Stupid Questions

[Atlantic Viking]

Thanks opatcho , makes quite a bit more sense now, interesting stuff!

[Kevloaf]

I've used the heat maps a lot over the last 12 months just to help confirm the pace of the race which indicate how slow or quick each sectional was (typically between each fence for jumps)

Ideally, from what I've read and as you'd expect, the quickest way to win a race is by running at a pace you can sustain all the way around. Near impossible for a horse to run even fractions, but generally what you want to see is 0,1,-1 all the way through the race. You see this more commonly for top class races, ones ran in the festival etc

Outside the top races, you tend see more races with no pace or with too much pace


Slow race, turning into a sprint
- Yellow -> Amber -> Dark Red
- 13, 10, 10, 2, 1, -5, -7, -15

Normally see this with small fields, where you dont really have a front runner setting the pace. Race is normally very tactical, and it pays to be at the front of the field

Taking one example from the second line, the race that was won by High Up In The Air was ran at a weak pace, and ended up being a sprint.
I've watched the first 20 seconds of the race, High Up In the Air jumped the first at the front, one horse fell at that, one drove really badly and another jumped it really badly. It was only a 5 horse, and 3 of them made bad errors at the first. The leader was clear from early on, and chilled through the initial stages before applying the pressure later on.

Strong pace early on, too strong, turned into a stamina test
- Dark Red -> Amber -> Yellow
- -13, -10, -10, 2, 1, 5, 7, 15

Deisa Aba's race went off at a decent pace, and they struggled to get home from the 2nd last and last.


Strong pace, even though the race
- Light amber, Light amber, Light amber
- -2, 0, 1, -2, 1, 1, 0, -1, 1, 1


The Arkle and Mares race back in March is a good example, we all knew the Arkle would be madness with Notepad, Cashback etc front running like nutters and you see this in the pace maps, a load of minus during the first half of the race, then a bunch of positives numbers. Put The Kettle On and Fakir to me are middle distance horses, both classy enough to keep up with the early pace of this arkle whilst being able to finish the race, the rest were no where to be seen because of the early pace

The Mares race had no early pace, was mentioned loads in commentary.... and this tee'd the race up to be more about speed than stamina. It suits Honeysuckle more (2 miler, 2 and a half miler) over Benie (2 and a half miler, 3 milers)

Cheltenham	H3	10-03-20	Honeysuckle				10	0	8	-1	-9	-8	-8	5
Cheltenham	C1	10-03-20	Put The Kettle On			-8	-2	-3	0	-3	2	4	1	6

Appreciate It's race was fairly even, same with A Wave Of Sea, and Honeysuckle. Top grade races tend to be ran at a decent, even pace.... same with competitive handicaps. This is what catches out horses who have a string of 1's next to them names from smaller, and weaker races at the start of the season - normally dominating and using their speed to win, but then get caught out when stepping into hot company in good races - they no longer have time early on to sort out their jumping, and tend to lack the overall pace and stamina to challenge.

Monkfish appears to set good pace through up until 3 out, then chilled a little, before taking the piss after the last and stormed up the hill

Visually (on the tele) you could see how Richard Johnson gave Native River a breather at Sandown, slowed him down around 4 out. You can see this on the heat map (7), then Dickie put the pressure on again (1, 1) before putting the race to bed after the last (-15)

I use these maps to help confirm and verify to a degree how strong/weak or tactical a race was, and seeing whether there are any comment trends.

A clear on I've noticed is Defi always appears to run in races with weak early pace, pretty much all of his chases have had weak pace - all apart from the Tingle Creek

Lost - first race, strong pace

Cheltenham

C1

18-11-18

Lalor

2

-1

0

-1

1

5

-2

-2

-1

0

Won - pretty much weak pace, fast finishes

Sandown

C2

02/02/2019

Defi Du Seuil

2

3

-2

-2

-1

3

0

-9

Cheltenham

C1

14-03-19

Defi Du Seuil

9

5

6

7

-1

-6

0

-13

-6

-18

Cheltenham

C2

17-11-19

Defi Du Seuil

2

4

3

0

2

3

2

2

-5

-21

Ascot

C3

18-01-20

Defi Du Seuil

2

9

8

6

1

3

-2

-12

-16

-15

Exeter

C2

07/12/2018

Defi Du Seuil

4

2

7

1

-1

-2

-1

-8

Anyway, I enjoy throwing in Graeme Norths analysis into the mix. Worth a follow folks, he must spend a lot of time and effort building these up
@jumpspacemaps

Hope that helps, and I don't pretend to be the expert on this, so happy to be corrected with any of the above :-)

Excellent post. Thanks for taking the time, hundreds of people will appreciate that.

[opatcho]

I was hoping for thousands tbh

[Kevloaf]

I was hoping for thousands tbh

1000's will see it and not read it....

100's will appreciate it


That's as good as it gets

[opatcho]

1000's will see it and not read it....

100's will appreciate it


That's as good as it gets

LOL - I'll take that ha haaaa

[Quevega]

LOL - I'll take that ha haaaa

I understood the pacemap with the ratings much more as I could relate to it.

But the one that's just got plus and minus numbers, what exactly does the number represent ?

[germanshepherd]

Would a win any race bet on a horse entered but balloted out be settled as a loser?

[Istabraq]

Would a win any race bet on a horse entered but balloted out be settled as a loser?

Good question, I'm guessing yes it'll be a loser...

[Kevloaf]

Would a win any race bet on a horse entered but balloted out be settled as a loser?

Good question.
That's almost certainly worth contacting a bookie to ask about though.

[Lobos]

Would a win any race bet on a horse entered but balloted out be settled as a loser?

If it wasn't, and you got your money back, then it would boost the advantages of TWAR betting even more. Can't see it though. If I'm wrong then I've thrown plenty of slips/money away in the past that were eligible for a refund

[Istabraq]

Good question.
That's almost certainly worth contacting a bookie to ask about though.

The argument would be the horse could have been qualified for multiple races so the fact he/she was balloted out of their chosen race is irrelevant....

[PresentingPercy]

The argument would be the horse could have been qualified for multiple races so the fact he/she was balloted out of their chosen race is irrelevant....

Agreed, its treated as a non runner

[germanshepherd]

Sky have said it would be void. Not sure about Hills policy.

Another question.

When do Paddy and Sky return NRNB money when not entered?

[Lobos]

Sky have said it would be void. Not sure about Hills policy.

Another question.

When do Paddy and Sky return NRNB money when not entered?

Void? As in funds returned ?

[germanshepherd]

Void? As in funds returned ?

Yeah. Do they give money back soon after entries or after the festival?