Cheltenham Handicap Shortlists

[Viking Flagship]

Yep borderline Close Bros. Shouldn't have a problem getting into any of the open handicaps.

[Scooby91]

Thank you both

[Kevloaf]

Gun digger could be Kim Muir id have thought. He looks like he wants further than 2 1/2 and ran him over shorter to handicap him.

I could be wrong.

Fairly sure Gordon already knows Blow by blow rated below 145, as far as I know they can call him up and ask.
But we'll find out tomorrow.
Gun Digger looks more progressive I'd say which would usually suggest the brown advisory, given a strong pace the trip won't matter and they'll step up next year.
But I is guessing also.

any help adding Gun Digger appreciated.
Think they're on to me now with a couple.

Requested Gun Digger today, 25/1 any race with WH which I have added.

Not all my own work, (and thanks to archie for the post about the ratings for Gordon's for trials day) -

The mark of 139 seems very fair, on a line through Bacardys - who although can't jump, is a 150+ rated hurdler, who fell at the last leaving Gun Digger clear (along with another horse) but I like the way he was going, and he'd have certainly been in the mix that day.

I also think the 3l behind Chris's Dream is potentially a run he's well handicapped on, as that horse wouldn't be out of place in graded races.

Some of his other form is more 'miss' than 'hit' but he has a slim chance of slipping into the Close Brothers, but has the Kim Muir and Plate as well as possibilities.

Gigginstown guarantee's an able pilot on board wherever he goes, and they have enough good horses to be able to target a few at handicaps, which although isn't actual proof of anything, certainly isn't a negative to my mind.

[archie]

If previous Festival winners are your bag, I'm looking at Tully East who seems to be going the hurdle route. Rated 10lb lower over hurdles he has a Leopardstown entry. Can't see him quoted in the any race market but interesting.

[Kevloaf]

If previous Festival winners are your bag, I'm looking at Tully East who seems to be going the hurdle route. Rated 10lb lower over hurdles he has a Leopardstown entry. Can't see him quoted in the any race market but interesting.

Definitely an angle that gets me excited.

Martin Pipe an option, a 4th placed finish in that race before to add to his win?

40s available? I think that's a very interesting shout.

66/1 for the Coral Cup?

[Kevloaf]

Sayar - mentioned on the On The Hunt Podcast, entered in the same race Bleu Berry had a prep in last year, off a similar layoff. Likely to use that race as a prep for the Coral Cup.

Not priced up anywhere but he was a horse mentioned for the Supreme at one stage.


He'll be fairly under the radar for Mullins?

[Quevega]

Sayar - mentioned on the On The Hunt Podcast, entered in the same race Bleu Berry had a prep in last year, off a similar layoff. Likely to use that race as a prep for the Coral Cup.

Not priced up anywhere but he was a horse mentioned for the Supreme at one stage.


He'll be fairly under the radar for Mullins?

Just been looking at likely ones from that race saturday (the ladbrokes) who have potentially a stone in hand so win here then go close at cheltenham, and came up with.

Wonder Laish (obv)
Sayar,
Eclair De Beaufeu
Cut the mustard

One or two others interest me if they run well (eyecatchers) without winning, like Tully east that archie mentioned for example. Saglawy and hearts are trumps.

[Quevega]

Just been looking at likely ones from that race saturday (the ladbrokes) who have potentially a stone in hand so win here then go close at cheltenham, and came up with.

Wonder Laish (obv)
Sayar,
Eclair De Beaufeu
Cut the mustard

One or two others interest me if they run well (eyecatchers) without winning, like Tully east that archie mentioned for example. Saglawy and hearts are trumps.

Now looked at betting and Uradel been backed so also has to be of interest.

[Kevloaf]

You think any can do the double?

I'm thinking more along the lines of seeing what "flops" and backing them

...by flops I actually mean, "will come on for the run"

[Quevega]

You think any can do the double?

I'm thinking more along the lines of seeing what "flops" and backing them

...by flops I actually mean, "will come on for the run"

It's been done by Final approach, Xenophon (probably others gone close or done it) and Off you go might have gone close last year.
You'd regularly get the placed horses, and winners in this go off shortish at the festival although these days they tend to have to run off at least 10lbs more, sometimes 15-16lb. So you are right in a way.
The ones that are mid 20's probably need to win to get to cheltenham though, but tend to get a stone if they do, but thats why I'd favour those listed as they may be capable.

[charlie]

As I take what can only be described as a terrifyingly lackadaisical approach to doing my actual job, I thought I would go through all my ante post selections and start thinking more about my position on each individual race. It has led me back to plenty of horses owned by JP McManus. We all know the JP silks are synonymous with Cheltenham success and it’s impossible to knock the winning most owner with 50+ Cheltenham winners, but it was hearing the all too common phrase ‘JP plot job’ the other day that prompted me to look at JP’s handicap record at Cheltenham over the last 10 festivals (2008 – 2018). I appreciate I’m probably not reaching conclusions the bright minds of The Fat Jockey forum haven’t reached already, but I thought it would be interesting to look at the actual numbers. I wouldn’t let these numbers or stats influence what I back, but I thought would be interesting to look at.

Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

Ultima
11 / 2 / 3 / 1
2 winners
2012 - Alfie Sherrin 14/1
2009 - Wichita Lineman 5/1f

Close Brothers
14 / 0 / 2 / 3

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
21 / 2 / 3 / 5
2009 - Garde Champetre 7/2f (he had the 1,2,3 that year)
2008 - Garde Champetre 4/1

Coral Cup
24 / 0 / 3 / 2

Pertemps
27 / 0 / 3 / 4

Brown Advisory
17 / 0 / 3 / 3

Kim Muir
19 / 2 / 2 / 3
2016 - Cause Of Causes 9/2f
2012 - Sunnyhillboy 13/2

Martin Pipe
16 / 0 / 2 / 1

County Hurdle
30 / 1 / 3 / 1 / 2
2012 - Alderwood 20/1

Grand Annual
26 / 3 / 3 / 2
2018 - Le Prezien 15/2
2013 - Alderwood 3/1f
2012 - Bellvano 20/1

The ‘Plot’

Garde Champetre 2009 - 11-12 – top weight
Sunnyhillboy – 11-11 – 2/23 in the weights
Cause Of Causes – 11-9 – 5/22 in the weights
Garde Champetre 2008 – 10-13- 6/16 in the weights
Le Prezien 11-8 – 6/22 in the weights
Wichita Lineman - 10-9 – 12/21 in the weights
Alderwood 2012 – 11-1 – 13/26 in the weights
Alderwood 2013 – 10-11 – 13/23 in the weights
Bellvano - 10-2 – 15/21 in the weights
Alfie Sherrin - 10-0 – Bottom weight

Summary

Total Handicap Runners: 205
Winners: 10 (4.8% strike rate)
Placed: 26 (12% strike rate)

27 (13%) of JP handicap runners have gone off favourite.
4 (14%) of those went on to win.
In the last 10 years Pendra, Bouvreuil & Get Me Out Of Here accounted for 43% of all his placed runners.

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down - £860.

The JP ‘plot job’ has little to no substance to it. Other than Alfie Sherrin who crept in off bottom weight, 50% of his winners were towards the top end of the weights. Nearly 15% of all his runners go off fav in handicaps because the public believe of ‘the plot’, but I suppose that’s good for the horses left in behind at bigger prices that we can all get stuck into.

JP Handicappers with Festival Experience/Form

Squouateur
2016 - Martin Pipe – 7/24
2017 - Kim Muir – UR
2018 - Kim Muir – 3/20

Cheltenham 2019 - Kim Muir – 16/1

Bouvreuil
2015 - Fred Winter – 2/22
2016 - Close Brothers – 2/20
2017 - Brown Advisory – 3/24
2018 - Grand Annual – BD

Cheltenham 2019 - Grand Annual - 33/1

Ivanovich Gorbatov
2016 – Triumph* - 1/15
2017 – County Hurdle – 6/25
2018 - County Hurdle – 17/25

Cheltenham 2019 – County Hurdle – 33/1

Le Prezien
2017 - Grand Annual – 8/24
2018 - Grand Annual – 1/22

No Comment
2017 - Martin Pipe – 7/23
2018 - National Hunt Chase – 6/16

Place Form 2018

Glenloe – Pertemps – 2/23
Early Doors - Martin Pipe – 3/23

The L15

Squouateur - Kim Muir – 16/1
Ivanovich Gorbatov - County Hurdle – 33/1
Bouvreuil - Grand Annual - 33/1
Glenloe – Ultima – 20/1

Like I said at the start, no revelations or ground breaking information, but it puts into perspective his strike rate, especially in races like the Coral Cup and Pertemps where he comes mob handed every year and never wins. Can someone find a JP double for the Coral Cup and Pertemps please because after all that its nailed on isn’t it.

[Humble Pie]

Well done mate

Puts JP plots in perspective

[Hurricane fly]

Charlie you’ve summed up my thoughts perfectly, I can’t stand hearing JP loves a plot, or the same goes for some trainers e.g David Pipe.

“Oh Pipe loves a plot for the handicap” you know who else does? Everyone, everyone is trying get winners anyway they can.

[Humble Pie]

JP & Pipe plots take me back too many years than I care to remember!

Couldn’t agree more
Off to see what I’ve bet in these plot races

[Quevega]

Excellent stuff Charlie.
The JP handicap blot.
It is just a racing phrase lazily trotted out by journalists and pundits/punters alike that retains some relevance with some people from back in the day.
JP's obviously had previous handicap successes prior to 2008. And has consistently had them dotted throughout a season also. But you'd think he would with the numbers he has.
It's a general problem with most gambling people to remember the one winner and not all the losses in between.
Too much unwarranted praise in this game on that basis.
The JP plot goes along with
Jonjo can get one ready -
Tony Martin plotjob's
and many more that I'm sure people on here can identify with.

Gamblers are always on the sniff, and if you've smelt it somewhere before then you'll probably go there again, even if you've been 100 times since and not got a sniff.

And in 10 yrs time we'll still be watching out for which one of pat Kelly's 3 horses he has in training is going to turn up at the festival in the pertemps.