Cheltenham Handicap Shortlists

[JackieMoon33]

Pacific De Baune has got another small field novice race tomorrow at Donny. He’s already jumped nicely on debut but has a rating of 139 which will need to be handled delicately if they opt for the Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase. He may well prove better than a handicapper but if his mark doesn’t change after tomorrow, the options could be open.

At least his mark won’t change. I’m literally jinxing everything that comes out my mouth right now.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

See PP, BFSB and Skybet have priced up the Coral Cup, not overly surprising that none of them have The Storyteller listed

[charlie]

Hills have added markets for Ultima, Coral Cup, Brown Advisory and Grand Annual

[charlie]

If they can get him into Kim Muir then he'll be favourite, almost by default. Are there any 'any race' prices available?

Hills have 16/1 which you can boost

[Scooby91]

Defi bleu. Pertempts/ martin pipe

If he gets an entry for a pertemps qualifier, he's crying out for 3 miles.





Rhinestone. Martin pipe.

He was squeezed out today after he made a mistake and lost his place. Jumping needs to improve, but he's a good bit better than his bare form over hurdles suggests.

[Scooby91]

Eclair d'ainay county hurdle.

He's had 1 run in France finishing 2nd at auteuil and 1 over here over 2 1/2, Last time, it screamed out that he was running over the wrong trip, he travelled supremely well and diddnt get home. Skelton may well be trying to get him in here of a light weight.

[PitLad]

CEPAGE - either 3m Ultimo on Tuesday or Plate on Thursday over 2m 5f
Thought he ran well behind Frodon last Saturday and as he likes decent ground, could be saved for a race in the middle of March

[Kevloaf]

Jerrysback
Just looking at his OR of 137, he may well be one they try and plot towards the Close Brothers. I've actually backed him for the 4 miler as I think he's going to be a real good stayer, and One Jump Ahead had him in the top 40 last season. With Ok Corral getting cut strongly in the 4 miler today, and Glenloe another that has popped up (although I've also made a case here) - I thought I'd check Jerrysback.
Derek O'Connor rode him on all 4 of his PTP's, all over 3m. All his runs under rules have been 2m4f, so if he popped up in a Kim Muir or 4 miler I'd be expecting some level of improvement...


The opening post from JackieMoon says "must have more substance than owned by JP McManus" - so far I've put down Glenloe and Jerrysback
Hopefully The Storyteller can turn things around for me

[charlie]

CEPAGE - either 3m Ultimo on Tuesday or Plate on Thursday over 2m 5f
Thought he ran well behind Frodon last Saturday and as he likes decent ground, could be saved for a race in the middle of March

I like this too. Venetia Williams has a terrific record in the Brown Advisory winning 3 of the last 12. I think they will stick to 2m 5f with him. The only thing putting me off is the price of 16/1.

[jono]

Dorrels Pierji got the following write up in the RP today:

A smart sort who has kept progressing. He's entered in a Grade 2 at Limerick on Saturday but i'm tempted by the Lawlor's of Naas Novices Hurdle at Naas on the first Sunday in January

If he were to line up in the grade 2 at Limerick that could well suggest they'd be aiming him at the AB or higher targets than a handicap (even though I know this year more than ever not to read too much into an entry/race) with the likes of:

Fabulous Saga (ran in the AB)
Penhill (ran in the AB)
Outlander (ran in the AB)
Measureofmydreams (ran in the Neptune)
Faugheen (ran in the Neptune)

running in that race in previous years but if were to take up the run as Naas instead where there would look to be at least a couple of higher profile runners and Ballymore types then I feel like a handicap at the festival may be the most likely outcome, specifically the Martin Pipe.

He's had 3 runs so far this season after a seasonal debut in a bumper and is currently rated 138 which would be a mark more than capable of winning on even allowing for it to be raised a few pounds. MP winners have been rated in the past:

Blow by Blow 144 (Mullins runners were 138, 136, 137)
Champagne Classic 138 (Mullins runners were 135, 138)
Ibis Du Rheu 139 (Mullins runners were 139, 135, 139, 139)
Killutagh Vic 135 (Mullins runners were 135, 139, 136)
Don Poli 143 (Mullins runners were 143)

With Mullins winning the 2015 and 2014 renewals. If you take the types of horses Mullins generally sends to the race or the horses that win it - they are all future stayers, more often than not staying chasers. Quotes on the horse from his hurdle runs:

I know he was disappointing the last day but he put it right today. He jumped well and is still learning and could be on an upward curve. He won nicely on soft ground at Listowel and maybe it was a bit soon for him at Tipperary after Listowel but he has come back here on a nice galloping track and has put it right; winning will bring him on confidence-wise

I thought he was a decent horse but that performance looked very very good. He pulled too hard early on and Paul did his best to settle him and then when he was in front he got a little breather into him. When he turned for home he gave him a squeeze and he opened up and he looks like a really nice staying hurdler in the making.

Would also go along with the visual impression you get from his races. He certainly looks like a staying chaser in the making - from how he goes through his races to his jumping. He was well back in 5th in the grade 2 at Tipperary but that was dropped back down to 2 miles where he lost his position 3 out when the pace quickened and it was noticeable that as soon as that happened, Blackmore asked him for little effort as soon as she knew he was beat. I don't imagine he'll be running over 2 miles again.

[ComplyOrDie]

Probably unlikely as it is Colin Tizzard but wondering if Vision Des Flos is being worked on for a mark in the Coral Cup, a race the owners won with Supasundae a couple of years back off a mark of 148. VDF is currently 150 but dropped to 148 prior to his 2nd at Aintree a few runs back.

I like horses who get hammered by quality opposition in the build up to entering a handicap and it stood me in good stead last season as Mohaayed won the County @ 33/1, after having run against the likes of Elgin, The New One and better still, Buveur D'air.

Anyway, back to VDF, the worry would be if Tizzard would drop him into a handicap as they held him in high regard. For me it's a no brainer, finished 6th in the Ballymore last season, but ran a cracker, the majority of the ones ahead of him that day are going chasing, bar Scarpeta & Samcro, the latter being Champion Hurdle bound.

[cpfcpatriot]

I’d like to point towards Commander of Fleet as a horse for the Martin Pipe.

High reputation - check
Running at shorter distances than needed - check
Gigginstown - check.

Blow by Blow won it off top weight last year, it wouldn’t shock me if they did it again.

[Faugheen_Machine]

The Organist - Pertemps.

Another in the green and gold. She finished 5th in the Coral Cup last season and looked like a step up in trip would suit. She has already qualified for the Pertemps, when finishing second at Aintree, so it looks like her target is set. There was 33/1 about a week or so ago but that has been taken. 25/1 still available in a couple of places.

[Outlaw]

The Organist - Pertemps.

Another in the green and gold. She finished 5th in the Coral Cup last season and looked like a step up in trip would suit. She has already qualified for the Pertemps, when finishing second at Aintree, so it looks like her target is set. There was 33/1 about a week or so ago but that has been taken. 25/1 still available in a couple of places.

I believe Paul Jones has tipped this up early in his portfolio and iv'e seen a few on twitter mention it too seems popular for sure.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I believe Paul Jones has tipped this up early in his portfolio and iv'e seen a few on twitter mention it too seems popular for sure.

That'll explain the price cut then.