Cheltenham Handicap Shortlists

[ComplyOrDie]

Fred Winter - Surin 25/1 or 12/1 (NRNB)

Runs tomorrow, one I like, suspect will go close tomorrow as she did on her hurdles debut. She's a tough little nut, as you would expect being by Authorized, whose progeny include Tiger Roll & Nichols Canyon.

Tiger Roll won the Triumph as a juvenile, and whilst I don't believe Surin will be quite that good she looks to have ability. I am hoping she will be a bit quicker over her hurdles than from her debut over them.

The race she ran in over Christmas was won by Veneer Of Charm (the year before), who, as we know, won the Fred Winter of 2018 for Elliott and connections, so no surprise to see him use the race again for so many of his juveniles. Unfortunately the race favourite, and another fancy, Fenta Des Obeaux, fell at the first so no chance to see what she is all about, but I suspect she will be a good thing too, whether they both end up in the Fred Winter is anyone's guess, so NRNB prices will definitely be the way forward.

[Kevloaf]

John Constable
County Hurdle

Ran in the CH last season and was rated 156 (achieved that mark for a 'flattering' 1.75L defeat to Buveur D'air the time before)

He's been rubbish since, rubbish... but is down to 139 (runs today)... I'll be keeping a very close eye on him.

He's had a run in too many races to genuinly be gone at the game (mad theory but... if he had no ability, they've have pulled up stumps for the season, or given him a break, instead, he''s going for his 8th run this season tomorrow/today! - to me, that means they've trying very hard to lower his mark ASAP.

Wouldn't be shocked to see him freshened up after today with one race in mind...

I'm half tempted by the 25/1 NRNB on offer already...

[Faugheen_Machine]

Probably already been done but....

Ordinary World - Grand Annual 16/1 (NRNB)

Whilst he will have plenty enough weight (currently rated 150, winner last season, Le Prezien, won off the same mark) should he come here it would represent a massive drop in class from what he is used to.

He has run at the last 2 festivals against Altior, the best horse in training, so we can cut him some slack for not being able to put it up to him, he got beat 15 lengths in the Arkle & 35 lengths in the QMCC last season, but ultimately last season was a bit of struggle for him within the company he kept. His latest run was full of hope though, he ran in the Grade 1 Chase @ Leopardstown over Christmas, ending 5 1/4 lengths off the winner, Simply Ned (rated 158), with Footpad (rated 166) just 4 3/4 lengths ahead.

Now we can say Footpad didn't run his race, but it's not the first time Simply Ned has turned over a Mullins hotpot, and the horses in behind Ordinary World, all rated above him, could not have had 'off days' too, I'd struggle to have every horse in the race not running their race, maybe one or 2 at a push, but not the field.

He has an entry in the 2m Grade 1 Chase @ the DRF, which I'm hoping he goes for and gets beat a fair bit, in order to drop a couple of pounds, which will only aid his chances should he turn up here.

He also has an entry in the QMCC again, not sure why, aged 9, as an owner you wouldn't want to give your horse the best possible chance @ something like the Cheltenham Festival, so I am hoping they drop that idea again and come here, but will only be backing NRNB anyway.

Age is not a concern, 9 year olds make up 33.33% of the winners for this race since the turn of the millennium.

He's one I like as well CoD. I can't get the 16nrnb so will wait to see if bet365 price him up similarly when they change to nrnb.

I'm sure I backed him for this the year he ran in the Arkle. If they can get to Cheltenham off his current mark then he'll be a leading player imo.

[BigChaang]

Fred Winter - Surin 25/1 or 12/1 (NRNB)

Runs tomorrow, one I like, suspect will go close tomorrow as she did on her hurdles debut. She's a tough little nut, as you would expect being by Authorized, whose progeny include Tiger Roll & Nichols Canyon.

Tiger Roll won the Triumph as a juvenile, and whilst I don't believe Surin will be quite that good she looks to have ability. I am hoping she will be a bit quicker over her hurdles than from her debut over them.

The race she ran in over Christmas was won by Veneer Of Charm, who, as we know, won the Fred Winter of 2018 for Elliott and connections, so no surprise to see him use the race again for so many of his juveniles. Unfortunately the race favourite, and another fancy, Fenta Des Obeaux, fell at the first so no chance to see what she is all about, but I suspect she will be a good thing too, whether they both end up in the Fred Winter is anyone's guess, so NRNB prices will definitely be the way forward.

I saw Surin mentioned by Lydia Hislop yesterday in her Road to Cheltenham column on S.L., But she never gave
any race targets or much info , just the name, Fred Winter sound's Likely doesn't it .

[ComplyOrDie]

Fred Winter - Surin 25/1 or 12/1 (NRNB)

Runs tomorrow, one I like, suspect will go close tomorrow as she did on her hurdles debut. She's a tough little nut, as you would expect being by Authorized, whose progeny include Tiger Roll & Nichols Canyon.

Tiger Roll won the Triumph as a juvenile, and whilst I don't believe Surin will be quite that good she looks to have ability. I am hoping she will be a bit quicker over her hurdles than from her debut over them.

The race she ran in over Christmas was won by Veneer Of Charm, who, as we know, won the Fred Winter of 2018 for Elliott and connections, so no surprise to see him use the race again for so many of his juveniles. Unfortunately the race favourite, and another fancy, Fenta Des Obeaux, fell at the first so no chance to see what she is all about, but I suspect she will be a good thing too, whether they both end up in the Fred Winter is anyone's guess, so NRNB prices will definitely be the way forward.

Tough as nails she is, mentality of her half brother, Tiger Roll. She'll relish the Cheltenham hill, I'm sure of it. Now hope she makes it.

[Quevega]

Tough as nails she is, mentality of her half brother, Tiger Roll. She'll relish the Cheltenham hill, I'm sure of it. Now hope she makes it.

She might be triumph after that, puts her ahead of Chief Justice, Couer sublime and others from the graded race.
It's those that may head fred winter now i'd have thought.
Couer sublime is obvious fred winter material for me.

[Scooby91]

She might be triumph after that, puts her ahead of Chief Justice, Couer sublime and others from the graded race.
It's those that may head fred winter now i'd have thought.
Couer sublime is obvious fred winter material for me.

Chief justice had already been hammered by cracker factory twice. Who in turn was hammered by quel destin.

[JackieMoon33]

Coeur sublime had already been hammered by cracker factory twice. Who in turn was hammered by quel destin.

Coeur Sublime?

[Quevega]

I know....
The Irish challenge looks to be from Sir Erec, Tap Tap Tiger, Surin, Babylon and maybe Rocky Blue at a push.
I'll be covering a couple from both sides of the sea.
Like Erec and Tiger though.

[Scooby91]

I know....
The Irish challenge looks to be from Sir Erec, Tap Tap Tiger, Surin, Babylon and maybe Rocky Blue at a push.
I'll be covering a couple from both sides of the sea.
Like Erec and Tiger though.

Lamarckise has potentially the best form of the Irish. Yet to run yet though. But she's an entry for he spring juvenile.

Eric and tiger tap tap have potential. Alot to learn also in a short space of time.

[Quevega]

Lamarckise has potentially the best form of the Irish. Yet to run yet though. But she's an entry for he spring juvenile.

Eric and tiger tap tap have potential. Alot to learn also in a short space of time.

Have you seen the AP prices for the race.

[Scooby91]

Have you seen the AP prices for the race.

Yes i have. And if i knew she was running there rather than getting a quiet one in id steam in.
She'd have ran today if the ground had a bit of ease.

Plan was to hover over the spring juvenile when / if she won today.

[ComplyOrDie]

She might be triumph after that, puts her ahead of Chief Justice, Couer sublime and others from the graded race.
It's those that may head fred winter now i'd have thought.
Couer sublime is obvious fred winter material for me.

She's not good enough for the Triumph!

[Quevega]

She's not good enough for the Triumph!

Who ? Surin ?
possibly not, but the win today puts her ahead on ratings than the ones i mentioned, so I was referring to her being high enough ranked to not have a great mark for the Fred W

[Quevega]

Update -
FE = now going over hurdles as it looks like after one aborted attempt chasing they've gone back over timber, but potentially still looks well handicapped for a race like the MP (someone mentioned as much on here recently).
DTT = now rated 144, which is perfectly balanced and looks competitive to me on that mark on all form over fences. Entered up at weekend also and be interesting to see how he's handled. Topped up again in any race market for him with WH 27-1.
If he keeps same sort of mark after running at the weekend I'd favour the close brothers and rate him a potential favourite.

Duca possibly just ruined his mark with that last win today, fingers crossed, he'd probably be competitive in a graded race or in the brown advisory or Grand annual off a biggish weight