He could get raised another couple of pounds being stood in his box yet. The horse he beat at Chepstow is running in the Somerset National this week and the horse he beat into 3rd at Newbury on Boxing Day runs at Newbury tomorrow.
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Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View PostI think this rise gives them a big problem. Off 134 he had to run again and with a good showing he would have been raised sufficiently to get into the Close Brothers. 138 is a grey area as I feel it will be below the cut off and it's tricky to still stay under the 145 ceiling with a win nto.
All in vain though because this was probably half a pound too much, much to my cost...
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Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View PostAs above.
3 or 4 years ago the top 20 at the 5 day stage all stood their ground, last year a load weren't declared because of the ground. In a typical running of this race I'd be surprised if 138 got you into this race, given that it's 7lb off top weight.
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Ivanovich Gorbatov - County Hurdle 33/1 or 25/1 NRNB
I'm sure a lot of you will be thinking I have gone mad, and indeed for some of you IG may well have been a cliff horse for some time, given his early promise as a juvenile. His decline is worrying, but ultimately he is not void of ability still, as shown in the Galway Hurdle, which has produced numerous winners since, and his neck 2nd the following race. He would be your typical JP 'plot' having sat quiet, losing plenty, waiting for that moment to strike, and his rating of 134 now means he is in dangerous territory of being incredibly well in at some point.
Since the 2 runs mentioned above he has been taking it easy in his races, having gone up a few lb's for the Galway & Killarney runs, he is back down again.
2 seasons ago he finished 6th in this race off 150, finishing ahead of last seasons winner Mohaayed on that occasion, last season he was a fair bit behind off 148, he is now 14lb's lower in Ireland, but coming over here he will likely be given a couple of extra lb's, such is the way the handicapper works for the Irish horses.
I wouldn't like to say he is going to be a 'cert' but having slipped so far down the weights, possibly by design, and his Cheltenham record, prior to last season, he must now be in 'cracking each way' territory, and after having 33/1 winner Mohaayed last season I am ready to have some of the same this time around
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Haha ... I can't laugh as I put up John Constable but I KNEW IG would get a mention.
Kevin Blake did say it's funny that people assume he's being plotted for something ... then again, he's on the inside looking out now!
All seriousness, it's a good point/case
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostHaha ... I can't laugh as I put up John Constable but I KNEW IG would get a mention.
Kevin Blake did say it's funny that people assume he's being plotted for something ... then again, he's on the inside looking out now!
All seriousness, it's a good point/case
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Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View PostIvanovich Gorbatov - County Hurdle 33/1 or 25/1 NRNB
I'm sure a lot of you will be thinking I have gone mad, and indeed for some of you IG may well have been a cliff horse for some time, given his early promise as a juvenile. His decline is worrying, but ultimately he is not void of ability still, as shown in the Galway Hurdle, which has produced numerous winners since, and his neck 2nd the following race. He would be your typical JP 'plot' having sat quiet, losing plenty, waiting for that moment to strike, and his rating of 134 now means he is in dangerous territory of being incredibly well in at some point.
Since the 2 runs mentioned above he has been taking it easy in his races, having gone up a few lb's for the Galway & Killarney runs, he is back down again.
2 seasons ago he finished 6th in this race off 150, finishing ahead of last seasons winner Mohaayed on that occasion, last season he was a fair bit behind off 148, he is now 14lb's lower in Ireland, but coming over here he will likely be given a couple of extra lb's, such is the way the handicapper works for the Irish horses.
I wouldn't like to say he is going to be a 'cert' but having slipped so far down the weights, possibly by design, and his Cheltenham record, prior to last season, he must now be in 'cracking each way' territory, and after having 33/1 winner Mohaayed last season I am ready to have some of the same this time around
Backed him every year since the Triumph... those were the days.
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostHaha ... I can't laugh as I put up John Constable but I KNEW IG would get a mention.
Kevin Blake did say it's funny that people assume he's being plotted for something ... then again, he's on the inside looking out now!
All seriousness, it's a good point/case
John Constable/IG Reverse Forecast, now there is a bet for you haha
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