The Favourites Bin

[Imperial Commander]

I think the favourite with a price out of proportion to what would be 'normal' for this time of year (if there is such a thing) is Sir Gerhard. The 4/1 will be put to a significant earlyish test if he does run against Brooklynn Glory but at the moment he's being backed as if he is already the second coming and there will be lots of cards for Willie and others to play in the Bumper nearer to March.

[kinloch brae]

All horses who are (considerably) more hype than substance and where the final field is relatively unknown. Absolutely no surprise they are all trained by G Elliott or W Mullins.

Ballyadam/Appreciate It

Ballyadam won a real poor Royal Bond by distance that equates to his better track position in a slowly run race. There is nothing on the track to justify anything close to a single figure which is purely down to the trainer/owner combination. The jury is very much out on the value of the Champion Bumper. At the moment the only thing holding it up is a 'flat horse' who improved for better ground. Appreciate It won one of the worst novice hurdles I have seen all season. He has plenty to prove. I only leave Ferny Hollow out because he looked more straightforward on his hurdling debut and may have beaten a decent horse, albeit one who should improve going left handed.

Galvin

The National Hunt Chase has literally been a one horse book. The trainer pinpointed the race and he has been backed as if he is the only runner. There is a stamina doubt and In reality it is very difficult to know who the opposition will be until much closer to the race.

Sir Gerhard

See Ballyadam, it's a theme. Another race where any number of decent horses might emerge in the next few months. Despite being three times the price the second favourite has almost certainly beaten better opposition just as easily.

Zanahiyr

He is clear favourite on the basis of beating two horses. How does that add up? Again the final field is relatively unknown.

Billaway

Well beaten last year and unless it is very soft I don't see any reason why last year's winner shouldn't again beat him comfortably.

I have stuck to those who are single figures.

[dannycraigpirates]

I guess in terms of Billaway it’s an age thing / positive vibes from the camp last year.

Definitely agree about Zenahiyr though - a week ago Quilixios was the stable number 1 and still could very well be

[Leman14]

Lots of value to be had then KB

[kinloch brae]

Lots of value to be had then KB

I wish.

I have 2 in the Supreme and Triumph, 1 in the Ballymore, Albert Bartlett, Bumper, National Hunt Chase and Foxhunters. Only one is a complete write-off at this stage so happy enough with those numbers, but as ever the biggest problem is relying on the horses ending up in the 'right' races.

[jack1092]

All horses who are (considerably) more hype than substance and where the final field is relatively unknown. Absolutely no surprise they are all trained by G Elliott or W Mullins.

Ballyadam/Appreciate It

Ballyadam won a real poor Royal Bond by distance that equates to his better track position in a slowly run race. There is nothing on the track to justify anything close to a single figure which is purely down to the trainer/owner combination. The jury is very much out on the value of the Champion Bumper. At the moment the only thing holding it up is a 'flat horse' who improved for better ground. Appreciate It won one of the worst novice hurdles I have seen all season. He has plenty to prove. I only leave Ferny Hollow out because he looked more straightforward on his hurdling debut and may have beaten a decent horse, albeit one who should improve going left handed.

Galvin

The National Hunt Chase has literally been a one horse book. The trainer pinpointed the race and he has been backed as if he is the only runner. There is a stamina doubt and In reality it is very difficult to know who the opposition will be until much closer to the race.

Sir Gerhard

See Ballyadam, it's a theme. Another race where any number of decent horses might emerge in the next few months. Despite being three times the price the second favourite has almost certainly beaten better opposition just as easily.

Zanahiyr

He is clear favourite on the basis of beating two horses. How does that add up? Again the final field is relatively unknown.

Billaway

Well beaten last year and unless it is very soft I don't see any reason why last year's winner shouldn't again beat him comfortably.

I have stuck to those who are single figures.

Have to say i agree with pretty all of this.

[charlie]

All horses who are (considerably) more hype than substance and where the final field is relatively unknown. Absolutely no surprise they are all trained by G Elliott or W Mullins.

Ballyadam/Appreciate It

Ballyadam won a real poor Royal Bond by distance that equates to his better track position in a slowly run race. There is nothing on the track to justify anything close to a single figure which is purely down to the trainer/owner combination. The jury is very much out on the value of the Champion Bumper. At the moment the only thing holding it up is a 'flat horse' who improved for better ground. Appreciate It won one of the worst novice hurdles I have seen all season. He has plenty to prove. I only leave Ferny Hollow out because he looked more straightforward on his hurdling debut and may have beaten a decent horse, albeit one who should improve going left handed.

Galvin

The National Hunt Chase has literally been a one horse book. The trainer pinpointed the race and he has been backed as if he is the only runner. There is a stamina doubt and In reality it is very difficult to know who the opposition will be until much closer to the race.

Sir Gerhard

See Ballyadam, it's a theme. Another race where any number of decent horses might emerge in the next few months. Despite being three times the price the second favourite has almost certainly beaten better opposition just as easily.

Zanahiyr

He is clear favourite on the basis of beating two horses. How does that add up? Again the final field is relatively unknown.

Billaway

Well beaten last year and unless it is very soft I don't see any reason why last year's winner shouldn't again beat him comfortably.

I have stuck to those who are single figures.

Very fair cases on all of them. I hope you are wrong, but I can't knock the reasoning

[Outlaw]

KB fair points but don't agree with Billaway, younger than most and on the up,one of Patrick's poorer rides last year for me(Bachasson takes that mantle) he wouldn't of won thou with how the impressive the winner was granted.The price isn't brilliant but equally not really poor only vs ICTP probably.

Also touching on Galvin, the stamina doubt the breeding read well on that front & lto at chelt he looked to put to bed any easy stamina queries I thought. If it was an absolute bog come the day then ?? Might surface but any decent ground I wouldn't of thought would be an issue personally.

[Joeski29]

Plenty have mentioned Zanahiyr but I'm going to add him again, listened to the FFP podcast and Gordon Elliott did mention that this horse and Quilixious are the two who he expects to be taking higher order but don't see much of a reason for the price disparity between the two.

He mentioned on the podcast that both were entered in the race which Zanahiyr won but Quilixious would have had to have run under a penalty which might have been why he didn't run in the race.

I wasn't massively impressed with Ballyadams jumping on the same day but I suppose that will improve and Elliott seemed really positive about him.

[nortonscoin200]

Based on his run at Cheltenham in March I wouldn't want to be backing Billaway at 7-1. He didn't look anywhere near good enough to me.

I also wouldn't want to be backing Easysland at 9-4 after his recent run at Cheltenham where he looked a shadow of the horse we saw last season. I know he was giving away loads of weight but I would not be interested right now.

But the one I fear for most of all is Shishkin even though - along with everyone else - I was bowled over by his chase debut at Kempton.

For many years one of my basic rules of punting has been: "Take Kempton form with a pinch of salt when it comes to the Festival because it means next to nothing."

The two courses are like chalk and cheese.

Last year I broke my own rule and paid the penalty by backing Solo for the Triumph on the basis of his breathtaking run at Kempton.

I know Shishkin has way more form in the bag than Solo and has already proved himself at Cheltenham.

Henderson says he's going to continue down the Altior route with Shishkin and run him in the Wayward Lad back at Kempton over Christmas.

I know it didn't stop Altior from winning the Arkle but sending Shiskin round a right-handed flat track again won't improve his chances at the Festival in my book.

Fortunately, Shishkin will probably have another prep in the Game Spirit at Newbury where we may learn more - if there are enough horses to give him a proper race.

But bearing in mind how Shiskin struggled to go the pace down the back straight in the Supreme, I don't think it'll help him if Felix Desjy makes it an end-to-end gallop in the Arkle.

Some of those leaps at Kempton were spectacular but the undulations and twists and turns at Cheltenham are a whole new ball game.

If Shishkin wins it'll be hats off to a new two-time Festival hero and I'll be celebrating too - but it's far from a formality imo.

[charlie]

But the one I fear for most of all is Shishkin even though

I didn't quote your whole post because its quite long, but case well made and some interesting angles to consider.

[Outlaw]

Based on his run at Cheltenham in March I wouldn't want to be backing Billaway at 7-1. He didn't look anywhere near good enough to me.

I also wouldn't want to be backing Easysland at 9-4 after his recent run at Cheltenham where he looked a shadow of the horse we saw last season. I know he was giving away loads of weight but I would not be interested right now.

I know it must look like i am Billaway #1 fan now(i'm really not) but could you elaborate on why you think he looked nowhere near good enough? I thought he travelled better than anything when coming to the turn that day, best horse won i'm not disputing that but struggle to see the anywhere near good enough angle?

[Faugheen_Machine]

I know it didn't stop Altior from winning the Arkle but sending Shiskin round a right-handed flat track again won't improve his chances at the Festival in my book.

.

It didn't hinder Sprinter Sacre either.

The Kempton thing surely can't apply to horse that have already shown their class at Cheltenham, and that they are likely to be head and shoulders above the opposition. I can understand putting an asterisk against Kempton form in other circumstances, given the differences in track layouts.

[kinloch brae]

Unfortunately, there is no track which comes close to copying Cheltenham and as Epatante showed even when they 'bomb' they can step up markedly in class and still come back and win. It will take me a long time to get over that bet. I think I put her up as the meeting banker that year.

[FinalFurlong91]

I feel like the kempton thing applies more to staying chasers

The test of the king George and gold cup are very very different