Stupid Questions

[Irish Rugby]

You don't with Willie unless you want to move stables. The remark about Patrick is just wrong as well. Apart from knowing the horses from the training ground, he will be thoroughly briefed by Willie. He also generally jogs a circuit of the course to check out the ground.

On bumpers I don't mind him, he makes the odd mistake but they all do. Not crabbing his role as assistant trainer, but I have to agree with many of you. He's not Paul or Danny. I would usually avoid all his jumpers.

[Carnage at Taunton]

You don't with Willie unless you want to move stables. The remark about Patrick is just wrong as well. Apart from knowing the horses from the training ground, he will be thoroughly briefed by Willie. He also generally jogs a circuit of the course to check out the ground.

I don’t doubt he knows the horses and he can check out the course as much as he likes, don’t mean he’s not a liability on a horse that needs to jump an amount of obstacles
And imo he is a big liability

[FinalFurlong91]

He's a perfectly capable jockey

He's not David maxwell

But Danny is a very very good jockey and he should be on all the 2nd strings

[Kevloaf]

He's a perfectly capable jockey

He's not David maxwell

But Danny is a very very good jockey and he should be on all the 2nd strings

Completely agree.

Is there anyone on the inside that knows why he doesn't get them?

Some one should ask

[Carnage at Taunton]

Thing that does me……we see time and time again, big races with very few runners, and an amateur is on one of them!!
The Irish pros not connected to the yard not allowed to ride?
You have to be the trainers son?
Imo owners need to realise their are other trainers that know their stuff, and can actually get a jock that will give their horse the best chance.

[TigerRolllllll]

Thing that does me……we see time and time again, big races with very few runners, and an amateur is on one of them!!
The Irish pros not connected to the yard not allowed to ride?
You have to be the trainers son?
Imo owners need to realise their are other trainers that know their stuff, and can actually get a jock that will give their horse the best chance.

Willie is obviously amazing…..but in terms of G1 return (certainly at Chelt), Henry is prob close in terms of bang for buck (just gets far far less horses) & Gavin Cromwell really making strides, etc.

I wouldn’t rush to GE, but loads better Irish options …before even start on Nicholls, Hendo & UK options

Hardly ever does Willie win with a second string in G1s at Chelt & there is an obvious question

[Hurricane fly]

I have seen someone on twitter questioning Gordon's G1 return for money spent and it probably is a fair one.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I have seen someone on twitter questioning Gordon's G1 return for money spent and it probably is a fair one.

Yes it probably is fair.
Dont know off hand how many G1 in Ireland but I suspect it’s not a good percentage.
When it comes to Cheltenham he’s certainly short of what his owners would want imo, and he seems to be desperate for any winner there, especially when one looks at the potential x country runners.That and handicaps probably his main hopes for a winner or two this year.
Sorry, forgot the stayers hurdle, has a good chance there

[Jrow]

Dineen touched on this a little on upping the ante regarding horses names. In my opinion Readin Tommy Wrong should be second fav for the baring bingham. I wonder if he was called something rather french sounding he would be shorter….. this is the stupid questions thread afterall

[Madmoose]

Dineen touched on this a little on upping the ante regarding horses names. In my opinion Readin Tommy Wrong should be second fav for the baring bingham. I wonder if he was called something rather french sounding he would be shorter….. this is the stupid questions thread afterall

Townend may get him in the AB to ride if he wants to split Ballyburn, Ile Atlantique and Tommy. Jacob even said he would be suited to further.

[OffTheBridle]

Does Cleatus Poolaw need another run to get in the hurdle handicaps at Cheltenham? He has 3 runs over hurdles from looking.
or can someone advise on the criteria for handicaps

[Benjy23]

Does Cleatus Poolaw need another run to get in the hurdle handicaps at Cheltenham? He has 3 runs over hurdles from looking.
or can someone advise on the criteria for handicaps

Yea, needs a 4th run

[The Tank]

Bit of a lurker and very infrequent poster (don't really feel like there is much i could add that other much more clued up memebrs havent said beofre really), so feel free to ignore if you cant be @rsed to reply! But here goes....

Do Bet365 have bespoke algorithms for each punter? I read a post recently where someone had commented they'd cashed out their 16/1 ante post bet with Bet 365 for a profit (that they'd placed just after the DRF) on Facile Vega for the Arkle. I placed the exact same bet at the same time, he's now 9/1 in that market so a little profit on the cashout would seem reasonable, but my cashout is just showing stake back. I have a lot of others that seem to be the same, some examples where the price has halved or more: Gidleigh @ 25's now 12's. YOK @ 20's, now 10's. Majborough @ 14's, now 8's. Jeriko @12's, now 8's. All of these are just showing stake back. In prior years i recall the cashout being much more "generous" i.e. more in line with the mathematics of the price contraction. I do have some that are showing a profit on cashout (e.g. SAF backed at 16/1, now 7/2, cashout showing 2.6Pts return on a 1pt bet). And, on the flip side, it goes without saying that my bets where the price has lengthened ALL show a lower cashout than stake back.

So, just going back to the pojnt about Facile Vega, are cashouts different for different people?

[Quevega]

Bit of a lurker and very infrequent poster (don't really feel like there is much i could add that other much more clued up memebrs havent said beofre really), so feel free to ignore if you cant be @rsed to reply! But here goes....

Do Bet365 have bespoke algorithms for each punter? I read a post recently where someone had commented they'd cashed out their 16/1 ante post bet with Bet 365 for a profit (that they'd placed just after the DRF) on Facile Vega for the Arkle. I placed the exact same bet at the same time, he's now 9/1 in that market so a little profit on the cashout would seem reasonable, but my cashout is just showing stake back. I have a lot of others that seem to be the same, some examples where the price has halved or more: Gidleigh @ 25's now 12's. YOK @ 20's, now 10's. Majborough @ 14's, now 8's. Jeriko @12's, now 8's. All of these are just showing stake back. In prior years i recall the cashout being much more "generous" i.e. more in line with the mathematics of the price contraction. I do have some that are showing a profit on cashout (e.g. SAF backed at 16/1, now 7/2, cashout showing 2.6Pts return on a 1pt bet). And, on the flip side, it goes without saying that my bets where the price has lengthened ALL show a lower cashout than stake back.

So, just going back to the pojnt about Facile Vega, are cashouts different for different people?

Each way would impact it don't forget, and the fact they offer antepost prices and NRNB now may affect it.

I have the same bet as you for Stay away fay and same level of cash out.
Don't have any of the others at those prices though. But some look right on the edge of being over the stake cash outs,

Paddypower definitely have different algorithms though as I rarely get offered anything above stake, and know that others do. I doubt it's per individual but maybe just a grading system.
I'd be surprised if B365 don't so similar but I'm not as aware of it as I am PP.

[Rooster Booster]

Bit of a lurker and very infrequent poster (don't really feel like there is much i could add that other much more clued up memebrs havent said beofre really), so feel free to ignore if you cant be @rsed to reply! But here goes....

Do Bet365 have bespoke algorithms for each punter? I read a post recently where someone had commented they'd cashed out their 16/1 ante post bet with Bet 365 for a profit (that they'd placed just after the DRF) on Facile Vega for the Arkle. I placed the exact same bet at the same time, he's now 9/1 in that market so a little profit on the cashout would seem reasonable, but my cashout is just showing stake back. I have a lot of others that seem to be the same, some examples where the price has halved or more: Gidleigh @ 25's now 12's. YOK @ 20's, now 10's. Majborough @ 14's, now 8's. Jeriko @12's, now 8's. All of these are just showing stake back. In prior years i recall the cashout being much more "generous" i.e. more in line with the mathematics of the price contraction. I do have some that are showing a profit on cashout (e.g. SAF backed at 16/1, now 7/2, cashout showing 2.6Pts return on a 1pt bet). And, on the flip side, it goes without saying that my bets where the price has lengthened ALL show a lower cashout than stake back.

So, just going back to the pojnt about Facile Vega, are cashouts different for different people?

I don’t have an account with them but you have stated that all bar one of your cash outs are for stake or lower. Logically this indicates that they may have a variable that they can flex per customer to determine when the algorithm should kick in when taken price exceeds current price.

The biggest percentage difference between the price you took and current price is SAF which might mean you have exceeded your personalised threshold on this horse.

I am only guessing of course but this would be a simpler explanation than having a unique algorithm per customer unless they have an additional predicted profitability calculation in place that they apply to every customer and use this to drive their cash out offers.

Something like this would result in customers with higher predicted profitability being offered higher cash out amounts as their predicted liability would be higher. Essentially this is similar in principle to risk based pricing for loans but instead of predicting the chances of loan default and adjusting the price accordingly they predict profitability rate and price accordingly (by adjusting the cash out amount).

I am guessing of course but these are two possible explanations why you may have a different cash out amount. Others better qualified than me may be able to give you much better/more accurate responses.