Who have you missed ?

[Lobos]

The one that I have a awful nagging feeling about is Honeysuckle.

She’d be a very very nice winner of the Mares for me.

I am also in a pretty nice position in terms of the front 3 in the betting for the champion hurdle.

However, if Honeysuckle were to run in the Champion Hurdle and win....well that wouldn’t be good for me. Not at all.

Have thought about it quite a bit, but decided to do nothing. I’m far from convinced she’ll run it, and I don’t think she’d win if she did....at least that’s what I’m telling myself anyway...

It's a difficult one isn't it. I was in the same boat but decided to bet her for the Churdle as cover for Epatante as I am now strongly of the opinion that she'll end up going that route and that at 16/1 she is too big to big to ignore as I see her as the biggest threat to the fav if there is to be one ! Probably a waste of money but if Epatante was to miss the race then Honeysuckle could end up fav. Intriguing stuff.

[Redbridge]

I can't see the value in backing an animal at 33s in the dark based on unknown potential or its connections, but why would you not be taking 8s when it's posted it's credentials on the board such is the case with Zanahryi, I see that Lydia Hislop thought it was still value at 5s.

Value to my way of thinking is knowledge which allows for better staking but taking the dartboard approach in backing animals at 33s or bigger causes to much wastage in staking in my experience, Zanahryi could be 10s or 6/4 tomorrow night but with hindsight it's no good looking back wishing you took the 4s that are currently available, fingers crossed it doesn't do an Aspire Tower tomorrow

[Lobos]

I can't see the value in backing an animal at 33s in the dark based on unknown potential or its connections, but why would you not be taking 8s when it's posted it's credentials on the board such is the case with Zanahryi, I see that Lydia Hislop thought it was still value at 5s.

Value to my way of thinking is knowledge which allows for better staking but taking the dartboard approach in backing animals at 33s or bigger causes to much wastage in staking in my experience, Zanahryi could be 10s or 6/4 tomorrow night but with hindsight it's no good looking back wishing you took the 4s that are currently available, fingers crossed it doesn't do an Aspire Tower tomorrow

Throwing several darts at 20/1+ shots has always been more profitable for me than 1 big dart at 8/1. Practice makes perfect.

[EnvoyAllen]

I can't see the value in backing an animal at 33s in the dark based on unknown potential or its connections, but why would you not be taking 8s when it's posted it's credentials on the board such is the case with Zanahryi, I see that Lydia Hislop thought it was still value at 5s.

Value to my way of thinking is knowledge which allows for better staking but taking the dartboard approach in backing animals at 33s or bigger causes to much wastage in staking in my experience, Zanahryi could be 10s or 6/4 tomorrow night but with hindsight it's no good looking back wishing you took the 4s that are currently available, fingers crossed it doesn't do an Aspire Tower tomorrow

It’s a really good point you make here Mr Redbridge.

Consider Zanahiyr. He’s a 4/1 very short (for the Triumph, this is short so far out) favourite and 1/2 tomorrow. Those odds are telling me he’s a very good horse and Andy Holding who does all the fine timings/splits on Oddschecker has stated no juvenile will run quicker than him this season. So though 4/1 seems short, there’s a 1/2 chance tomorrow he’ll be 5/2 in less than 24 hours regardless of who he beats.

But you’re right - he might end up being 10/1 come tomorrow evening. But surely I’d back him to be even shorter tomorrow, and hence the 4/1 would be excellent value as we currently sit.

It’s the same with Shishkin - he should win comfortably against his opponents on Sunday, and then you’ve got your 5/4 into evens the moment he crosses the finishing post - again, regardless of who he beats.

That would make the ‘paltry’ 5/4 price currently a great bet (for those supporting him for the Arkle) over the evens he’ll likely go. Lots of people will suggest there’s not a great deal between a 5/4 and evens money shot. There’s a great deal - 25%. And any bookmaker doesn’t want to give an extra penny they don’t have to, let alone a 25% potential bonus come March for winning at 2/7 less than 11 weeks previously.

Yes, they’re short in the market. But the next 48 hours could potentially be the last opportunity to get any kind of value on those two, as an example.

[Spectre]

There’s a difference though. We know the form of Shishkin’s rivals, whereas Zanahiyr could meet literally anything in March whatever the result tomorrow.

I want Zanahiyr on board but I’m prepared to let him go if I have to, and won’t race to back him because 4/1 might be 5/2 tomorrow night. At 5/2 or whatever I’ll throw him in multiples at the 5 day decs stage because he won’t be any shorter than he will be on the 27th.

[dannycraigpirates]

Lots of people will suggest there’s not a great deal between a 5/4 and evens money shot. There’s a great deal - 25%..

I believe it’s 12.5% difference but could stand corrected - either way your point still stands. I’d rather back now and get a better price knowing that the likelihood is he will be too short to include again.

[Outlaw]

I believe it’s 12.5% difference but could stand corrected - either way your point still stands. I’d rather back now and get a better price knowing that the likelihood is he will be too short to include again.

From a bookmakers point of view the implied chance is 50% evens, 44.44% 5/4 so 5.56% difference. From a payout perspective the difference is 25% ?1 @ evens ?1 profit,?1 at 5/4 ?1.25 profit. At least that's my understanding.

A 6/4 shot into evens has taken more money than a 33s shot into 10s but the literal point reductions on the latter gets more attention and makes most punters feel better than the former as the payout is usually more.

[dannycraigpirates]

From a bookmakers point of view the implied chance is 50% evens, 44.44% 5/4 so 5.56% difference. From a payout perspective the difference is 25% ?1 @ evens ?1 profit,?1 at 5/4 ?1.25 profit. At least that's my understanding.

A 6/4 shot into evens has taken more money than a 33s shot into 10s but the literal point reductions on the latter gets more attention and makes most punters feel better than the former as the payout is usually more.

I always thought it was the difference between 2.25 and 2.00 which would be 12.5% - who knows, certainly not me!

I’m in full agreement about the contraction of shorter priced horses not appearing to be as well backed if that makes sense. Some people only like to pick winners if it’s a big price -anti-short priced snobbery I call it

[Spectre]

Exactly that Outlaw. The latter point is also true.

[Outlaw]

I always thought it was the difference between 2.25 and 2.00 which would be 12.5% - who knows, certainly not me!

I think it's because your taking the decimal odds at face value and not what it actually is, 2.0 is really 1 and 2.25 is really 1.25. It's easier to see it from a fractions perspective 1 > 5/4 ( 4/4=1, 5/4= 1& 1/4)

it doesn't really matter just trying to explain it. Just back winners as a guy I know says

[EnvoyAllen]

I think it's because your taking the decimal odds at face value and not what it actually is, 2.0 is really 1 and 2.25 is really 1.25. It's easier to see it from a fractions perspective 1 > 5/4 ( 4/4=1, 5/4= 1& 1/4)

it doesn't really matter just trying to explain it. Just back winners as a guy I know says

All I know, regardless of decimal percentages is - if you back Shishkin today, you get 5/4.

If he wins tomorrow and go’s evens you get evens.

A pound at evens wins you a pound. A pound at 5/4 wins you one pound & twenty five pence.

Twenty five into 100 go’s 4 times and thus 25%.

Shishkin therefore will earn any backers 25% more financially if backed before tomorrow, than if he wins and go’s evens.

Maths for kids,unless I’ve overlooked something.

[Quevega]

[QUOTE=EnvoyAllen;n264645]

All I know, regardless of decimal percentages is - if you back Shishkin today, you get 5/4.

If he wins tomorrow and go’s evens you get evens.

A pound at evens wins you a pound. A pound at 5/4 wins you one pound & twenty five pence.

Twenty five into 100 go’s 4 times and thus 25%.

Shishkin therefore will earn any backers 25% more financially if backed before tomorrow, than if he wins and go’s evens.

Maths for kids,unless I’ve overlooked something.[/QUOTE]

Nope, definitely maths for kids

[Outlaw]

All I know, regardless of decimal percentages is - if you back Shishkin today, you get 5/4.

If he wins tomorrow and go’s evens you get evens.

A pound at evens wins you a pound. A pound at 5/4 wins you one pound & twenty five pence.

Twenty five into 100 go’s 4 times and thus 25%.

Shishkin therefore will earn any backers 25% more financially if backed before tomorrow, than if he wins and go’s evens.

Maths for kids,unless I’ve overlooked something.

You've literally just explained what i have, i wasn't debunking it... Was clearing it up for Danny not yourself. You do seem very condescending at times.

[archie]

Further maths for kids:
?1 at 5/4 returns exactly the same as ?1 at evens if he doesn't win.

[dannycraigpirates]

Luckily the only maths that matter is ROI & LSP - anything else is irrelevant