Cheltenham 2019 Festival Going & Weather

[doctorwu]

The most overused truism in racing.

Most horses go on any ground. Very few horses run to the same level on all goings.

Not if you're Waiting Patiently

[bobbyvalentino]

What's your concern with Le Richebourg ?
He's not a dressage horse.
Why do you think he'll not try or perform just because the ground is softer ?
He's clearly got some stamina with the drinmore performance and has improved from last year and for jumping fences possibly.
They mentioned ground as an excuse last year as he didn't perform as they expected.
I don't think for a minute the horse won't act or has an attitude when running on soft.

It's the same /similar school of thought that people had with apple's jade not being quick enough for 2 miles. based on previous runs when elliot didn't have her right.
He immediately excused her runs due to her being a stayer and needing further, and he was dead wrong.

Going on the ground is probably a confusing expression. I'm not questioning attitude at all.

He needs firm ground to be seen at his best, whereas others will perform better in softer ground

[Quevega]

Going on the ground is probably a confusing expression. I'm not questioning attitude at all.

He needs firm ground to be seen at his best, whereas others will perform better in softer ground

it's nonsense bobby, don't cash out.

[archie]

Apparently, no plans to water in the short term.

[robith]

I was super worried about the melting snow and the heavy ground ruining my bets last year, but to be honest the old horse I backed beaten by the ground was maybe Might Bite, and that was bloody close.

So I'd be of the same opinion as Kev, I'm looking for the profile of the likely winner and form. I'll make a call on any conditions that are outrageously favourable closer to the time imo

[Gem1304]

Personally, I've made a fair bit of money backing "heavy ground horses" when the ground comes up right for them in a period when they've been competing on good/gs ground previously. Although I understand the festival is a lot more competitive and everyone is trying, I think it's foolish to say there isn't a ground bias with some horses.

As they say, good horses go on any ground. But sometimes it pays to side with those who seem to relish it as opposed to those that haven't done so well on it in the past.

[Quevega]

when you say relish it
do you mean they have more strength and stamina.

[Gem1304]

when you say relish it
do you mean they have more strength and stamina.

Perhaps... I don't fully understand why some horses seem to enjoy different ground to others. Relish probably the wrong word here.

My point is I think there are definitely horses that run better on certain types of ground. And personally I use that when I'm looking for a winner in a race. So from my point of view I think it's an important factor to consider

[BigChaang]

Hope I don't jinx it , but for the next 14 day's at Cheltenham , there's 3 hrs of Light rain forecast ,
So i should think it will be a normal good to soft start to the festival.

[BigChaang]

BBC weather Forecast showing Light rain at cheltenham from 2nd march through to the 7th ,
Sound's like it will be Good to Soft for the first day or two at least.

[The King Pimm]

The long range forecast for Cheltenham for March last week in the Met Office website was wet & windy. How much and how bad no one knows but this dry spell will end soon

[archie]

The link to Metcheck at the start doesn't seem to work now so try this:

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/16days.asp?zipcode=Cheltenham+Racecourse&locationID=61326&lat=51.5&lon=-2

As it stands, 25mm of rain in the week before the Festival with 15mm of that on the Saturday.

[boopa]

The link to Metcheck at the start doesn't seem to work now so try this:

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/16days.asp?zipcode=Cheltenham+Racecourse&locationID=61326&lat=51.5&lon=-2

As it stands, 25mm of rain in the week before the Festival with 15mm of that on the Saturday.

Only 25% chance though.

[archie]

https://twitter.com/cheltenhamraces/status/1100722490987425792?s=21

[FaugheenTheMachine]

The going

Claisse: We put 2mm on Thursday. The forecast I have now is for between 35-40mm of rain between Saturday and a week on Monday. John Kettley is backing soft for Day 1”