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Originally posted by Kevloaf
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Nope, I don’t -
Why is Willie Mullins 2/7 to win the 2020/2021 Irish Trainers Championship? He's over 600k ahead and has an unbelievable army of horses for Fairyhouse and Punchestown? I'd have thought the bookies had made a mistake only I discovered three different bookies are quoting 2-7 according to oddschecker - I haven't had a big bet yet as I'm afraid I'm missing something - anyone any thoughts?
I would have thought 1/10 would be closer to the correct odds.Comment
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Need some sort of filter that saves me from reading posts like this when i've had a snifter. Already laid out half my childrens inheritance on Viking Flagships enjoyable well reasoned posts.Originally posted by harchibald View PostComment
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Put down the hard stuff fellow Viking. I find a 6.5% IPA to be the ideal accompaniment to some Festival research.Originally posted by Atlantic Viking View Post
Your comment is very flattering, just don’t expect me to reimburse the kids if the selections go down the pan!Comment
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From the Triumph thread. My stupid question today is, how do you interpret pace maps?!Comment
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Pressure Drop in Tottenham making some joyous NEIPAs in that range at the moment. Pure sunshine in a canOriginally posted by Viking Flagship View PostComment
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Here's one - why are mares deemed to be stamina led?Comment
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I haven't managed to get to the brewery itself but they have a bar in Hackney which is a collab with Verdant and I could happily sit in there all day working my way through the board!Originally posted by robith View Post
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Back when things were normal I spent a couple of tremendously unproductive days in The Experiment!Originally posted by Viking Flagship View Post
I haven't managed to get to the brewery itself but they have a bar in Hackney which is a collab with Verdant and I could happily sit in there all day working my way through the board!Comment
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Just often see people say mares are better suited to stamina than speed generally- mare's hurdle being intermediate distance for exampleOriginally posted by Kevloaf View PostComment
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Surely it's just a breeding thing, to start off with anyway.Originally posted by robith View Post
Then it becomes evident on the race course as to an individual mares best trip.
I think Honeysuckle, Epatante, Annie Power and Dawn Run would have something to say about being better suited to a trip, having all won Champion Hurdles of one sort or another. Obviously Dawn Run also won a Gold Cup and Honeysuckle a Mares Hurdle, plus you'd have to say Annie Power would have won over the intermediate trip also, but I think it's more down to the individual horse rather than specifically just mares myself.Comment
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Oh right, I dunno then to be honest, I've never really heard it? Or not retained it. I can't help, I'm too stupidOriginally posted by robith View Post
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Originally posted by Atlantic Viking View Posthttps://twitter.com/jumpspacemaps/st...44416832770054
From the Triumph thread. My stupid question today is, how do you interpret pace maps?!
I've used the heat maps a lot over the last 12 months just to help confirm the pace of the race which indicate how slow or quick each sectional was (typically between each fence for jumps)
Ideally, from what I've read and as you'd expect, the quickest way to win a race is by running at a pace you can sustain all the way around. Near impossible for a horse to run even fractions, but generally what you want to see is 0,1,-1 all the way through the race. You see this more commonly for top class races, ones ran in the festival etc
Outside the top races, you tend see more races with no pace or with too much pace
Slow race, turning into a sprint
- Yellow -> Amber -> Dark Red
- 13, 10, 10, 2, 1, -5, -7, -15
Normally see this with small fields, where you dont really have a front runner setting the pace. Race is normally very tactical, and it pays to be at the front of the field
Taking one example from the second line, the race that was won by High Up In The Air was ran at a weak pace, and ended up being a sprint.
I've watched the first 20 seconds of the race, High Up In the Air jumped the first at the front, one horse fell at that, one drove really badly and another jumped it really badly. It was only a 5 horse, and 3 of them made bad errors at the first. The leader was clear from early on, and chilled through the initial stages before applying the pressure later on.
Strong pace early on, too strong, turned into a stamina test
- Dark Red -> Amber -> Yellow
- -13, -10, -10, 2, 1, 5, 7, 15
Deisa Aba's race went off at a decent pace, and they struggled to get home from the 2nd last and last.
Strong pace, even though the race
- Light amber, Light amber, Light amber
- -2, 0, 1, -2, 1, 1, 0, -1, 1, 1
The Arkle and Mares race back in March is a good example, we all knew the Arkle would be madness with Notepad, Cashback etc front running like nutters and you see this in the pace maps, a load of minus during the first half of the race, then a bunch of positives numbers. Put The Kettle On and Fakir to me are middle distance horses, both classy enough to keep up with the early pace of this arkle whilst being able to finish the race, the rest were no where to be seen because of the early pace
The Mares race had no early pace, was mentioned loads in commentary.... and this tee'd the race up to be more about speed than stamina. It suits Honeysuckle more (2 miler, 2 and a half miler) over Benie (2 and a half miler, 3 milers)
Cheltenham H3 10-03-20 Honeysuckle 10 0 8 -1 -9 -8 -8 5 Cheltenham C1 10-03-20 Put The Kettle On -8 -2 -3 0 -3 2 4 1 6
Appreciate It's race was fairly even, same with A Wave Of Sea, and Honeysuckle. Top grade races tend to be ran at a decent, even pace.... same with competitive handicaps. This is what catches out horses who have a string of 1's next to them names from smaller, and weaker races at the start of the season - normally dominating and using their speed to win, but then get caught out when stepping into hot company in good races - they no longer have time early on to sort out their jumping, and tend to lack the overall pace and stamina to challenge.
Monkfish appears to set good pace through up until 3 out, then chilled a little, before taking the piss after the last and stormed up the hill
Visually (on the tele) you could see how Richard Johnson gave Native River a breather at Sandown, slowed him down around 4 out. You can see this on the heat map (7), then Dickie put the pressure on again (1, 1) before putting the race to bed after the last (-15)
I use these maps to help confirm and verify to a degree how strong/weak or tactical a race was, and seeing whether there are any comment trends.
A clear on I've noticed is Defi always appears to run in races with weak early pace, pretty much all of his chases have had weak pace - all apart from the Tingle Creek
Lost - first race, strong paceWon - pretty much weak pace, fast finishesCheltenham C1 18-11-18 Lalor 2 -1 0 -1 1 5 -2 -2 -1 0 Sandown C2 02/02/2019 Defi Du Seuil 2 3 -2 -2 -1 3 0 -9 Cheltenham C1 14-03-19 Defi Du Seuil 9 5 6 7 -1 -6 0 -13 -6 -18 Cheltenham C2 17-11-19 Defi Du Seuil 2 4 3 0 2 3 2 2 -5 -21 Ascot C3 18-01-20 Defi Du Seuil 2 9 8 6 1 3 -2 -12 -16 -15 Anyway, I enjoy throwing in Graeme Norths analysis into the mix. Worth a follow folks, he must spend a lot of time and effort building these upExeter C2 07/12/2018 Defi Du Seuil 4 2 7 1 -1 -2 -1 -8
@jumpspacemaps
Hope that helps, and I don't pretend to be the expert on this, so happy to be corrected with any of the above :-)Comment
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