The Favourites Bin

[Geordieboy83]

For me has CPS, just based on the fact has only had such little time on the track. Also yes won well in Ireland, but we all know Cheltenham hill can be race changer.

[charlie]

Not much to say Charlie other than your racing knowledge is a lot better than your ability to count to two

Hahahahaaha

[Big Bucks]

I am going to add a bit to this later as in a rush to a meeting...

But one thing I will say yes I understand the frustration and can say oh the bookies are crooks putting that up at that price, but dont be stubborn, I have and am sure many others have in the past, missed the boat on a horse and said aww well let's look for something at a bigger price. This can work if use it right, but at the end of the day if you think horse A (the fav) is the best horse in the race and most likely winner, is it smart to go fishing for a bigger price if the winner is staring you right in the face? If its too short to back now as ante post then fair enough. But if you think its the best horse dont let the price put you off imo.

If you do oppose it and dont think will win then yes. Tske it on!

[charlie]

I agree. Goshen was around the 14/1-12/1 mark after two runs, and was winning by 34 & 23 lengths. Zanahiyr has yet to actually beat anything of note, a bit like Goshen at the time, so he should be at least around the same sort of price. Quilixios has done no more or less than Zanahiyr really and is still 12/1.

Very good points COD

[FinalFurlong91]

Personally dont like Galvin at the prices

he doesn't race like the usual dour grinder that wins the NHC, I think hes a bit good to really see out that trip just like OK corral and Carefully selected I can see him being a bit too free in the early stages and paying for it at the end.

Also right now we have absolutely no idea what will line up against him, Mullins has loads of talented staying chasers that could potentially run

fair enough anyone who got the bigger prices just the current price isn't something I'd consider taking at all

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'll be throwing Epatante in the bin. Not quite yet as she'll go even shorter when she wins the Christmas Hurdle but she's one I'm keen to take on.

[Istabraq]

I'll be throwing Epatante in the bin. Not quite yet as she'll go even shorter when she wins the Christmas Hurdle but she's one I'm keen to take on.

Yes she’s very short FM but who do you see as credible alternatives ?
I’m still pinning alot of my ante post interest on Saldier but I’m wondering who else may threaten to dethrone her...

[Can't Catch Me]

I'm in a minority on this one, but I think Shishkin is a very poor price. There is just nothing to justify him being 6/4 after ONE novice run where he has essentially beaten nothing. I still think he will benefit from a step up in trip.

He is shorter than Epatante who is the reigning champ in the Champion Hurdle and being talked about in a similar vein to Envoi Allen. He just isn't comparable with that horse yet for me. There are plenty of potentially exciting 2m chasers in this division yet to stake a real claim.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yes she’s very short FM but who do you see as credible alternatives ?
I’m still pinning alot of my ante post interest on Saldier but I’m wondering who else may threaten to dethrone her...

I think Saint Roi, Saldier and Abacadabras. She won't face any of these until the big day so I'm happy for her to keep shortening.

It would be great if Goshen ran and set a good pace as I'd like to see Aba and Saint Roi stalking Epatante and take her on at the last.

[archie]

I couldn't back him yet but a very good judge in another place reckons that Zanahiyr put up a stellar performance on Sunday.

Until NRNB comes in, most of the favourites would be off my radar in singles but there's no point in lashing out at the bookies. If people are happy to back a horse at 6/1, why would they offer 8/1?

[ComplyOrDie]

I couldn't back him yet but a very good judge in another place reckons that Zanahiyr put up a stellar performance on Sunday.

Until NRNB comes in, most of the favourites would be off my radar in singles but there's no point in lashing out at the bookies. If people are happy to back a horse at 6/1, why would they offer 8/1?

I hope Zanahiyr ends up the one to beat, as he is of primary focus for myself in the Triumph (at bigger prices), however, the 5/1, compared with just last season (possibly previous seasons too), is very skinny at this stage.

[delsie777]

I couldn't back him yet but a very good judge in another place reckons that Zanahiyr put up a stellar performance on Sunday.

Until NRNB comes in, most of the favourites would be off my radar in singles but there's no point in lashing out at the bookies. If people are happy to back a horse at 6/1, why would they offer 8/1?

I agree that Zanahiyr put up an eye-catching display - more notable in view of the regard that the Mullins camp appeared to hold for Saint Sam. That said, I agree that this has perhaps led to Quilixios being somewhat overlooked by the punters. I think Skybet's 12/1 any race price for Q is tempting for those not involved so far. All the talk was that Elliot likes to target last week's race with his best juvenile. I think it was more his desire to keep his top pair apart and that Zanahiyr's work at the time made his participation more pressing. I don't think it should necessarily detract from Quilixios' chance of turning out the best, Personally I have backed both - Q because i was impressed with him and Z when he was declared for last Sunday's race. They could both be very good.

[charlie]

Great start to the thread btw people!!

[Birds Nest]

I like this thread..great idea Charlie... I'd like to nominate ABP as a fav for the bin...2020 gold cup was in my opinion an average to fair race, nearly all the runners were still in contention 3 out, with only minimal different luck in running anyone of 4 or 5 horses could have won it and if youd ran that race 2 or 3 times you could ave had 3 different winners. Not saying ABP couldnt win it again of course but hes up against those same horses who arguable could have better preps/run ups nxt year and also hes now facing the very strong rsa form in min ind/ champ. The closeness of those finishers to abp last yr also suggests to me that maybe theres no actually star in that generation either. Just an opinion of course

[Dandrew99]

I think the only favourites I think are actually fair prices are Envoi, Shishkin and Epatante

Agree with most above, Imperial Aura for me is the worst. Definitely eye catching so far, I have no issue with him being there or there abouts. But he's a 160 horse, he's still got plenty of improvement to get up to Min levels, add in Allaho and Samcro who could also be 165+ and possibly Defi who I really really hope goes up in trip and finds his form, the Ryanair could be the most competitive race of the festival! I'm not sure I'd back him at 7/1 on the day if those guys all turn up, let alone 4 months out. There are probably another 4 I could make a case for too.

Mares Novice and Juvenile races are ones I like to stay away from, 4/1 on Zanahiyr when we may not have even seen some of the runners in this is a bit crazy. Justified favourite though. Same with SWIW, there are always horses that come from nowhere to be in contention here, so that's one I'm staying away from too.

Chacun Pour Soi is one I'd need 4/1 just to even turn up, so he's a big no from me. He'd probably be a fair favourite when it's NRNB.