Owner / Trainer Handicap Analysis - 2008 - 2018

[Hurricane fly]

I also read today how GE only ever runs one horse in each graded race

So while I also see them as nob handed because of Irish racing it’s clear when Giggi/Gordon come to Cheltenham none of their runners are there for the day out

[charlie]

I also read today how GE only ever runs one horse in each graded race

So while I also see them as nob handed because of Irish racing it’s clear when Giggi/Gordon come to Cheltenham none of their runners are there for the day out

Nob handed definitely the best FJF typo

[Hurricane fly]

Nob handed definitely the best FJF typo

[Kevloaf]

I also read today how GE only ever runs one horse in each graded race

So while I also see them as nob handed because of Irish racing it’s clear when Giggi/Gordon come to Cheltenham none of their runners are there for the day out

Really?!

I had never ever noticed that!

Can that be true?!

You got a link?

[Hurricane fly]

Slightly misread, could just be one for Giggi

[charlie]

Nicky Henderson Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

Ultima
13 / 0 / 1 / 2

Close Brothers
21 / 1 / 1 / 5
2013 - Rajdhani Express 16/1

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
0 / 0 / 0 / 0

Fred Winter
14 / 1 / 2 / 2
2012 – Une Artiste 40/1

Coral Cup
32 / 2 / 2 / 1
2014 – Whisper 14/1
2010 – Spirit River 14/1

Pertemps
15 / 1 / 0 / 0
2015 – Call The Cops 9/1

Brown Advisory
19 / 0 / 0 / 0

Kim Muir
13 / 0 / 0 / 2

Martin Pipe
25 / 1 / 1 / 3
2009 – Andytown 25/1

County Hurdle
17 / 0 / 1 / 1

Grand Annual
29 / 1 / 3 / 6
2012 – Bellvano 20/1

Summary

Total Handicap Runners: 198
Winners: 7 (3.5%)
Placed: 24 (12.4%)

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down - £530, and that’s keeping in mind 4 of his 7 winners won at 40/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1.

Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners

2018 – 0 – 19 - 524
2017 – 0 – 16 - 618
2016 – 0 – 14 - 414
2015 – 1 – 15 - 499
2014 – 1 – 22 - 514
2013 – 1 – 19 - 509
2012 – 2 – 23 - 627
2011 – 0 – 22 - 612
2010 – 1 – 20 - 511
2009 – 1 – 19 - 499
2008 – 0 – 9 - 377

Races

Never won the County Hurdle, Kim Muir, Brown Advisory or Ultima, having tried with 62 runners, 5 of which placed. In the Brown Advisory Nicky sends an average of 2 runners per year and has never once placed. Other than Call The Cops in 2015, Nicky has never placed in 34 attempts in the Pertemps and Brown Advisory

Never sent a runner cross country.

44% of all his runners go Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and Grand Annual. 6/11 losing favorites comes from these races.

It’s quite difficult to draw any meaningful trends/conclusions as 6/7 winners have come from different races spread across a number of years.

Conclusions

I love Nicky Henderson. His record in graded races at the Cheltenham Festival is second to none and should be applauded by all, but this success does not spill over into the handicaps (I doubt he gives one single shit when you look at his record on the Champion Hurdle, RSA, Champion Chase etc).

In the last 10 years 11/198 Nicky Henderson handicap entries have gone off favorite. None have won at the Cheltenham Festival.

His 7/198 winners have won with an average SP of 20/1, with 6/7 being won in different races.

Comparing to a trainer of similar size (stable wise ), Paul Nicholls has trained 5 more handicap winners than Nicky with 40 less attempts over the last 10 years, and posts a positive ROI of +£130 across all his runners, vs
- £530 for backing all of Nicky’s. Were it not for some big priced winners you would have done your absolute bollocks following Nicky Henderson over the last decade in handicaps at Cheltenham.

Nicky hasn’t won a handicap since 2015 at Cheltenham despite averaging 1 a year since 2008.

Paul and Nicky have had 1/22 winning favs between them at Cheltenham over the last 10 years.

Like I said at the start, Nicky will be dreaming about BVD and Altior doing the business and not whether or not he can land the Ultima for the first time, but I thought it made for interesting reading for us punters nonetheless

[Istabraq]

Great work that Charlie.
I always knew his record in handicaps wasn't great but had no idea it was that poor, your analysis has certainly given some clarity there.

This thread is a must read on Monday 11th March....

[doctorwu]

Great stuff Charlie. Why am I not surprised the Irish do well in the handicaps. You'll be putting a few more on that list after this seasons fez Imo.

[doctorwu]

Another graveyard race at the festival for Henderson & Nicholls is the 4 Miler. Neither has won the race, remember that when you sit with a some AP tickets.

[Quevega]

Another graveyard race at the festival for Henderson & Nicholls is the 4 Miler. Neither has won the race, remember that when you sit with a some AP tickets.

Only a silly billy would factor that stat into their thought process.

I changed the silly billy bit

[culloty]

Hello, how about Chris Jones owned horses? Zabana and Space Cadet off the bat. I'm sure a few and selected runners over the years as more of a Graded race hunter. Thanks.

[ComplyOrDie]

Hello, how about Chris Jones owned horses? Zabana and Space Cadet off the bat. I'm sure a few and selected runners over the years as more of a Graded race hunter. Thanks.

Shame they've ruined Ordinary World's rating with the performance behind Min, would have been a nice horse to have in the Grand Annual.

[culloty]

I thought the same about Ordinary World for last years Grand Annual. Davy possible jockey also.

[ComplyOrDie]

I thought the same about Ordinary World for last years Grand Annual. Davy possible jockey also.

Can totally understand wanting a running in the QMCC and potentially picking up place money at best, but I'd be looking for a winner myself and they could have gone to work on getting his mark down.

[culloty]

Not the owners style i guess which makes any horse running in a hcap all the more interesting. Maybe nothing in it but thought I'd throw it out there.