Owner / Trainer Handicap Analysis - 2008 - 2018

[charlie]

In summary, I'd like to present Charlie's Guide to Handicap Betting at Cheltenham:

1) Bet on Davy Russell
2) Bet on Gigginstown, especially on the Martin Pipe and Brown Advisory
3) Bet on Mullins in the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle. Look out for Paul Townend
4) Bet on Paul Nicholls in the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual
5) Avoid Nicky Henderson (especially with his current focus being BVD and Altior)
6) David Pipe is adequate each-way
7) Avoid Jonjo O'Neill, especially as he tends to attract a fair bit of money

Probably more to come!

Excellent summary and useful first post. I am going to be doing quite a few more write ups on trainers/owners/jockeys, but i'l do a final summary with all findings on the Monday 11th.

[Humble Pie]

Davy Russell Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

The owner & trainer analysis has been so well received I thought I would look at Davy Russell’s handicap performance over the last decade.

In short, the man is a genius in handicaps around Cheltenham and would probably be the first person to credit the trainers and owners for giving him the opportunity. The numbers do the talking, no more need be said.

Year / Position / Horse / Price / Trainer

Wins in bold
Placed 2-4 in italics

Ultima
2017 / 3rd / Noble Endeavor / 15/2 / G Elliott
2016 / 4th / Morning Assembly / 10/1 / P A Fahy
2014 / F / Vintage Star / 16/1 / Mrs S J Smith
2009 / 14th / Cailin Alainn / 13/2 / C Byrnes
2008 / 2nd / New Alco / 10/1 / Ferdy Murphy

Close Brothers
2018 / PU / De Plotting Shed / 11/2 / G Elliott
2017 / 3rd / Two Taffs / 7/1 / D Skelton
2013 / PU / Carlito Brigante / 8/1 / G Elliott
2012 / 15th / Going Wrong / 9/1 / Ferdy Murphy
2011 / 6th / Tharawaat / 14/1 / G Elliott
2009 / 9th / Slash And Burn / 20/1 / C F Swan
2008 / 10th / Lord Ryeford / 20/1 / T R George

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
2015 / 1st / Rivage D'Or / 16/1 / A J Martin
2011 / RO / One Cool Cookie / 16/1 / C F Swan
2010 / 13th / Preists Leap / 33/1 / T G O'Leary
2009 / 5th / Dix Villez / 8/1 / P Nolan
2008 / 2nd / Native Jack / 40/1 / P J Rothwell

Coral Cup
2018 / PU / Diamond King / 33/1 / G Elliott
2016 / 1st / Diamond King / 12/1 / G Elliott
2014 / PU / Party Rock / 28/1 / Jennie Candlish
2013 / F / Un Beau Matin / 16/1 / G Elliott
2012 / PU / Carlito Brigante / 16/1 / G Elliott
2011 / 1st / Carlito Brigante / 16/1 / G Elliott
2010 / 13th / Psycho / 7/1 / A J Martin
2009 / 1st / Naiad du Misselot / 7/1 / Ferdy Murphy
2008 / 10th / Ross River / 14/1 / A J Martin

Fred Winter
2017 / 10th / Long Call / 9/1 / A J Martin

Pertemps
2018 / 1st / Delta Work / 6/1 / G Elliott
2017 / 1st / Presenting Percy / 11/1 / P G Kelly
2016 / 1st / Mall Dini / 14/1 / P G Kelly
2013 / 8th / Stonemaster / 14/1 / D T Hughes
2010 / PU / Time Electric / 16/1 / T Mullins

Brown Advisory
2018 / 1st / The Storyteller / 5/1f / G Elliott
2017 / PU / Diamond King / 5/1f / G Elliott
2010 / PU / Made In Taipan / 25/1 / T Mullins
2009 / 3rd / Notable D'Estruval / 8/1 / A L T Moore

County Hurdle
2018 / 11th / Ben Dundee / 12/1 / G Elliott
2015 / 18th / Rich Coast / 25/1 / N Meade
2011 / 21st / Grey Soldier / 14/1 / G Elliott
2010 / 18th / Bahrain Storm / 33/1 / P J Flynn
2008 / 13th / Eagle's Pass / 16/1 / T J O'Mara

Grand Annual
2018 / 3rd / Top Gamble / 8/1 / Kerry Lee
2017 / 4th / Dandridge / 13/2 / A L T Moore
2016 / 2nd / Dandridge / 8/1 / A L T Moore
2014 / 1st / Savello / 16/1 / A J Martin
2009 / 5th / Tiger Cry / 14/1 / A L T Moore
2008 / 1st / Tiger Cry / 15/2 / A L T Moore

Overall Summary

Total Rides: 47
Wins: 10 (21%)

2nds: 3 (6%)
3rds: 4 (8%)
4ths: 2 (4%)

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£735.

Assuming you are paid 1-4 on a place, Davy has won or placed in 17/47 handicaps at Cheltenham, a strike rate of 40%.

The average SP of Davy’s winner’s is 10/1.

He has lost on 1 favourite in 47 rides (Diamond King, Brown Advisory 2017)

Race Summary

His best strike rates are in the Pertemps 3/5, and Coral Cup 3/9
Never finished outside the top 5 in the Grand Annual.
Never finished inside the top 10 in the County Hurdle
Placed 1/7 in Close Brothers
He has placed in 3/5 Ultima’s

Trainer Summary

His record for Pat Kelly is 2/2
His record for Arthur Moore from 5 runs is 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.
His record for A J Martin 2 wins from 5 runs. Rivage D’or & Savello
He has won 4 times for Gordon from 14 rides

WOW brilliant
Thanks mate
Analysts supremo

[jono]

Excellent summary and useful first post. I am going to be doing quite a few more write ups on trainers/owners/jockeys, but i'l do a final summary with all findings on the Monday 11th.

This really is superb stuff charlie. Can't imagine it was a quick thing to run through either.
Brilliant

[Faugheen_Machine]

Excellent summary and useful first post. I am going to be doing quite a few more write ups on trainers/owners/jockeys, but i'l do a final summary with all findings on the Monday 11th.

Outstanding again Charlie. Loving the work

[BigChaang]

This really is superb stuff charlie. Can't imagine it was a quick thing to run through either.
Brilliant

I Agree , Thankyou Charlie , Hope you get some due reward for your effort this Festival.

[The King Pimm]

Thank you Charlie for that information, amazing analyse and something I wish I had read thoroughly before committing so many ante post accumulators. A massive help and very much appreciated.

[The Don]

Fantastic stuff

[The King Pimm]

Without getting too needy and greedy would you guys who clearly know your melons from your lemons be kind enough to post some horse selections that fit the criteria to compliment Charlie’s analysis?? I generally struggle with the big field handicap hurdles at the Festival so any horses that you think are worth backing based on analysis would be a big help. I appreciate we don’t know which jockeys will definitely be riding which horses especially Davy Russell but any horses to back a month before??

[The King Pimm]

Without getting too needy and greedy would you guys who clearly know your melons from your lemons be kind enough to post some horse selections that fit the criteria to compliment Charlie’s analysis?? I generally struggle with the big field handicap hurdles at the Festival so any horses that you think are worth backing based on analysis would be a big help. I appreciate we don’t know which jockeys will definitely be riding which horses especially Davy Russell but any horses to back a month before??

[charlie]

Without getting too needy and greedy would you guys who clearly know your melons from your lemons be kind enough to post some horse selections that fit the criteria to compliment Charlie’s analysis?? I generally struggle with the big field handicap hurdles at the Festival so any horses that you think are worth backing based on analysis would be a big help. I appreciate we don’t know which jockeys will definitely be riding which horses especially Davy Russell but any horses to back a month before??

I'l add a 'with a view to Cheltenham' to the final summary, looking at potential runners. Will summarize everything on Monday 11th as well

[The King Pimm]

Ok thanks Charlie, I’ll look to reading that cheers

[Aldie1988]

Been a while since I've posted chaps I've been busy as hell. Great insight from all involved.

Charlie all of this analysis is invaluable mate. Top man

How early do you think Russell will be jocked up, so we can claim some decent prices before the raceday gambles?

[charlie]

Venetia Williams Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Nick, Ian and Evan made this far more time consuming than it had to be

Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

Ultima
15 / 0 / 0 / 0

Close Brothers
10 / 0 / 0 / 0

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
0 / 0 / 0 / 0

Coral Cup
6 / 0 / 0 / 0

Fred Winter
8 / 0 / 0 / 0

Pertemps
7 / 1 / 0 / 0
2009 - Kayf Aramis 16/1

Brown Advisory
20 / 2 / 1 / 2
2013 – Carrickboy 50/1
2009 - Something Wells 33/1

Kim Muir
9 / 0 / 0 / 1

Martin Pipe
8 / 0 / 0 / 1

County Hurdle
5 / 0 / 0 / 0

Grand Annual
13 / 0 / 0 / 1

Summary

Total Handicap Runners: 101
Winners: 3
Placed: 3

A £10 level stake across all her handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£10

Has never placed in the County Hurdle, Fred Winter, Coral Cup, Close Brothers or Ultima.

This is actually a really straightforward one to sum up. Open your Racing Post each morning during the festival, turn to the Cheltenham cards, take a pen and unless you see ‘Brown Advisory’ listed as the race in question, put a line through every one of VW runners and move on.

Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners

2018 – 0 – 5 - 305
2017 – 0 – 9 - 312
2016 – 0 – 8 - 419
2015 – 0 – 9 - 441
2014 – 0 – 10 - 574
2013 – 1 – 14 - 533
2012 – 0 – 11 - 401
2011 – 0 – 9 - 372
2010 – 0 – 7 - 404
2009 – 2 – 13 - 424
2008 – 0 – 6 - 465

Conclusion with a view to Cheltenham

Ignore every runner VW sends to the Cheltenham festival unless it runs in the Brown Advisory. I love it when trainers target a handicap and VW sends more horses down the Brown Advisory route than any other race.

I have backed Cepage 14/1 EW NRNB Brown Advisory.

With Frodon now Gold Cup bound that form in Caspian Caviar Gold Cup is looking solid, as is beating BetVictor Gold Cup winner Baron Alco 17 lengths and Guitar Pete 15 lengths last time out (albeit receiving weight). Baron Alco was 2nd in the Brown Advisory in 2017 and Guitar Pete was 6th in the Brown Advisory last year.

If you watch the Caspian Caviar back (link below) Cepage jumps well, wings the 3rd last and as he comes down the hill Charlie Deutsch gives him a few reminders then realises quite quickly he had enough left to come up to Frodon. Was then pushed up the hill to mount a challenge, jumped the last 3 lengths down before rallying well to lose by a length. The way he rallied was eye catching, as was the improvement in his jumping in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup vs his previous run at Cheltenham. He is still relatively young and there’s no reason to think there isn’t improvement in him

https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/the-racing/race

replays/2018/12/15/#caspian_caviar_gold_cup_handicap_chase_grade_3

Venetia is having a brilliant season too. She’s already approaching last season’s prize-money total and there are just under 3 months of the season still left to go. Charlie Deutsch has been absolutely flying since his return and Venetia says "He’s so good from the front and it makes sense that he often goes there - you haven’t got horses intimidating you, you can get into a rhythm and you have a nice view of the fences”. Given Cepage had no problem following a strong pace set by Frodon in the Caspian Caviar, I think they will jump Cepage out prominently and try and win it from the front. The engine and desire to chase Frodon up that hill and is exactly what I want to be seeing from a horse over C&D before backing them for the Brown Advisory

[culloty]

It is worth pointing out that P Townend was originally jocked up for Bleu Berry but had to switch to Max Dynamite after Ruby got injured.

Also out of the 'Davy Hcap' stats I see 2 Chris Jones horses ( Noble Endeavor 3rd ; Tiger Cry 5th and 1st ). Not bad without having to dig too deep.

Excellent stats etc btw. Thanks.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Great stuff Charlie, need one for the BA so following you in on Cepage