The Favourites Bin

[Kevloaf]

Bravemansgame needs a bit of a slapping as fav doesn't he?

Champagne should be fav (That's Bolly - Bollinger - Bob Olly - Bob Olinger)


Nicholls couldn't win this race with Denman, he's not winning it with an inferior beast.

[Lobos]

Bravemansgame needs a bit of a slapping as fav doesn't he?

Champagne should be fav (That's Bolly - Bollinger - Bob Olly - Bob Olinger)


Nicholls couldn't win this race with Denman, he's not winning it with an inferior beast.

Agree. I've backed him but he'd be my 3rd choice behind Bob and GDM. I do like Bollinger a hell of a lot !!

[charlie]

I thought Gauloise was just ok. She travelled in to contention nicely but instead of stretching clear she seemed to make hard work of MB who was green as the hills. Obviously Gauloise can improve again but I think she needs to and wouldn’t be interested at her current price. If your on at big prices happy days.
willie was interviewed a few weeks back and mentioned that Finest Evermore should show a lot more next time. She will need to cos she was piss poor lto but she’s entered in Navan Friday so she could get back on track.

Perfectly summed up IMO

[archie]

Everyone will have their own view on the price and the NRNB market is a different matter entirely. However, in a pure ante post market Gauloise is clearly the correct favourite at this moment in time and pretty much an identikit portrait of a typical winner.

[Kevloaf]

Liammet



Given what we've seen recently..... who would people be taking on now......

[Liammet]

Liammet



Given what we've seen recently..... who would people be taking on now......

Not one of the very short favs

I would take Allaho on

Think a few will come up the hill better than him

[Atlantic Viking]

Of the current shorties, i'd be inclined to take on:

Appreciate It
Gaillard Du Mensil
Epatante
Kilcruit
Paisley Park
Zanahiyr

[Muswell]

Agree with that I think the Ryanair is pretty open

[Lobos]

Think I put up Appreciate It so I'm out !

[charlie]

I put up Monkfish @ 3/1 . I still feel it was the right post at the time but fuck me, I’d love to go back in time and be wrong and have 3/1

[jack1092]

kinloch brae Just had a flick through this + noticed KB has been quiet...

[Lobos]

I put up Monkfish @ 3/1 . I still feel it was the right post at the time but fuck me, I’d love to go back in time and be wrong and have 3/1

And I'd love to take the 7's on AI which even Kev said was too short.

[Kevloaf]

Well at current prices - all 28 for the bin would probably work out alright?
Let's see in March how many of the ante post favs from 3/12/2020 win.

Coral Cup and Boodles I can't find prices for..... so 26......


Supreme - Ballyadam (8/1) - Alright winner of the only grade 1 novice hurdle so far. Favourite by default? I'll be shocked if he's still favourite by NYD.

Arkle - Shishkin (6/4) - Laying favourites before NRNB at 2/1 or less would be profitable ante post as a blind system.

Ultima - Phoenix way (20/1) - that's with WH. Entered over 2m this weekend, does look like he's being plotted, as he's a 3m1f winner over hurdles. That's it though, that's the whole case that can be made, way too much luck needed, the target is far from certain. Too easy to pick holes in (which it should be at 1/20)

Champion Hurdle - Epatante (7/4) - Laying favourites before NRNB at 2/1 or less would be profitable ante post as a blind system.

Mares Hurdle - Honeysucke (3/1) - Connections clearly stating that she may run in the CH, should be enough to put anyone off backing her at this price. New contender in Concertista and perhaps an old rival in BDD means she's far from bomb proof at this stage.

NH Chase - Galvin (6/1) - I actually think he'll go off shorter than this, if turning up, however there will also be two other single figured priced horses in the market (Mullins/O'Connor) so you can make a case to lay him, as he's good but not unbeatable.

Ballymore - Appreciate It (10/1) - Priced on reputation rather than actual form in the book (I do actually really like him though)

RSA - Monkfish (7/2) - I was blown away with his chase debut as I said at the time, however, his hurdles form hardly had him head and shoulders the best staying novice chaser. He's clearly going to be a player if he gets there already on what we've seen but the RSA has loads of exciting contenders yet to be played. Like him, but easy to bin at the price.

QMCC - Chacun Pour Soi (9/2) - Favourite without having the best form or being highest rated and some sound-ness doubts.

Cross Country - Easysland (9/4) - Got beat over C&D last time in a handicap, too much made of the weights. Jockey question mark and a race that is unpredictable.

Bumper - Sir Gerhard (4/1) - Stupidly short for the Champion Bumper. Owner/Trainer combo dictating this. Was always going to be a horse the bookies would see cash for, price driven. This is a horse the bookies could clip, and they'd see even more money for it as everyone convinced themselves he must be the next EA. (Hope he is) haha

Marsh - Envoi Allen (7/5) - Laying favourites before NRNB at 2/1 or less would be profitable ante post as a blind system.

Pertemps - Tower Bridge (12/1) - This short because he was the first JP horse to qualify, and the legendary Upping The Ante boys picked him.

Ryanair - Imperial Aura (7/1) - Others have summed this one up nicely already, likeable horse but easy to find alternatives at bigger prices so he's a poor favourite.

Stayers Hurdle - Thyme Hill (5/1) - Over reaction to beating a below his best Paisley Park and a non-staying McFabulous? Trainer not one that'd fill you with confidence that he can produce on the big day anymore (bit harsh?) Irish may have some contenders? - Not the easiest to bash to be fair.

Plate - Greanateen (20/1) - 2nd favourite for the Tingle Creek this weekend. Not unfeasible he isn't G1 class, they go for a handicap and he steps up in trip, but 20/1 now for that is bonkers. Bin.

Grand Annual - Greanateen (16/1) - As above, without the step up in trip bit. Unlikely to be 'well in' as he'll be running on merit this weekend?

Mares Novice Hurdle - Shewearsitwell (5/1) - Has had a 'minor setback', missing an engagement not ideal, time boys have gone nuts for her, plenty of fasle dawns when that happens and Willie may have better in his stable. He usually scatter guns the race and has had big priced winners too, as well as winning favs. On a numbers game, she's a bin.

Kim Muir - Glenloe (25/1) - Not mentioned in the stable tours? Bin.

Triumph - Zanahiyir (5/1) - Easy to bin at single figures for the Triumph in Dec. The market only had 3 horses less than 20/1, all trained by Gordon, and I'm not even convinced he's the best of them, let alone the other horses that'll enter this market. Terrible ante post price even if he wins it. Bin.

County Hurdle - Main Fact (20/1) - Is trained by David Pipe. Bin.

Albert Bartlett - Holymacapony (18/1) - Debut was nice enough, but definitely favourite because of connections previous horses. Not a market that looks like it's formed yet so not hard to imagine a winner lurking away from the aforementioned.

Gold Cup - Al Boum Photo (6/1) - Is this relatively unpopular horse going to become a 3-time Gold Cup winner? 6/1 to become level with ARKLE, COTTAGE RAKE and BEST MATE for Gold Cup wins, leaving only GOLDEN MILLER with more? Bin, he surely can't join that list.

Mares Chase - Benie Des Dieux (6/1) - Definitely not running this half of the season, favourite based on stable tour comments and a bookmaker move. Far from certain to turn up. Race conditions unknown.

Foxhunters - Billaway (7/1) - Favourite despite being beaten easily, and fairly (for the second time that season)... by the 2nd fav. Favourite because of Mullins, who has never won the race.

Martin Pipe - Wide Receiver (16/1) - Not certain to run, backing the favourite ante post in Dec for the Martin Pipe is so obvious to bin.




Bin 'em all.



I actually hope a few of them win - but it'll be interesting to see how the SP's and these prices compare, and how the +/- level stakes would play out for both.

5 weeks to go..... this was the state of play early December.... how is it getting on...

Supreme - Ballyadam - was 8/1f, now 9/1 third fav. Correct prediction he wouldn't be fav by NYD.

Arkle - Shishkin - was 6/4f, now EVENS. Still fav, one strong rival has emerged. Now NRNB in, harder to bin.

Ultima - Phoenix Way - was 20/1, now 33/1 - was easy to pick holes tbf. Correct to bin.

Champion Hurdle - Epatante - was 7/4, now 5/2 - correct to bin, could have laid and have a free roll now technically.

Mares Hurdle - Honeysuckle - was 3/1, now 5/1 - correct to bin, won't run here.

Boodles - NEW ENTRY - Saint Sam - 10/1 - Easy to bin as as ante post handicap fav. Pulls too hard, not 'well in'.

NH Chase - Galvin - was 6/1, now 9/2 - Correct in predicting he'll go off shorter, however could be a hot race still and no issue in the bin.

Ballymore - Appreciate It - was 10/1, now 8/1 - As I said, did really like him...however, correct to bin, fav for a different race!

RSA - Monkfish was 7/2, now 4/5 - Incorrect to bin, was "blown away" at this point and he's put in two belters since.

Coral Cup - NEW ENTRY - Damalizque 14/1 - bin, won a handicap, had her day in the sun already this season.

QMCC - Chacun Pour Soi was 9/2, now 10/11 - incorrect to bin, still, has new contenders to deal with, never been to the track and glass.

Cross Country - Easysland - was 9/4, now 9/4 - correct to bin, hasn't had a run since. That has to be a negative.

Grand Annual - Greanateen was 16/1, now 20/1 - no longer fav. Was easy to bin then, correct to bin.

Bumper - Sir Gerhard - was 4/1, now 10/3 - correct to bin as no longer fav?

Marsh - Envoi Allen was 7/5, now 5/6 - still has to get there, but looks good. Form if taken literally is knockable however, all too easy.

Pertemps - Tower Bridge was 12/1, now not quoted RIP.

Ryanair - Imperial Aura was 7/1, still 7/1 - was the most popular 'binner' at that time, no longer fav. Didn't complete LTO either.

Stayers - Thyme Hill was 5/1, now 4/1 - correct to bin though, no longer fav.

Festival Plate - Greanateen was 16/1, now 25/1 - correct to bin, bigger price now. No longer fav.

Mares Novice Hurdle - Shewearsitwell was 5/1 - Binned and mentioned the minor setback, that seems to have ruled her out.

Kim Muir - Glenloe was 25/1 - correct to bin, wasn't in the stable tours, no entries since.

Triumph - Zanahiyr was 5/1, now 11/4 - very strong stable vibes, however of all the races this one has the latest springers. I stick to what I said, even if he wins, 5/1 wasn't a great bet.

County Hurdle - Main Fact was 20/1, now 33/1, and still correct to have been binned as still trained by David Pipe.

Albert Bartlett - Holymacapony was 18/1, now 40/1 - correct to bin. Has proven not good enough.

Gold Cup - Al Boum Photo was 6/1, now 3/1 - incorrect to bin at the prices. The 1 run prep has worked in his favour for his price and rivals floppin'.

Foxhunters - Billaway was 7/1, now 10/30 - incorrect to bin on price but the horse can't jump and the horse that beat him is a bigger price, so bad fav, would still bin.

Mares Chase - Benie Des Dieux was 6/1, now 5/1 - correct to bin, no longer fav. Still far from certain to turn up - however NRNB, good thing

Martin Pipe - Wide Receiever was 16/1, now 11 - weird one, still fav, has shortened, but somehow weakened his grip on the race ...

[charlie]

Who do we think is the most vulnerable out of Shishkin, Monkfish and Envoi Allen?

Shishkin has a proper competitor in Energumene, whereas the same can't be said for Monkfish and Envoi Allen IMO.

Envoi Allen would probably be my pick as least vulnerable. Competition looks weak, he'll be fresh, he does everything easily and is 2/2 at Cheltenham. He ticks so many boxes and I am struggling to envisage any scenario that gets him beat.

[Spectre]

I think that’s probably fair Charlie. Although all three look pretty rock solid assuming there are no jumping issues.