Owner / Trainer Handicap Analysis - 2008 - 2018

[charlie]

A few days ago I posted about JP McManus’ handicap record at Cheltenham over the past 10 years. After very kind words and a call for this to have its own thread, I thought I’d allocate this its own space and also start to look at other trainers / owners as we lead up towards the festival. Hurricane Fly mentioned David Pipe so I have added him because the ‘Pipe Plot’ is as common a phrase as the ‘JP Plot’.

If anyone has any trainer/owner requests happy to oblige, providing they have been around from 2008 - 2018 (not much point looking at smaller sample sizes)

JP McManus Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

Ultima
11 / 2 / 3 / 1
2 winners
2012 - Alfie Sherrin 14/1
2009 - Wichita Lineman 5/1f

Close Brothers
14 / 0 / 2 / 3

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
21 / 2 / 3 / 5
2009 - Garde Champetre 7/2f (he had the 1,2,3 that year)
2008 - Garde Champetre 4/1

Coral Cup
24 / 0 / 3 / 2

Pertemps
27 / 0 / 3 / 4

Brown Advisory
17 / 0 / 3 / 3

Kim Muir
19 / 2 / 2 / 3
2016 - Cause Of Causes 9/2f
2012 - Sunnyhillboy 13/2

Martin Pipe
16 / 0 / 2 / 1

County Hurdle
30 / 1 / 3 / 1 / 2
2012 - Alderwood 20/1

Grand Annual
26 / 3 / 3 / 2
2018 - Le Prezien 15/2
2013 - Alderwood 3/1f
2012 - Bellvano 20/1

The ‘Plot’

Garde Champetre 2009 - 11-12 – top weight
Sunnyhillboy – 11-11 – 2/23 in the weights
Cause Of Causes – 11-9 – 5/22 in the weights
Garde Champetre 2008 – 10-13- 6/16 in the weights
Le Prezien 11-8 – 6/22 in the weights
Wichita Lineman - 10-9 – 12/21 in the weights
Alderwood 2012 – 11-1 – 13/26 in the weights
Alderwood 2013 – 10-11 – 13/23 in the weights
Bellvano - 10-2 – 15/21 in the weights
Alfie Sherrin - 10-0 – Bottom weight

Summary

Total Handicap Runners: 205
Winners: 10 (4.8% strike rate)
Placed: 26 (12% strike rate)

27 (13%) of JP handicap runners have gone off favourite.
4 (14%) of those went on to win.
In the last 10 years Pendra, Bouvreuil & Get Me Out Of Here accounted for 43% of all his placed runners.

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down - £860.

The JP ‘plot job’ has little to no substance to it. Other than Alfie Sherrin who crept in off bottom weight, 50% of his winners were towards the top end of the weights. Nearly 15% of all his runners go off fav in handicaps because the public believe of ‘the plot’, but I suppose that’s good for the horses left in behind at bigger prices that we can all get stuck into.

JP Handicappers with Festival Experience/Form

Squouateur
2016 - Martin Pipe – 7/24
2017 - Kim Muir – UR
2018 - Kim Muir – 3/20

Cheltenham 2019 - Kim Muir – 16/1

Bouvreuil
2015 - Fred Winter – 2/22
2016 - Close Brothers – 2/20
2017 - Brown Advisory – 3/24
2018 - Grand Annual – BD

Cheltenham 2019 - Grand Annual - 33/1

Ivanovich Gorbatov
2016 – Triumph* - 1/15
2017 – County Hurdle – 6/25
2018 - County Hurdle – 17/25

Cheltenham 2019 – County Hurdle – 33/1

Le Prezien
2017 - Grand Annual – 8/24
2018 - Grand Annual – 1/22

No Comment
2017 - Martin Pipe – 7/23
2018 - National Hunt Chase – 6/16

Place Form 2018

Glenloe – Pertemps – 2/23
Early Doors - Martin Pipe – 3/23

The L15

Squouateur - Kim Muir – 16/1
Ivanovich Gorbatov - County Hurdle – 33/1
Bouvreuil - Grand Annual - 33/1
Glenloe – Ultima – 20/1

[charlie]

David Pipe Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

Ultima
14 / 3 / 1 / 2
2017 - Un Temps Pour Tout - 11-12 - 9/1
2016 - Un Temps Pour Tout - 11-7 - 11/1
2008 - An Accordion 7/1

Close Brothers
5 / 0 / 0 / 0

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
1 / 0 / 0 / 0

Coral Cup
15 / 0 / 1 / 0

Pertemps
22 / 2 / 2 / 3
2011 - Buena Vista - 10-8 - 20/1
2010 - Buena Vista - 10-4 - 16/1

Brown Advisory
18 / 3 / 2 / 2
2014 – Ballynagour 12/1
2012 - Salut Flo 9/2f
2010 - Great Endeavour 18/1

Kim Muir
28 / 2 / 2 / 2
2015 - The Package 9/1
2011 – Junior 10/3f

Martin Pipe
18 / 0 / 3 / 1

County Hurdle
10 / 0 / 0 / 0

Grand Annual
8 / 0 / 1 / 2

Summary

Total Handicap Runners: 139
Winners: 10 (7%)
Placed: 12 (9.3%)

12 (9%) of David Pipe trained horses have gone off favourite
2 (16%) of those went on to win

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£220

Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners

2018 – 0 – 7 - 361
2017 – 1 – 3 - 487
2016 – 1 - 4 571
2015 – 1 – 11 - 579
2014 – 1 - 10 591
2013 – 0 – 13 - 624
2012 – 1 - 16 632
2011 – 2 – 13 - 504
2010 – 2 – 12 - 562
2009 – 0 – 18 - 662
2008 – 1 – 14 - 698

During the 2011-12 season David Pipe had 632 NH runners and 16 Handicap runners at Cheltenham
Last year, David Pipe had 361 NH runners and only 7 Handicap runners at Cheltenham.

His number of NH runners have generally been on the decline which is reflected in the number he sends to Cheltenham. From 2008 -2015 he was always sending at least 10 handicappers to Cheltenham. In the last 3 years he has sent 14.

The ‘Plot’

Buena Vista & Un Temps Pour Tout account for 4/10 of his wins in the last decade.

I don’t think they can be described as plots. Un Temps Pour Tout was top weight when winning in 2017 & 9/23 in the weights when winning in 2016. Buena Vista was well handicapped when winning off 10-4 in 2010 which was 17/24 in the weights, and then off 10-8 in 2011 which was 11/22 in the weights

Conclusion

David Pipe places horses with festival form very well but the plot, similar to JP MacManus owned horses, is a myth. 9% of Pipe runners go off favourite in handicaps with only 2 of those going on to win. Pipe appears to have little interest in the Grand Annual, County Hurdle, Close Brothers and Cross Country. 46% of all his runners over the last decade have gone to the Kim Muir, Pertemps and Ultima.

Basically, he is not the force of old but because he has placed his horses well in the same races and landed a couple of back-to-back wins, there is this notion that Pipe ‘plot jobs’ happen regularly which they don't.

[mayo]

Paul Nicholls Charlie ?

[charlie]

Paul Nicholls Charlie ?

Good idea, I'l do that tomorrow.

[Eggs]

....fascinating stuff. I’m really not sure what the definition of a ‘plot horse’ is. Presumably one that’s been run to protect its handicap mark, and is particularly well in. Perhaps a significant price contraction is also a factor.

Be good if such horses could be retrospectively identified to determine owner/stable responsible.

[Quevega]

....fascinating stuff. I’m really not sure what the definition of a ‘plot horse’ is. Presumably one that’s been run to protect its handicap mark, and is particularly well in. Perhaps a significant price contraction is also a factor.

Be good if such horses could be retrospectively identified to determine owner/stable responsible.

be miles better to identify them before they run.

[Eggs]

be miles better to identify them before they run.

...brilliant. Thousands of pages dedicated to that on here.

[charlie]

Paul Nicholls Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

Ultima
12 / 0 / 0 / 0

Close Brothers
13 / 1 / 2 / 1
2009 – Chapoturgeon 8/1

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
4 / 0 / 0 / 0

Coral Cup
17 / 1 / 0 / 2
2015 - Aux Ptit Soins 9/1

Pertemps
14 / 0 / 2 / 3

Fred Winter
19 / 3 / 1 / 5
2016 - Diego Du Charmil 13/2 (1/2 with Diego Du Charmil & Romain De Senam)
2015 – Qualando 25/1 (1/2 with Qualando & Bouvreuil)
2010 – Sanctuaire 4/1jf

Brown Advisory
17 / 0 / 1 / 2

Kim Muir
8 / 0 / 0 / 0

Martin Pipe
18 / 2 / 0 / 1
2016 - Ibis Du Rheu 14/1
2013 – Salubrious 16/1

County Hurdle
16 / 2 / 1 / 1
2014 - Lac Fontana 11/1
2009 - American Trilogy 20/1

Grand Annual
20 / 3 / 3 / 0
2018 – Le Prezien 15/2
2016 - Solar Impulse 28/1
2008 – Andreas 12/1

Summary

Total Handicap Runners: 158
Winners: 12 (7.5% strike rate)
Placed: 15 (10%)

10 out of his 12 winners are French Bred.

10 losing favourites
1 winning favourite

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up £130

His average priced winner is 16/1

Race Summary

His record in the Ultima, Kim Muir & Cross Country is not good. 24 runners, no winners, no places, no favourites. The same can be said for the Pertemps and Brown Advisory, 31 bullets and never won.

10 (83%) of his winners have come from the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual.

A £10 level stake across these 4 races would leave you up £810.

Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners

Despite not having the graded horses he once did, his entries and handicap numbers are very consistent as you can see below:

2018 – 1 – 14 -576
2017 – 0 – 17 - 673
2016 – 3 – 19 - 568
2015 – 2 – 15 - 517
2014 – 1 – 17 - 587
2013 – 1 – 13 - 565
2012 – 0 – 10 - 598
2011 – 0 – 9 – 583
2010 – 1 – 16 - 533
2009 – 2 – 13 - 614
2008 – 1 – 16 - 610

The ‘Plot’

With 1 winning favourite, 10 losing favourites and an average SP on winners of 16/1 the Paul Nicholls plot (which isn’t a common term anyway) does not exist. I am only mentioning that because of how this thread started.

It’s clear the vast majority of his handicap winners go under the radar.

Conclusion

Again, probably not reaching conclusions people on here haven’t reached already, but Paul Nicholls is a benchmark of consistency. He is consistently poor in the Ultima, Kim Muir, Cross Country, Pertemps and Brown Advisory, and consistently strong in the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual. 83% of his handicap winners in the last decade have come from these 4 races where he has won 10/73. 75% of his handicap winners have gone off double figure prices so don’t be put off by larger prices. I'l get round to creating a list of his potential runners in the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual at some point.

[Kevloaf]

I'm surprised his record isn't good in the Ultima and Brown Plate .... he's clearly good with staying chasers and has won plenty of big staying chasee handicaps.

[Istabraq]

Only covers handicaps this Kev, Gold Cups and Foxhunters in which he excelled over the years aren’t included.

If you get time Charlie I’d be interested to see Jonjo’s record....

[Kevloaf]

Only covers handicaps this Kev, Gold Cups and Foxhunters in which he excelled over the years aren’t included.

If you get time Charlie I’d be interested to see Jonjo’s record....

Yeah I kn ow that, it's just surprising though isn't it... it's not like he doesn't have horses winning big staying handicaps every single season.... just seems odd they're not at the festival?

[Istabraq]

Maybe that’s why his ‘cappers don’t win at the festival, poor runs on wrong ground/wrong trips are the way to festival ‘capping glory surely ?

[Old Vic]

Fantastic work Charlie. Thank you.

[Kevloaf]

Maybe that’s why his ‘cappers don’t win at the festival, poor runs on wrong ground/wrong trips are the way to festival ‘capping glory surely ?

Aye, could well be a factor.

...and yeah, good work Charlie, your company are not as lucky to have you as we are

[charlie]

Only covers handicaps this Kev, Gold Cups and Foxhunters in which he excelled over the years aren’t included.

If you get time Charlie I’d be interested to see Jonjo’s record....

No problem, done.