Stupid Questions

[Supermaster]

If I was to bet against Appreciate It.

I'd side with Metier.

The Irish have all been beaten and you're hoping the change of track conditions and other factors will mean a turn up, which is not out of the question.

But Metier is effectively unexposed, and his flat pedigree means he should have good pace on better ground, which makes his Tolworth performance against admittedly poor opposition all the more impressive IMO. He has also won races from the front and has been held up.

I agree Quevega. Apart from the important Mullins factor there seems no reason to think Appreciate It is that much better than Metier

[Can't Catch Me]

I agree Quevega. Apart from the important Mullins factor there seems no reason to think Appreciate It is that much better than Metier

No reason?! Apart from the small reason he is rated 11lbs superior on all known form.

Metier might prove to be better than Appreciate It. But there is nothing substantive to base it on right now.

[Quevega]

No reason?! Apart from the small reason he is rated 11lbs superior on all known form.

Metier might prove to be better than Appreciate It. But there is nothing substantive to base it on right now.

I agree
I wouldn’t go so far as supermaster suggests.
not 11lb though is it ?

[DenmanSacre]

No reason?! Apart from the small reason he is rated 11lbs superior on all known form.

Metier might prove to be better than Appreciate It. But there is nothing substantive to base it on right now.

Whose he rated 11 pounds superior by? Can't see how you can rate AI 11 pounds superior on form when none of the form lines have mixed.

If someone wanted to make an argument Metier was better with facts, it wouldn't be difficult to make.

[Can't Catch Me]

Sorry its 5lb isnt it. My apologies. Still, a decent enough difference to use as reason he's achieved more.

[Can't Catch Me]

Whose he rated 11 pounds superior by? Can't see how you can rate AI 11 pounds superior on form when none of the form lines have mixed.

If someone wanted to make an argument Metier was better with facts, it wouldn't be difficult to make.

Go on then DS! Be genuinely interested to hear how you can do it 'factually'....

[Supermaster]

Whose he rated 11 pounds superior by? Can't see how you can rate AI 11 pounds superior on form when none of the form lines have mixed.

If someone wanted to make an argument Metier was better with facts, it wouldn't be difficult to make.

This is what I was thinking. How can you know that Appreciate it has beaten better horses than Metier given there have been so few races of GB v Irish novices until the Festival? Also given each has been winning easily what is the ceiling to how good they are?

I think the main reason to prefer AI is the undoubted Mullins factor. 5 previous wins in the race can't be knocked.

[Can't Catch Me]

This is what I was thinking. How can you know that Appreciate it has beaten better horses than Metier given there have been so few races of GB v Irish novices until the Festival? Also given each has been winning easily what is the ceiling to how good they are?

I think the main reason to prefer AI is the undoubted Mullins factor. 5 previous wins in the race can't be knocked.

I would be very, very confident AI has beaten better horses... has Metier beaten a single half decent animal? Shakem'up arry is probably the best horse Metier has beaten. What price would he be if he lined up in the Supreme?

Obviously he cant do any more than win easily, but there is absolutely no substance to his form whatsoever.

[Altior]

It's funny, I'd argue the form Appreciate It has going into this race would rival any novice hurdler of the last decade.

[ToniC]

It's funny, I'd argue the form Appreciate It has going into this race would rival any novice hurdler of the last decade.

In terms of what he’s achieved vs his rivals definitely. How many of those lining up from Ireland hasn’t been beaten at least once already

probably not the strongest of renewals and anybody on at big prices would be mad not to cover metier but his form is really good

[Kevloaf]

Some wind up merchants on the prowl

[Altior]

In terms of what he’s achieved vs his rivals definitely. How many of those lining up from Ireland hasn’t been beaten at least once already

probably not the strongest of renewals and anybody on at big prices would be mad not to cover metier but his form is really good

I think Metier is the lay of the meet potentially, I'll probably have a place lay on the day if the price stays like this.

[ToniC]

I think Metier is the lay of the meet potentially, I'll probably have a place lay on the day if the price stays like this.

I wouldn’t go that far & I will back him just because I’m in a good position with the two Irish fancies but yeah there’s absolutely no chance 5/1 would have any appeal if I was starting from scratch with the race. If he gets any shorter I might just lay appreciate it for some instead to cover my total outlay on the race depending what his price is on the morning

[Supermaster]

Sorry its 5lb isnt it. My apologies. Still, a decent enough difference to use as reason he's achieved more.

This provokes another question about ratings.
There was a very useful discussion about ratings early on in this thread but if ratings could be relied on 100% then couldn't the punters bankrupt all the bookmakers in a matter of days?
Has anyone ever worked out the profit/loss of betting according to the various ratings?

Which one(s) do you use? The highest ever achieved/highest this season/most recent completed race/RP estimate for the current race or other?

It was argued that First Flow couldn't win the Clarence House because he hadn't beaten much previously. First Flow didn't agree.

[Kevloaf]

This provokes another question about ratings.
There was a very useful discussion about ratings early on in this thread but if ratings could be relied on 100% then couldn't the punters bankrupt all the bookmakers in a matter of days?
Has anyone ever worked out the profit/loss of betting according to the various ratings?

Which one(s) do you use? The highest ever achieved/highest this season/most recent completed race/RP estimate for the current race or other?

It was argued that First Flow couldn't win the Clarence House because he hadn't beaten much previously. First Flow didn't agree.

The point was that the ratings reflect what horses have done, not what they will do.

Any horse can improve. Not seen anyone dispute that.

"if ratings could be relied on 100% then couldn't the punters bankrupt all the bookmakers in a matter of days?"
Right thread I suppose


What people have disputed is that Metier has shown more so far. You don't have to believe that's fact, and you could be wrong now and Metier still end up a better horse.



Loaded questions IMO.


Appreciate It, on the main ratings people use (OR, RPR, TF) has achieved more than Metier so far. That doesn't mean Metier can't do better. It doesn't mean they're fact. No-one is saying that.

You would need your own ratings and try and justify why Metier has shown more than Appreciate It so far.... and nobody could disprove them either.


Using First Flow as an example is fine, but how many times has the horse with superior form beforehand won too.... nobody uses ratings literally and exclusively do they? ... it's just a tool? Maybe some people do... probably has it's own angles.