Owner / Trainer Handicap Analysis - 2008 - 2018

[Kevloaf]

Slightly misread, could just be one for Giggi

Interesting all the same...

[charlie]

Willie Mullins Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

Ultima
0 / 0 / 0 / 0

Close Brothers
4 / 0 / 0 / 1

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
10 / 0 / 1 / 1

Coral Cup
26 / 1 / 3 / 1
2018 - Bleu Berry 20/1

Fred Winter
10 / 0 / 0 / 0

Pertemps
3 / 0 / 0 / 1

Brown Advisory
4 / 0 / 0 / 0

Kim Muir
6 / 0 / 0 / 0

Martin Pipe
18 / 3 / 2 / 1
2015 - Killultagh Vic 7/1
2014 - Don Poli 12/1
2011 - Sir Des Champs 9/2f

County Hurdle
27 / 4 / 1 / 3
2017 - Arctic Fire 20/1
2015 - Wicklow Brave 25/1
2011 - Final Approach 10/1
2010 - Thousand Stars 20/1

Grand Annual
4 / 0 / 1 / 0

Summary

Total Handicap Runners: 112
Winners: 8 (7%)
Placed: 8 (7.6%)

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£145

Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners (Ireland only)

2018 – 1 – 17 - 797
2017 – 1 – 10 - 571
2016 – 0 – 14 - 557
2015 – 2 – 18 - 554
2014 – 1 – 13 - 665
2013 – 0 – 15 - 595
2012 – 0 – 6 - 498
2011 – 2 – 7 - 467
2010 – 1 – 10 - 545
2009 – 0 – 1 - 514
2008 – 0 – 0 - 562

Races

Never sent a horse to the Ultima. 22 (20%) of his horses have run in the Close Brothers, Pertemps, Brown Advisory, Kim Muir and Grand Annual. He has never won those 6 races, or the Fred Winter and Cross Country.

He has sent 42 horses to 8/11 handicaps, all of which he has never won.

71 (63%) of all Willies runners go to the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle. 100% of all his handicap winners have come from these races.

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners in the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£555

P Townend is his most successful handicap jockey having won twice and been third twice.

Average priced winner is 14/1. He has 1 winning favourite, 8 losing favourites.

Conclusion

The 2 things that surprised me were the number of handicappers he has sent to the festival (lower than I thought) and how clearly he targets specific races.

I thought 83% of Paul Nicholls winners coming from 4 races (Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle, Grand Annual) was a stand out stat, but 100% of Willie Mullins handicap winners over the last decade have come from the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle.

With an average SP of 14/1 you would be in the gravy backing his horses off level stakes in just these 3 races. I would be weary with the Coral Cup but his performance in the Martin Pipe & County Hurdle are exceptional.

[Istabraq]

So unless running in novice or championship races avoid Mullins chasers...

[ComplyOrDie]

Nice one Charlie. On percentage call the County and the Martin Pipe are clear standouts for him for placed horses or better, so I will be taking a keen interest in them 2 races this festival for him. Maybe a few cross doubles on his runners too, especially at the prices he seems to hit a winner at too.

[Old Vic]

Charlie - thank you - hopeful we can all make this pay.

[Innoko]

And if not, we know where you live...

[charlie]

And if not, we know where you live...

Hahahaha

[Outlaw]

So unless running in novice or championship races avoid Mullins chasers...

I think I'm right in saying he's never had a hcap chase winner .

[Ball Mark]

Willie Mullins Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

Ultima
0 / 0 / 0 / 0

Close Brothers
4 / 0 / 0 / 1

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
10 / 0 / 1 / 1

Coral Cup
26 / 1 / 3 / 1
2018 - Bleu Berry 20/1

Fred Winter
10 / 0 / 0 / 0

Pertemps
3 / 0 / 0 / 1

Brown Advisory
4 / 0 / 0 / 0

Kim Muir
6 / 0 / 0 / 0

Martin Pipe
18 / 3 / 2 / 1
2015 - Killultagh Vic 7/1
2014 - Don Poli 12/1
2011 - Sir Des Champs 9/2f

County Hurdle
27 / 4 / 1 / 3
2017 - Arctic Fire 20/1
2015 - Wicklow Brave 25/1
2011 - Final Approach 10/1
2010 - Thousand Stars 20/1

Grand Annual
4 / 0 / 1 / 0

Summary

Total Handicap Runners: 112
Winners: 8 (7%)
Placed: 8 (7.6%)

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£145

Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners (Ireland only)

2018 – 1 – 17 - 797
2017 – 1 – 10 - 571
2016 – 0 – 14 - 557
2015 – 2 – 18 - 554
2014 – 1 – 13 - 665
2013 – 0 – 15 - 595
2012 – 0 – 6 - 498
2011 – 2 – 7 - 467
2010 – 1 – 10 - 545
2009 – 0 – 1 - 514
2008 – 0 – 0 - 562

Races

Never sent a horse to the Ultima. 22 (20%) of his horses have run in the Close Brothers, Pertemps, Brown Advisory, Kim Muir and Grand Annual. He has never won those 6 races, or the Fred Winter and Cross Country.

He has sent 42 horses to 8/11 handicaps, all of which he has never won.

71 (63%) of all Willies runners go to the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle. 100% of all his handicap winners have come from these races.

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners in the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£555

P Townend is his most successful handicap jockey having won twice and been third twice.

Average priced winner is 14/1. He has 1 winning favourite, 8 losing favourites.

Conclusion

The 2 things that surprised me were the number of handicappers he has sent to the festival (lower than I thought) and how clearly he targets specific races.

I thought 83% of Paul Nicholls winners coming from 4 races (Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle, Grand Annual) was a stand out stat, but 100% of Willie Mullins handicap winners over the last decade have come from the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle.

With an average SP of 14/1 you would be in the gravy backing his horses off level stakes in just these 3 races. I would be weary with the Coral Cup but his performance in the Martin Pipe & County Hurdle are exceptional.

Many Irish hurdlers are given lenient marks particularly those who have had just 3/4 runs. The win to runners ratio of Irish hurdlers is far too high so our UK handicapper has some work to do. It's not a level playing field.

The UK handicapper has a far better handle on Irish chasers bar some novices (EG - The Storyteller) who have run in Graded races and have got a mark against the best of the Irish.

[charlie]

Davy Russell Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

The owner & trainer analysis has been so well received I thought I would look at Davy Russell’s handicap performance over the last decade.

In short, the man is a genius in handicaps around Cheltenham and would probably be the first person to credit the trainers and owners for giving him the opportunity. The numbers do the talking, no more need be said.

Year / Position / Horse / Price / Trainer

Wins in bold
Placed 2-4 in italics

Ultima
2017 / 3rd / Noble Endeavor / 15/2 / G Elliott
2016 / 4th / Morning Assembly / 10/1 / P A Fahy
2014 / F / Vintage Star / 16/1 / Mrs S J Smith
2009 / 14th / Cailin Alainn / 13/2 / C Byrnes
2008 / 2nd / New Alco / 10/1 / Ferdy Murphy

Close Brothers
2018 / PU / De Plotting Shed / 11/2 / G Elliott
2017 / 3rd / Two Taffs / 7/1 / D Skelton
2013 / PU / Carlito Brigante / 8/1 / G Elliott
2012 / 15th / Going Wrong / 9/1 / Ferdy Murphy
2011 / 6th / Tharawaat / 14/1 / G Elliott
2009 / 9th / Slash And Burn / 20/1 / C F Swan
2008 / 10th / Lord Ryeford / 20/1 / T R George

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
2015 / 1st / Rivage D'Or / 16/1 / A J Martin
2011 / RO / One Cool Cookie / 16/1 / C F Swan
2010 / 13th / Preists Leap / 33/1 / T G O'Leary
2009 / 5th / Dix Villez / 8/1 / P Nolan
2008 / 2nd / Native Jack / 40/1 / P J Rothwell

Coral Cup
2018 / PU / Diamond King / 33/1 / G Elliott
2016 / 1st / Diamond King / 12/1 / G Elliott
2014 / PU / Party Rock / 28/1 / Jennie Candlish
2013 / F / Un Beau Matin / 16/1 / G Elliott
2012 / PU / Carlito Brigante / 16/1 / G Elliott
2011 / 1st / Carlito Brigante / 16/1 / G Elliott
2010 / 13th / Psycho / 7/1 / A J Martin
2009 / 1st / Naiad du Misselot / 7/1 / Ferdy Murphy
2008 / 10th / Ross River / 14/1 / A J Martin

Fred Winter
2017 / 10th / Long Call / 9/1 / A J Martin

Pertemps
2018 / 1st / Delta Work / 6/1 / G Elliott
2017 / 1st / Presenting Percy / 11/1 / P G Kelly
2016 / 1st / Mall Dini / 14/1 / P G Kelly
2013 / 8th / Stonemaster / 14/1 / D T Hughes
2010 / PU / Time Electric / 16/1 / T Mullins

Brown Advisory
2018 / 1st / The Storyteller / 5/1f / G Elliott
2017 / PU / Diamond King / 5/1f / G Elliott
2010 / PU / Made In Taipan / 25/1 / T Mullins
2009 / 3rd / Notable D'Estruval / 8/1 / A L T Moore

County Hurdle
2018 / 11th / Ben Dundee / 12/1 / G Elliott
2015 / 18th / Rich Coast / 25/1 / N Meade
2011 / 21st / Grey Soldier / 14/1 / G Elliott
2010 / 18th / Bahrain Storm / 33/1 / P J Flynn
2008 / 13th / Eagle's Pass / 16/1 / T J O'Mara

Grand Annual
2018 / 3rd / Top Gamble / 8/1 / Kerry Lee
2017 / 4th / Dandridge / 13/2 / A L T Moore
2016 / 2nd / Dandridge / 8/1 / A L T Moore
2014 / 1st / Savello / 16/1 / A J Martin
2009 / 5th / Tiger Cry / 14/1 / A L T Moore
2008 / 1st / Tiger Cry / 15/2 / A L T Moore

Overall Summary

Total Rides: 47
Wins: 10 (21%)

2nds: 3 (6%)
3rds: 4 (8%)
4ths: 2 (4%)

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£735.

Assuming you are paid 1-4 on a place, Davy has won or placed in 17/47 handicaps at Cheltenham, a strike rate of 40%.

The average SP of Davy’s winner’s is 10/1.

He has lost on 1 favourite in 47 rides (Diamond King, Brown Advisory 2017)

Race Summary

His best strike rates are in the Pertemps 3/5, and Coral Cup 3/9
Never finished outside the top 5 in the Grand Annual.
Never finished inside the top 10 in the County Hurdle
Placed 1/7 in Close Brothers
He has placed in 3/5 Ultima’s

Trainer Summary

His record for Pat Kelly is 2/2
His record for Arthur Moore from 5 runs is 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.
His record for A J Martin 2 wins from 5 runs. Rivage D’or & Savello
He has won 4 times for Gordon from 14 rides

[ComplyOrDie]

Fantastic Charlie.

All aboard the Davy Russell handicap boat.....

[robith]

Charlie - this is stunning stuff.

Question for everyone really - as someone who does some natty analysis at work I'd love to take stuff like this on but I find data collection is incredibly manual. What sources do people use?

[archie]

I've already identified backing Gordon & Willie handicap hurdle runners as a possible betting strategy so it's gratifying to see Charlie's hard work (thank you) tending to support it.

[PadstheFish]

In summary, I'd like to present Charlie's Guide to Handicap Betting at Cheltenham:

1) Bet on Davy Russell
2) Bet on Gigginstown, especially on the Martin Pipe and Brown Advisory
3) Bet on Mullins in the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle. Look out for Paul Townend
4) Bet on Paul Nicholls in the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual
5) Avoid Nicky Henderson (especially with his current focus being BVD and Altior)
6) David Pipe is adequate each-way
7) Avoid Jonjo O'Neill, especially as he tends to attract a fair bit of money

Probably more to come!

[Quevega]

In summary, I'd like to present Charlie's Guide to Handicap Betting at Cheltenham:

1) Bet on Davy Russell
2) Bet on Gigginstown, especially on the Martin Pipe and Brown Advisory
3) Bet on Mullins in the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle. Look out for Paul Townend
4) Bet on Paul Nicholls in the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual
5) Avoid Nicky Henderson (especially with his current focus being BVD and Altior)
6) David Pipe is adequate each-way
7) Avoid Jonjo O'Neill, especially as he tends to attract a fair bit of money

Probably more to come!

Good summary,
remember this for next year so that it saves charlie a bit of time.