the Gold Cup and one would like think something has to come from last year’s novice ranks to challenge him. Perhaps Champ, A Plus Tard or Minella Indo? I think there might be some ‘unusual’ results this year.

Anything you feel you’ve missed out on FM?

[Istabraq]

It’s easy to beat yourself up where we don’t get the fancy prices but for me, and I appreciate everyone looks at these things differently, I just want my horses to make it there fit/healthy.
I’ve had a very small choice of bookies for years so I’m used to losing the best of the value that the market offers, but if I get a 20/1 shot to the post that was a general 33/1 shot I’ll take that as a win....

[Faugheen_Machine]

Thank you FM and I hope you’re right although I guess we’ll just have to wait and see! Of those you mention above, I would say only EA and Shishkin are legitmate ‘bankers’ in so far as any horse is a banker. Monkfish has been impressive but I think he’s beatable, Honeysuckle is great but we still don’t know in which race she will be declared. Epatante is clearly beatable as recently proven. Easyland doesn’t appear to have had the ideal preparation and Min is past what is usually recognised as being peak age. ABP looks as good as he did this time last year but only won by a length in the Gold Cup and one would like think something has to come from last year’s novice ranks to challenge him. Perhaps Champ, A Plus Tard or Minella Indo? I think there might be some ‘unusual’ results this year.

Anything you feel you’ve missed out on FM?

Of the current shorties I've pretty much avoided Epatante and CPS.

I thought Goshen and Abacadabras would improve past Epatante (unlikely now) but I'll just let her win at current prices.

CPS is in a few multiples but I didn't want to chance him as a single at the prices, given his injury record. I still feel he's beatable, especially up the hill.

[EnvoyAllen]

The Shiskin / Envoi Allen double.

I haven’t missed it per se, as I do have the double twice. However, even added together I have just 1 point on, returning under 6.5pts...

I must win the Fat Jockey competition for least amount of points back should the Arkle and Marsh go the way that looks most likely....what a

Depends if 1 point for you is a three figure sum.......??

[Kevloaf]

Honeysuckle....at 2 miles.....

....and I hope I'm wrong.....

[Eggs]

...from a singles perspective, I have very little on CPS. Nothing at all on Tiger Roll.

[Ice]

Cps is one i haven't got and if he wins he wins, for me the price has always been too short for a horse who hasn't yet made a festival.