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Has there been anything in the media etc about Klassical Dream lately? Now a general 16/1 for this, from plenty of 25s being available ~3 weeks or so ago. Perhaps just a case of other potential contenders underwhelming?
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Didn't get the chance to pop in yesterday...
Envoi Allen is perfection in national hunt equine form!
That is all.Comment
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Not seen anything specific. Drips from the stable tours were he could be the Arkle horse, but that was said about more than one.Originally posted by ToniCComment
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If we want to see Klassical Dream & more importantly for my pocket Elixir D'ainay compete in graded company at Christmas they would want to be taking up engagements this weekend given Willie's preference for 3/4 weeks between racing. There's a 2m beginners on the John Durkan card at Punchestown this Sunday that would suit both. There's also a 2m1f grade 3 at Navan the day before if he's feeling unusually bullish but you'll probably see one that's won their beginners taking up that entry.Comment
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He does have the entry in the Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade 1) on Boxing Day at Leopardstown to give a glimmer of hope. You'd probably want a run before then though and he's running out of time on that front.Originally posted by KevloafComment
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The double on its own pays out just over 5/1 at current prices.Originally posted by ToniC
I try and avoid doubles/trebles because they rarely materialise and I accept this comes with risk, but EA & Shishkin both to win any race by 1L or more @ 11/1 sounds pretty good, especially for someone like me as I don't have either in the book as singles.
Yes they have to get there, yes they have to win, but let's look at winning margins historically.
As you and others have pointed out, the winning margin has been less than a length once in the last 10 Arkle's. As Kev pointed out 7 of the last 10 favs have won. Those two stats, plus Shishkin's chase debut, plus his win @ Cheltenham, plus his overall profile, collectively leave me comfortable with that side of that bet.
Re the Marsh, 8/10 runnings have been won by a length or more, and often by a lot more than that, eg, Shattered Love (7) & Vautour (15).
If I am splitting hairs we know EA doesn't do loads out in front, and he did win the bumper by less than a length, but he won the Ballymore by nearly 5 lengths and if he is the horse we all think he is (ie. Vautour esque) then if he wins the Marsh, he's doing it by more than a length isn't he?
I've added 2 more points @ 11/1 because I think the 1 length aspect of the bet is a bit of a gift. I did the 3L5L double @ 28/1 and gave that equal amount of thought, so if that made sense at 28/1 then 11/1 for 1L1L equally, makes sense.
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.....for ease of reference I have added an Index at the front of the ‘Handicap Watch’ thread that Kev moved into the diary section. Following Monkfish’s impressive victory, I was keen to add the horse that finished 2nd, OntheRopes, to the Index with perhaps the Kim Muir in mind but Pendil points out it’s now qualified for the NHC.
Ridden by DJ Mullins, OntheRopes seems to have gone under the radar but finished way ahead of Sams Profile, Diol Ker and Escaria Ten so 33-1 with cash-out seems reasonable. Hills have introduced it to a/r market @ 16-1.Comment
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Originally posted by charlie
11/1 for for a +1L win for each does not seem unreasonable, compared to backing just the double at the current price.
If I was starting fresh, I'd probably take that double now, then play them as a double NRNB (at shorter odds than now) - if they still looked the bollocks by thenComment
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How about now....... am I alone?Comment
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Come back?
I'm lonely.Comment
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Right, hello?Comment
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Ah, so I've not been banned. Was worried for a few minutes.Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
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Well.... I'm glad I tried so hard to get this back up and running with all this thought provoking content that people were dying to add....
It's cute that I make myself laugh isn't it.
Does anyone see any each way value at the moment in these markets?
We all know how we feel about Shishkin, Envoi Allen, Monkfish and Galvin....
So, which horses are still potentially going to go off single figures in these markets:
Arkle -
Marsh -
RSA -
NH Chase -
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