Cheltenham Handicap Shortlists

[charlie]

Literally just done the same thing at work

Oh aye. Not printing 63 pages at home!!

[archie]

Are you concerned about not knowing the mark for over a third of the entries or are you applying a standard 'penalty' to all the Irish?

[ComplyOrDie]

Are you concerned about not knowing the mark for over a third of the entries or are you applying a standard 'penalty' to all the Irish?

I'm not going through them with a fine tooth comb yet, just dwindling them down who don't fit the obvious trends that I personally stick to. Once weights come out I will re-assess.

[Folski]

I have done some analysis on Elliott handicap winners in recent years, 2016 - 2018, specifically.

In this time Gordon has had 7 handicap winners with a huge 4 out of 9 last year. Is there any real trends in spotting Elliott winners? Absolutely.

7/7 had first run prior to the new year with 5/7 having run before mid November
7/7 had at least 3 runs with 1 having run 4 times, 2 running 5 times and one 7 times.
7/7 had completed on every start that season.
6/7 carried at least 11 stone (Delta work 10-10).
6/7 had run at Punchestown during the season (BBB the exception).
5/7 had run at Fairyhouse during that season (Delta Work & COC the exceptions).
5/7 had won during that season.
5/7 had ran in at least one graded race that season both exceptions changed to Gordon during the season (DK & VOC).
4/7 went off at a price bigger than another Elliott horse.
4/7 were having their first run in a handicap.

[Kevloaf]

I have done some analysis on Elliott handicap winners in recent years, 2016 - 2018, specifically.

In this time Gordon has had 7 handicap winners with a huge 4 out of 9 last year. Is there any real trends in spotting Elliott winners? Absolutely.

7/7 had first run prior to the new year with 5/7 having run before mid November
7/7 had at least 3 runs with 1 having run 4 times, 2 running 5 times and one 7 times.
7/7 had completed on every start that season.
6/7 carried at least 11 stone (Delta work 10-10).
6/7 had run at Punchestown during the season (BBB the exception).
5/7 had run at Fairyhouse during that season (Delta Work & COC the exceptions).
5/7 had won during that season.
5/7 had ran in at least one graded race that season both exceptions changed to Gordon during the season (DK & VOC).
4/7 went off at a price bigger than another Elliott horse.
4/7 were having their first run in a handicap.

Interesting.

I like the first run in a handicap. I feel like often "we" look for a sneaky plot, when a lot of the time, horses beaten in hard races having been campaigned openly are ignored.

That'll be my angle when the weights come out anyway

[Hurricane fly]

Interesting.

I like the first run in a handicap. I feel like often "we" look for a sneaky plot, when a lot of the time, horses beaten in hard races having been campaigned openly are ignored.

That'll be my angle when the weights come out anyway

I take that very view a lot of the time, I’m much more interested in horses performances in graded races than handicaps.

I believe there is a big gap in quality between the two and is something that can be exploited in first time out handicappers

[Folski]

Interesting.

I like the first run in a handicap. I feel like often "we" look for a sneaky plot, when a lot of the time, horses beaten in hard races having been campaigned openly are ignored.

That'll be my angle when the weights come out anyway

Ones that have 3 starts, graded form, 100% completion & run at either Punchestown or Fairyhouse
Ultima - Gun Digger, The Storyteller.
Close - Gun Digger, Mengli Kahn.
Coral - Dinons, Satoshi, The Storyteller, Tombstone, Vision D'Honneur.
FW - Chief Justice, Surin.
Pertemps - Satoshi.
Plate - Duca De Thaix, Gun Diggrt, Hardline, Mengli Kahn, The Storyteller.
Kim Muir - Gun Digger.
County - Felix Desjy, Tombstone, Vision D'Honneur.
Grand Annual - Duca De Thaix, Hardline, Mengli Kahn, Tycoon Prince.
Pipe - Satoshi, The Storyteller, Vision D'Honneur.

[Quevega]

Gun digger is a certainty then

[ComplyOrDie]

Gun digger is a certainty then

Haha the one I've backed 'any race' today. He looks pretty obvious to me.

[Quevega]

Haha the one I've backed 'any race' today. He looks pretty obvious to me.

Is he still 25s
I’ll top up if he is

[ComplyOrDie]

Is he still 25s
I’ll top up if he is

I backed e/way with Hills. 22's boosted. Like the place cover myself. Where was he 25's?

[Quevega]

I backed e/way with Hills. 22's boosted. Like the place cover myself. Where was he 25's?

Hills a couple weeks back
Think Kev or someone added him

[charlie]

I'm not going through them with a fine tooth comb yet, just dwindling them down who don't fit the obvious trends that I personally stick to. Once weights come out I will re-assess.

This is exactly how I do it. Dwindle down so when the weights come out I can go through what I've already done with a fine tooth comb

[luisgarciaisgod]

I generally refrain from putting anything down in the handicaps until the weights are out but couldn't resist backing Kilultagh Vic for the Coral Cup at 33s. Will probably be carrying top weight but he only finished less the 2l behind Presenting Percy in the Galmoy 2 runs ago and with a bigger field he'll be less likely to run into the ground by Monalee like he was in the Red Mills.

[charlie]

Ones that have 3 starts, graded form, 100% completion & run at either Punchestown or Fairyhouse
Ultima - Gun Digger, The Storyteller.
Close - Gun Digger, Mengli Kahn.
Coral - Dinons, Satoshi, The Storyteller, Tombstone, Vision D'Honneur.
FW - Chief Justice, Surin.
Pertemps - Satoshi.
Plate - Duca De Thaix, Gun Diggrt, Hardline, Mengli Kahn, The Storyteller.
Kim Muir - Gun Digger.
County - Felix Desjy, Tombstone, Vision D'Honneur.
Grand Annual - Duca De Thaix, Hardline, Mengli Kahn, Tycoon Prince.
Pipe - Satoshi, The Storyteller, Vision D'Honneur.

Thanks for this, interesting