Stupid Questions

[Evesham Road]

How do folks on here approach staking? Differently, I'd imagine. Are there key principles? How many different 'levels' of bet or confidence do you use? How do you decide whether and when to increase stakes across the board? How big is a point in relation to a betting bank? ANd where do you actually 'keep' your betting bank?!

This is an area I currently do quite a bit of mental grappling with. I'm naturally cautious and risk-averse and from what I gather my standard bet is relatively tiny compared to most on here.But I am carefully considering increasing. I normally double stakes for Cheltenham, for whatever reason, and I'm comfortable with that. I'm also happier staking more in big races where I feel like I can be more sure that horses will run true to form versus if I think I might have spotted something overpriced but know less about in a class 3 handicap on a Wednesday. That makes sense to me but I realise it's a personal view and share it as an example rather than suggesting it's 'correct'. I have had modest success (about 1400pts return on 4000pts staked for ~35% ROI) over a period of a few years both at the Festival and more widely, and as I say am toying with increasing (I think doubling) my standard bet. I guess there's no right or wrong answer, you just have to choose if and when it feels right for you, but I would appreciate any views or examples people would be willing to share.

[Kevloaf]

Good question...

I use 1 to 10 points. I have (very rare) exceptions where I'll 'wallop' something, but these are historically things I am certain about (Frankel at 1/20) , or where I know I've got absolutely stupid value (Galvin at 20/1 when I know he'll get cut to single figures in minutes).

Agree regarding Cheltenham being a valid place to "double" stakes.... personally this year I have had loads more 2 pt bets than 1 pt, and my 0.5 bets are almost non existant, which means technically I've "doubled my stake" and looking at my positions I'm happy with that...but I bet lots of horses and make books and lock in profit more than the average punter would so it's not a direct comparison.

Your ROI is fantastic, so I'd suggest doubling your stake is well worth the risk. IF you can prove profitable, increasing stake is normal I feel.


The use of a betting bank is the next step for me.... but I feel I need 6 figures for that as captial to start with and haven't got that at 33 years olds unfortunately.

[Spectre]

Yes a scale fo 1 to 10 for me too. 1 point is my default positon and almost all my bets are this, and 10 points is extremely rare. Anything more than 1 point is where I have siginificant confidence, or I'm adjusting my stake for a specific return.

Similar to Kev, I lay a lot of my selections on the exchange, so I perhaps don't offer the best example to consider. I'd imagine many who just 'back' use a similar scale but vary the size of their bets much more than I do.

I always find the whole staking debate interesting, but I do prefer to keep it simple. There are too many other moving parts to my approach for me to want to consider doing anything different, and it alos suits my mentality (also simple ), but I'd freely concede it's an area that I could potentially improve on, and I'd take any criticism that came my way.

[Evesham Road]

Thanks both for your thoughts.

I think where I've come out is to continue with current stakes for the remainder of this season, allow myself my usual loosening of the purse-strings for the Festival and then make a decision on 21-22 from there, though I'll be likely to double everything (so standard Festival bet would become 4pts).

My recent Festival record (i.e. 'since records began') is as follows:

	Outlay (pts)	Return (pts)	ROI (%)
2017	212	35	17
2018	307	135	44
2019	168	277	165
2020	169	-90	-53
Total	856	357	42

Before records began I was largely of the mindset that if I paid for my usual one day a year at the course and my food/ drink for the week then the good time had was my profit. 2019 changed my view on that, though to be transparent my success there was really down to just a few horses (Defi Du Seuil, Frodon, Paisley Park and Siruh Du Lac) on the Thursday - my best ever day at the races. Obviously then, back down with a bit of a bump last year where I simply didn't get much right! But I've always tried to take the approach that there'll be runs of losses amongst the wins and that as long as I only risk what I can afford to lose then that's OK. 2018 outlay was materially higher because I had more access to offers then than since and was able to back and lay a bit more in order to lock in profits.

So far this year I have a 105 point outlay (more than normal by this point). I think what I'd like to look to achieve is a more steady return; clearly 2019 I was 'lucky' and something more consistent over a longer period, allied with the planned increase in stakes will get me to a good place.

I do hope this post comes across as intended, that is reflective rather than anything boastful or similarly unfavourable. I asked a question and value peoples' time in responding so liked to acknowledge that and follow-up in terms of the thought process I am going through. Perhaps it will be useful to others who are at some point in a similar situation or with a similar quandry. But if it is of the wrong tone I will happily remove it.

[Kautostar]

Thanks both for your thoughts.

I think where I've come out is to continue with current stakes for the remainder of this season, allow myself my usual loosening of the purse-strings for the Festival and then make a decision on 21-22 from there, though I'll be likely to double everything (so standard Festival bet would become 4pts).

My recent Festival record (i.e. 'since records began') is as follows:

	Outlay (pts)	Return (pts)	ROI (%)
2017	212	35	17
2018	307	135	44
2019	168	277	165
2020	169	-90	-53
Total	856	357	42

Before records began I was largely of the mindset that if I paid for my usual one day a year at the course and my food/ drink for the week then the good time had was my profit. 2019 changed my view on that, though to be transparent my success there was really down to just a few horses (Defi Du Seuil, Frodon, Paisley Park and Siruh Du Lac) on the Thursday - my best ever day at the races. Obviously then, back down with a bit of a bump last year where I simply didn't get much right! But I've always tried to take the approach that there'll be runs of losses amongst the wins and that as long as I only risk what I can afford to lose then that's OK. 2018 outlay was materially higher because I had more access to offers then than since and was able to back and lay a bit more in order to lock in profits.

So far this year I have a 105 point outlay (more than normal by this point). I think what I'd like to look to achieve is a more steady return; clearly 2019 I was 'lucky' and something more consistent over a longer period, allied with the planned increase in stakes will get me to a good place.

I do hope this post comes across as intended, that is reflective rather than anything boastful or similarly unfavourable. I asked a question and value peoples' time in responding so liked to acknowledge that and follow-up in terms of the thought process I am going through. Perhaps it will be useful to others who are at some point in a similar situation or with a similar quandry. But if it is of the wrong tone I will happily remove it.

Nothing wrong with your posts at all. It’s an area I find interesting as we all develop and look to improve

[Kevloaf]

Thanks both for your thoughts.

I think where I've come out is to continue with current stakes for the remainder of this season, allow myself my usual loosening of the purse-strings for the Festival and then make a decision on 21-22 from there, though I'll be likely to double everything (so standard Festival bet would become 4pts).

My recent Festival record (i.e. 'since records began') is as follows:

	Outlay (pts)	Return (pts)	ROI (%)
2017	212	35	17
2018	307	135	44
2019	168	277	165
2020	169	-90	-53
Total	856	357	42

Before records began I was largely of the mindset that if I paid for my usual one day a year at the course and my food/ drink for the week then the good time had was my profit. 2019 changed my view on that, though to be transparent my success there was really down to just a few horses (Defi Du Seuil, Frodon, Paisley Park and Siruh Du Lac) on the Thursday - my best ever day at the races. Obviously then, back down with a bit of a bump last year where I simply didn't get much right! But I've always tried to take the approach that there'll be runs of losses amongst the wins and that as long as I only risk what I can afford to lose then that's OK. 2018 outlay was materially higher because I had more access to offers then than since and was able to back and lay a bit more in order to lock in profits.

So far this year I have a 105 point outlay (more than normal by this point). I think what I'd like to look to achieve is a more steady return; clearly 2019 I was 'lucky' and something more consistent over a longer period, allied with the planned increase in stakes will get me to a good place.

I do hope this post comes across as intended, that is reflective rather than anything boastful or similarly unfavourable. I asked a question and value peoples' time in responding so liked to acknowledge that and follow-up in terms of the thought process I am going through. Perhaps it will be useful to others who are at some point in a similar situation or with a similar quandry. But if it is of the wrong tone I will happily remove it.

Just trying to find where this has been discussed before sas it's an interesting topic.... nothing wrong with the post, I refer to this one often enough #3 .... and went through a similar thing as you can probably see from the change in total stakes.

Essentially this year although recorded the same (as 1 pt etc) I've just had loads and loads more 2 pts.


How you started is similar to me, where I just wanted to break even, then I'd set aside a pot that I didn't mind losing, and then when I started to focus on ante post realised with some luck you could have a great year (essentially the more favs win the better)...



Can't find where it's been mentioned before, but will be a talking point over the summer I'd have thought as I might change to value of 1 pt to 2 pts..... if this year goes as planned!

[Native River]

Anyone know why there's been so many Jumpers Bumpers days this season, Im assuming it was a conscious decision but I've noticed about 5 or 6 of them already this season even when there have been no abandonments. Before I have only ever recalled them as replacement for lost fixtures?

[Quevega]

Anyone know why there's been so many Jumpers Bumpers days this season, Im assuming it was a conscious decision but I've noticed about 5 or 6 of them already this season even when there have been no abandonments. Before I have only ever recalled them as replacement for lost fixtures?

There has been abandonments though.

[opatcho]

Every year, I find myself going into the festival having NO BLOODY IDEA of who is running in the bumper
My approach is basic, look for something that appears to have been saved for the festival - having 1-2 races earlier on in the season and then put away for this. Tbh, alot of horses end up hitting this criteria and I end up losing anyway

Do anyone have a steer on picking out bumper winners?

[Lobos]

Every year, I find myself going into the festival having NO BLOODY IDEA of who is running in the bumper
My approach is basic, look for something that appears to have been saved for the festival - having 1-2 races earlier on in the season and then put away for this. Tbh, alot of horses end up hitting this criteria and I end up losing anyway

Do anyone have a steer on picking out bumper winners?

Yeah, back all of Mullins

[opatcho]

Yeah, back all of Mullins

Had 1/4 on someone replying back with that, I'm now have a 0.5pt rollup with EA

[opatcho]

EVS someone posting a link to Gault stats

[Lobos]

Had 1/4 on someone replying back with that, I'm now have a 0.5pt rollup with EA

But does it not make sense? If you'd backed all his in every Festival Bumper race I reckon you'd be close to a profit ??

[opatcho]

But does it not make sense? If you'd backed all his in every Festival Bumper race I reckon you'd be close to a profit ??

It does make sense, but was hoping for.... oh never mind lol
Mullins it is :-)

[Lobos]

It does make sense, but was hoping for.... oh never mind lol
Mullins it is :-)

My fancy of his lot would be Ramilies by the way. Entered at the DRF. Win that and he goes 2nd fav. Lose and he doesn't.....