The Favourites Bin

[kinloch brae]

I'll have a go at dismantling this

Being 'soundly beaten in 3 consecutive festivals' is not the stick you want to use to beat potential Ryanair winners. There have only been 16 runnings of the race and Our Vic, Fondmort and Thisthatandtother were all 0/3 at Cheltenham before winning the Ryanair. Frodon, Balko Des Flos and Dynaste were all 0/2 Cheltenham, before winning the Ryanair. Festival experience is a massive plus, and IMO your point knocking his past runs at Cheltenham hold less weight off the back of that Gold Cup performance. He travelled sweetly into the race before not fully seeing out the trip (hence why I think he will come here).

That Gold Cup run was really good. Barring a blip at Gowren in the last year he's beaten Secret Investor (159) 14L, finished 3L behind Min (171) in the John Durkan, beaten Footpad (165) by 14L giving him 5lbs, then finished 7L behind ABP in the Gold Cup, with the three horses chasing him home all rated 170+. Real Steel is bang there on ratings and IMO it's obvious he needed his seasonal reappearance and lost out to a race fit rival at Ascot - to me he travelled well then just got tired.

Reel Steel is 100% not a horse that's just being mentioned for the sake of it (at least not by me ) and firmly deserves to be part of the conversation IMO. If I was given a free 1pt bet for the Ryanair right now it would go on RS @ 20/1 vs IA @ 6/1 every day of the week for the reasons stated.

The problem is that the Gold Cup this year was a farce. They have dawdled. That's the only reason that Real Steel was involved. The horses to mark up are Santini and Delta Work, but other than that the best thing you can do is to put a line through the race.

Real Steel has had chances to show that he might be a Grade 1 horse, but he has consistently pegged himself at Grade 2 level.

If you are looking for a very big price on a proper Grade 1 horse it is Delta Work in the Gold Cup.

[kinloch brae]

Chacun Pour Soi is for me the easiest favourite to avoid at this stage. That by no way means he can't win.

Win at the weekend did nothing more than confirm he is well and can jump a fence. Nothing else in the race would be challenging in a QMCC even before the last fence mishap.

Politologue equally beat sub-championship standard horses but I think his current vein of form and Cheltenham experience will see him right up there come March. A fit and well Altior could equally no be dismissed lightly.

Far too short based on what we have seen so far and better value elsewhere.

After the run on the Sunday, and the crazy price shortening, I would like to add Chacun Pour Soi to my list. He couldn't have been much more unimpressive in essentially beating nothing.

Even his supposed best form you can pick holes in. He was impressive as a novice, but since then all he has done is beat Min, and what has that horse done over two miles recently? Not very much.

[charlie]

The problem is that the Gold Cup this year was a farce. They have dawdled. That's the only reason that Real Steel was involved. The horses to mark up are Santini and Delta Work, but other than that the best thing you can do is to put a line through the race.

Real Steel has had chances to show that he might be a Grade 1 horse, but he has consistently pegged himself at Grade 2 level.

If you are looking for a very big price on a proper Grade 1 horse it is Delta Work in the Gold Cup.

We definitely agree on DW - arguably one of the most overpriced horses of the week IMO (great EW acca prospect).

Proven Grade 1 horses like Min and Samcro are shorter in price and I am trying to find value. Quite a few horses unproven at the top table (Eg. Frodon) have won the Ryanair in recent years, so I think it pays ante-post to look at the horses knocking on the G1 door that are bigger prices. RS may have only proven himself at Grade 2 level at the moment (same as the current fav in the market), but I don't believe he's a million miles away. He was 3L behind Min in a John Durkan for example - that's not huge amounts of ground to make up, and there's every chance PN can find some improvement.

Anyway, he's not a big fancy of mine and at the 20/1 price range I'd sooner take DDS over RS, just responding to OP that RS is being mentioned just for the sake of it when I don't think that's true

[Middle_Of_March]

I would like to add Chacun Pour Soi to my list. He couldn't have been much more unimpressive in essentially beating nothing.

Sorry but what? You’ve lost me. CPS won on the bridle Sunday. Even if the two in behind stayed up, he was still 5 lengths clear and hard held at the time. You’re acting as if he was ridden and whipped to win by a shortening neck.

[kinloch brae]

Sorry but what? You’ve lost me. CPS won on the bridle Sunday. Even if the two in behind stayed up, he was still 5 lengths clear and hard held at the time. You’re acting as if he was ridden and whipped to win by a shortening neck.

He didn't travel on the bridle through the race and his jumping wasn't that great. He was actually shaken up to get on terms with a 100/1 shot. That's what actually happened.

[Middle_Of_March]

He didn't travel on the bridle through the race and his jumping wasn't that great. He was actually shaken up to get on terms with a 100/1 shot. That's what actually happened.

You don’t rate the horse so are choosing to see something that’s not there.

’Couldnt be less unimpressive’ is just stupidly over the top. It’s a nonsense.

[charlie]

He didn't travel on the bridle through the race and his jumping wasn't that great. He was actually shaken up to get on terms with a 100/1 shot. That's what actually happened.

Horses have a tough time impressing you first time up don't they KB!

Joking aside though, this is exactly why I started the thread. CPS is 5/2 which is short based on what he's achieved, and we have to try and find holes which is what you are doing.

I hope I'm not being hypocritical saying this having started the thread saying split hairs, but personally, I think you are being very tough on him - he was near on foot perfect over the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 11th and 12th, in a fraction too close to the 4th and 7th (I'm splitting hairs on 7th) but corrected himself tidily, but was then untidy at the 9th and 10th.

Were I a backer I'd be fairly enthused with his jumping, but it's a good debate and worthy of discussing.

[charlie]

After the run on the Sunday, and the crazy price shortening, I would like to add Chacun Pour Soi to my list. He couldn't have been much more unimpressive in essentially beating nothing.

I've just watched the race back a few times to analyse the jumping KB - do you really feel this way? Thats really strong language to use and I don't want to start calling it 'wrong' because that's not in the intended spirit of the thread (as per my very diplomatic response a few mins ago re jumping ), but do you really think CPS 'couldn't have been much more unimpressive'?

[kinloch brae]

You don’t rate the horse so are choosing to see something that’s not there.

’Couldnt be less unimpressive’ is just stupidly over the top. It’s a nonsense.

I presume you have backed the horse, so you are going all out to be picky over words. The comments were in the context of what he had to beat which was a terrible jumper and a couple of 100/1 shots.

Okay you might not approve of my choice of words, but you are actually the one who is trying to see something that wasn't there. So you end up using words like 'stupid' and 'nonsense' to try and make yourself feel better and in some way superior. It is shame you couldn't just disagree.

[FinalFurlong91]

He improved a tonne for the run last year

Would expect willie left plenty to work on again

[BigChaang]

He improved a tonne for the run last year

Would expect willie left plenty to work on again

Pretty sure that's exactly what was said after the race - R.T.V .

[charlie]

This is actually turning out to be quite a useful thread as the favourite bashing isn't taking over main threads, its just condensed in this one

[Faugheen_Machine]

CPS is definitely splitting opinion. I thought he was nothing more than OK. The price cuts afterwards were OTT and didn't warrant being cut from 9/2 to 3/1, imo.

Game of opinions innit!

[FinalFurlong91]

CPS is definitely splitting opinion. I thought he was nothing more than OK. The price cuts afterwards were OTT and didn't warrant being cut from 9/2 to 3/1, imo.

Game of opinions innit!

He was 7/2 before the race best price I had a look on oddschecker

Bookies barely moved him

[BigChaang]

CPS is definitely splitting opinion. I thought he was nothing more than OK. The price cuts afterwards were OTT and didn't warrant being cut from 9/2 to 3/1, imo.

Game of opinions innit!

Definitely think he was too short to start with , annoying that some of the bookies cut them before the race has taken place .
Can't remember which horse was cut saturday morning , and it was a N/R anyway !! - double