The Favourites Bin

[charlie]

Imperial Aura. In what world is he shorter than a 7 time Grade 1 winner, who’s the defending champion and being aimed at the race? Absolutely mental!

I agree MOM. Imperial Aura is just one of those horses that fails to excite me, and the price is definitely too short to excite me. RS & DDS are over priced in the Ryanair market IMO.

[Bigfish]

I don't fancy these favs - Shishkin , Thyme Hill , Imperial Aura , Epatante, Galvin , Al Boum Photo, Monkfish ,Appreciate It, and Zanahiyr. I've put them in multi fold bets and exotics just incase I'm wrong.

[charlie]

I don't fancy these favs - Shishkin , Thyme Hill , Imperial Aura , Epatante, Galvin , Al Boum Photo, Monkfish ,Appreciate It, and Zanahiyr. I've put them in multi fold bets and exotics just incase I'm wrong.

Can you expand a little bit more as to why BigFish?

[BookieBasher]

I don't fancy these favs - Shishkin , Thyme Hill , Imperial Aura , Epatante, Galvin , Al Boum Photo, Monkfish ,Appreciate It, and Zanahiyr. I've put them in multi fold bets and exotics just incase I'm wrong.

Would love to know what you do fancy then???

[Bigfish]

That would take far too long to do. Im busy studying form

[Lobos]

I don't fancy these favs - Shishkin , Thyme Hill , Imperial Aura , Epatante, Galvin , Al Boum Photo, Monkfish ,Appreciate It, and Zanahiyr. I've put them in multi fold bets and exotics just incase I'm wrong.

I smell a bookie

[BookieBasher]

That would take far too long to do. Im busy studying form

Well I can tell you that the form of all the horses you’ve mentioned is a 1

[Bigfish]

Allmankind,Unexcepted
Paisley Park, Flooring Porter
Real Steel , Clan Des Obeaux
Sharjah ,Saldier
Five 'Clock , Court Maid
Champ , Cyrname
Asterion Forlonge , Easywork
Bob Olinger, Hardmansgame
Quixilios

[charlie]

That would take far too long to do. Im busy studying form

Listing favourites you don't fancy and then not explaining why (even briefly) contributes the sum total of zero to this thread.

[RufusFlynn]

Chacun Pour Soi is for me the easiest favourite to avoid at this stage. That by no way means he can't win.

Win at the weekend did nothing more than confirm he is well and can jump a fence. Nothing else in the race would be challenging in a QMCC even before the last fence mishap.

Politologue equally beat sub-championship standard horses but I think his current vein of form and Cheltenham experience will see him right up there come March. A fit and well Altior could equally no be dismissed lightly.

Far too short based on what we have seen so far and better value elsewhere.

[charlie]

I am going to add Imperial Aura for the Ryanair as I think 6/1 is too short based on what he's actually achieved, and the competition in March has the potential to be tasty (eg. Min, DDS, Cyrname), so for me his price is too short.

[Jorvik]

Allmankind,Unexcepted
Paisley Park, Flooring Porter
Real Steel , Clan Des Obeaux
Sharjah ,Saldier
Five 'Clock , Court Maid
Champ , Cyrname
Asterion Forlonge , Easywork
Bob Olinger, Hardmansgame
Quixilios

Need to hear more about some of these! I love when people go against the grain (when they can put a good case up alongside it), but good few on the face of it seem to picks to be different for the sake of it. Reel Steel sticks out as such, soundly beaten in 3 consecutive festivals, hardly gave Imperial Aura much to think about at Ascot and already beaten by Min over the Ryanair distance without too much fuss. Not knocking you, just be interested to hear your reasoning.

[Middle_Of_March]

Allmankind,Unexcepted
Paisley Park, Flooring Porter
Real Steel , Clan Des Obeaux
Sharjah ,Saldier
Five 'Clock , Court Maid
Champ , Cyrname
Asterion Forlonge , Easywork
Bob Olinger, Hardmansgame
Quixilios

Asterion Forlonge is probably unlikely to even turn up.

[charlie]

Need to hear more about some of these! I love when people go against the grain (when they can put a good case up alongside it), but good few on the face of it seem to picks to be different for the sake of it. Reel Steel sticks out as such, soundly beaten in 3 consecutive festivals, hardly gave Imperial Aura much to think about at Ascot and already beaten by Min over the Ryanair distance without too much fuss. Not knocking you, just be interested to hear your reasoning.

I'll have a go at dismantling this

Being 'soundly beaten in 3 consecutive festivals' is not the stick you want to use to beat potential Ryanair winners. There have only been 16 runnings of the race and Our Vic, Fondmort and Thisthatandtother were all 0/3 at Cheltenham before winning the Ryanair. Frodon, Balko Des Flos and Dynaste were all 0/2 Cheltenham, before winning the Ryanair. Festival experience is a massive plus, and IMO your point knocking his past runs at Cheltenham hold less weight off the back of that Gold Cup performance. He travelled sweetly into the race before not fully seeing out the trip (hence why I think he will come here).

That Gold Cup run was really good. Barring a blip at Gowren in the last year he's beaten Secret Investor (159) 14L, finished 3L behind Min (171) in the John Durkan, beaten Footpad (165) by 14L giving him 5lbs, then finished 7L behind ABP in the Gold Cup, with the three horses chasing him home all rated 170+. Real Steel is bang there on ratings and IMO it's obvious he needed his seasonal reappearance and lost out to a race fit rival at Ascot - to me he travelled well then just got tired.

Reel Steel is 100% not a horse that's just being mentioned for the sake of it (at least not by me ) and firmly deserves to be part of the conversation IMO. If I was given a free 1pt bet for the Ryanair right now it would go on RS @ 20/1 vs IA @ 6/1 every day of the week for the reasons stated.

[BigChaang]

You make a good case there Charlie , I've got Real Steel , as well as a couple of others for this too.
The 0/ 3 , 0/ 2 stat is an interesting one .
Like you , I thought he ran well in the G.C , not quite getting home ., so the shorter trip could be the answer.