Cheltenham Handicap Shortlists

[Folski]

Mayo , someone touched on Gigginstown record early in the year over on the betfair forum by highlighting certain races winners have run in ill copy the link below.

http://community.betfair.com/chelten...vWelcomeHeader

I flagged BBB for that race in Limerick at 12/1 the night before last year and backed him at 33s for the Martin Pipe. Gordon is very much a creature of habit, he sends his novices to the Martin Pipe and 2nd season hurdlers to the Coral Cup. He also very much likes his handicap hopefuls to have plenty of runs.


Fred Winter - Veneer of Charm 3 runs but ran on flat all season last run in October.
Pertemps - Delta Work 5 runs start date 11 Nov.
Plate - The Story Teller 4 runs start date 7 Nov.
MP - Blow By Blow 5 runs start date 15 Nov.

[Folski]

Three Stars - Grand Annual
How I see this race the last few years.
2014 - a lot of talk about Next Sensation, he takes off at a mad pace and gets done up the hill.
2015 - I backed Solar Impulse and he was pulled late in the day, so I went for Next Sensation as he should have won it the year before, now no talk about the horse, he duly goes and wins.
2016 - Rock the world is backed into fav for this, I had a small saver on Solar Impulse as i had really fancied him the year prior, he wins with RTW 3rd.
2017 - Le Prezien is 7/2f for this and looks well in, who comes and wins it only last years fav RTW.
2018 - Le Prezien comes and wins in a canter.

I'm therefore thinking that a horse who was fancied to go well the year before is probably what you are looking for. Personally i backed Three Stars for this last year as i think the form of his run at Leopardstown where he gave Patricks Park a stone is very impressive, I was told PP was well fancied in the days up to that race and was duly backed from 16s to 6s on the day and won.

[Istabraq]

Gold Present - Ultima

Won't go into this with the ideal profile but was very strongly fancied for last seasons renewal until the Monday monsoon hit and ground went against him, he raced off 155 that day.
Earlier last season he won the big handicap at Ascot's Christmas meeting beating Frodon who has multiple graded wins to his name and went close off 161 in the Mackeson/Betvictor a fortnight ago, I was a little confused when he was declared for the Scottish National as he doesn't strike me as a horse who needs an extreme test of stamina.
Gold Present is currently rated 152 and with some careful placing could easily get into March's renewal off a nice mark and this race hasn't been the graveyard for 9yo some might think with three of that age and a 10yo winning since foot and mouth....

[ComplyOrDie]

Elwood - I suspect either Pertemps, Coral Cup or Martin Pipe (if he qualifies)

Put up in the 'ante post bets' thread, and have backed 'any race' accordingly. Yet another for Gigginstown, looks as though he will go down the same sort of route as Delta Work I'd imagine, being a half brother of that one and coming from exactly the same connections as Delta Work did.

Fell first time out on debut for the yard but travelled with some promise, although was beat at the time, and should be noted he was put right in at the deep end in a listed hurdle. Not many first time out horses go for a listed hurdle unless they are one of 2 things, either an extremely talented horse, or looking to work on a handicap mark by getting him beat, I suspect the latter myself.

Currently he has an entry at Clonmel next week, but that's a pretty deep race (again) for only his second start, currently entered in the same race are horses like Total Recall, Scarpeta & Good Thyne Tara.

I'm not sure which race he will end up in, and the safe option is the 'any race' market but certainly one I am keen on.

[mayo]

Love this thread but have made note to myself not to bet the handicaps until NRNB

[Can't Catch Me]

If it comes up good at the Festival Im very keen on Bun Doran in the Grand Annual.

Has some excellent form at Cheltenham... was 6th in the Novice Chase the season before last, then ran a cracking race to just lose out to Gino Trail on debut last season and that horse went on to be second behind Le Prezien last year. Think he got stuck in the mud the rest of last season and the ground is absolutely key to him.

Whilst he didn't beat much last time, I thought the manner of the victory was very taking and a mark of 147 could be perfect for the race. If he does run again on softer ground he could even come down a couple of pounds, but he does seem to run best when fresh so hope he has a nice long break before March.

I've had a small bet at 25/1 with the Bet365 cash out option, but imagine he wont be much different nearer the time so will wait to have a proper bet.

[doctorwu]

Discorama (P.Nolan)
The Drinmore will give us a better idea tomorrow.

[doctorwu]

Great idea Jackie

A couple for me right now:

The Worlds End - Ultima
Made a case for this horse in the win any race market a few weeks back after his chase debut. Since then he ran on the face of it a disappointing race at the track but that for me may mean his futures points more towards a race like this rather than the RSA / 4 Miler.
Could be on the higher end of the handicap (current mark of 152) but i'm hoping another 'below par' performance next time out might get his mark to around or just below 150 which i'd be more than happy with. Horses at the top of the market have ran very well in the last few renewals:

Shantou Flyer 2nd - 152
Beware the Bear 4th - 150
Un Temps Pour Tour 1st - 155
Noble Endeavour 4th - 154
Holywell 2nd - 153
Morning Assembly 4th - 150

He looked an absolute natural on his chasing debut and if he arrives there 4-5lbs short of his hurdles mark of 155 he's of huge interest for me. As Jackie mentions above novices have a good record in the race and they are the type who i'm increasingly drawn too in this race (and most). I won't bring up the ground debate again but that is obviously a potential sticking point. You could also argue he's had 4 attempts at the track now and not registered a single win however for me in 3 of his 4 runs at the track he's travelled through the races really well which to me suggests the track isn't a concern. The AB run he fell too far out to tell and his 2 runs over hurdles in open company saw him travel through the race lovely only to find little up the hill. Maybe he just doesn't like the finish but i'm willing to put that down to the ground those days as last time out he actually stayed on well.

Tom George and Adrian Heskin were a beaten second a few years ago with Singlefarmpayment so the combination have form in the race.
And...let's not forget the owners - the McNeil family, one of being Max McNeill owns Ultima Business Solutions - the sponsors of the race

Jono,
I can see him running in the 4 miler.

[mayo]

Discorama (P.Nolan)
The Drinmore will give us a better idea tomorrow.

Grade1 horse (I hope)

[doctorwu]

Grade1 horse (I hope)

Could be Mayo. Im on him any race. Nolan will place him well.

[doctorwu]

Le Breuil
Ultima

[jono]

Another great call Jono. Could they somehow manage to keep him below the Kim Muir rating cut off of 145? He's one I'll be watching with interest tomorrow.

He could very well do so FM - good spot. He actually had a bit of money come in for him today but struggled in todays company which to be fair looked like it would likely be the case. Part of me does just think Pipe isn't that good anymore!! But he really is not a trainer for this kind of company and has never been (for as long as I remember anyway) so a handicap entry next time could be next which would suit better for sure.

[SeanRock]

Martin Pipe: Column Of Fire

Blow By Blow was beaten by Discorama in the same race as COF was turned over in today at Fairyhouse. He was very ponderous over his hurdles and was out paced turning for home by the Mullins runner but stayed on well from the back of the last in what was probably a good field (winner Lone Wolf is well regarded). We know Gordon loves to target the race so he may have it in mind after the disappointing run today.

[Kevloaf]

A place to note down any handicap plots that you spot during the season. Any nomination has to have more substance than ‘owned by JP McManus’.

Le Breuil
Ultima

Discorama (P.Nolan)
The Drinmore will give us a better idea tomorrow.

Even "owned by JP McManus" would be more substance than just a horses name Show your workings doc.... the forum is all about opinions and discussion, so please share

FWIW, Discorama I completely agree with - Rory Delargy made excellent points on him on the Matchbook NH preview podcast... I'm not sure whether he'll prove to be a graded performer as a chaser though, as you say, tomorrow will tell us more.

[JackieMoon33]

Causey Arch - Martin Pipe
Came off the flat from Michael Dods and started his hurdling career with Willie Mullins in March of this year. He’s won 3 from 6 over trips of 2m - 2m4f and seems to have improved for the step up in trip. He has some reasonable form with Dinons and Canardier, both of whom have travelled to Cheltenham this season and won. He’s entered in a competitive 2m hurdle today at Fairyhouse but I expect him to need more time to improve and further distance before he can tackle that type of race. Should he rock up at Cheltenham he’ll have plenty of experience which will serve him in good stead.