Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[doctorwu]

I like Lair Du Vent for the Ultima but he could go NHC, its Tizzard which means he'll put him in the RSA where he has no chance. Simples.

[kinloch brae]

I think KB was referring to the opposition avoiding him more than anything, which to some (not so much me) may then end up flattering how good he really is.
I don't think it's happened just yet, BUT...

Several trainers have specifically mentioned avoiding him this year.

This type of thing can happen, as it did for a horse like Altior for a season or two.

The Drinmore may show us more, as that's his next race, so we'll see how competitive that is on the day.
The Drinmore should be competitive really, in most years.

I have just had a look at the Drinmore entries and as far as I can see Latest Exhibition is the only Grade 1 horse amongst the opposition. Having blotted his copybook last time it is probably a million against him running. I can envisage another small, not very inspiring line up where the only real interest is seeing whether the favourite can jump round again.

[Hardy Eustace]

I have just had a look at the Drinmore entries and as far as I can see Latest Exhibition is the only Grade 1 horse amongst the opposition. Having blotted his copybook last time it is probably a million against him running. I can envisage another small, not very inspiring line up where the only real interest is seeing whether the favourite can jump round again.

Ironically, Nolan is one of the trainers quoted as saying he wants to avoid EA!

[Al Boum Photo]

I have just had a look at the Drinmore entries and as far as I can see Latest Exhibition is the only Grade 1 horse amongst the opposition. Having blotted his copybook last time it is probably a million against him running. I can envisage another small, not very inspiring line up where the only real interest is seeing whether the favourite can jump round again.

But how many 2m4f Grade 1 horses have made their novice chasing debuts in Ireland so far? I would say 3, apart from EA - Latest Exhibition, Easywork and Asterion Forlonge. Only AF wasn't entered for the Drinmore so I wouldn't agree that Grade 1 horses are all dodging EA.

[kinloch brae]

Are we saying the cupboard is bare as regards decent opposition at two and a half miles? If that is the case then we haven't got too much to look forward to in this division between now and the Festival. How much do people actually think that Envoi Allen is better than the rest? I would be surprised if it is more than 7lbs, but if you read the headlines you would think it was 27.

[EnvoyAllen]

Thing is Mr Kinloch, you mentioned earlier in one of your posts that his price for the Marsh is based on reputation. Well, not entirely in the last few months as I’m sure a lot of money (part of the short price) has seen him halved in price from 4’s for which he was easily available throughout the whole of the Summer.
If we then look back at the 4/1 price, and even then, a short one based on ‘reputation’ as you suggest, then how are reputations in any line of business formed??

Historic results.

His career form has forged his reputation. And if you compare his 111111111 against all others in the markets he’s available to wager on, it’s his reputation that produced a short price, followed throughout the last few months by punters backing the ‘most likely winner’ based on this ‘reputation’.

And if he makes it to the festival and go’s off a likely 4/6 on, it’s because even more people have decided he’s the most likely winner.

Based on a reputation from historic results. It’s not rocket science.

And even then, none of the above certify he will win, just that if the race was run tomorrow, he’s very much the ‘likeliest’ winner.

[ComplyOrDie]

Are we saying the cupboard is bare as regards decent opposition at two and a half miles? If that is the case then we haven't got too much to look forward to in this division between now and the Festival. How much do people actually think that Envoi Allen is better than the rest? I would be surprised if it is more than 7lbs, but if you read the headlines you would think it was 27.

I think this is the case tbh. I can't imagine connections of Easywork or The Big Getaway will want to chase the arse of Envoi Allen for a 2nd consecutive festival, so expect these two to have different targets. Energumene is interesting and managed a 1lb higher RPR than Envoi Allen on debut runs over fences. I do struggle to see a great deal of competition for him though, which is why the 5/1 and bigger was the value at the time it was around.

[jono]

Energumene is interesting and managed a 1lb higher RPR than Envoi Allen on debut runs over fences.

it wasn't the best race he won. However...

It can't be taken literally, and it's a JP horse but Energumene walloped Speak Easy by almost 40 lengths.
Now Speak Easy is by no means a horse high up on the list of noivce chasers but he does tie in with some fairly decent types. Ronald Pump, Captain CJ, Carefully Selected, Pencilfulloflead. Well beaten by of those named, but nowhere near the 40L. Fitness, ground, distance wouldn't have been to blame either really.

And I have to say when he tore off at the start on Friday there was a shade of the UDS about him which I loved, purely from a reminiscent point of view. i don't expect im to be anywhere near as good...at all.

Patrick and Paul both love him. Not sure how far he'll go but he impressed me more than I thought he would. Not necessarily for the festival but i'll definitely be keeping an eye on his next run

[taylorch1990]

I was thinking with LiT disappointing and Lair Du vent showing improved form second time out today can we possibly mark up The Big Breakaways win last week. I know he's now plenty short enough but he was impressive last week and it looks like most Tizzard horses are improving a lot from there first runs.

[kinloch brae]

I think this is the case tbh. I can't imagine connections of Easywork or The Big Getaway will want to chase the arse of Envoi Allen for a 2nd consecutive festival, so expect these two to have different targets. Energumene is interesting and managed a 1lb higher RPR than Envoi Allen on debut runs over fences. I do struggle to see a great deal of competition for him though, which is why the 5/1 and bigger was the value at the time it was around.

The one clash that would be guaranteed to excite we know is not going to happen, Envoi Allen versus Honeysuckle. In an ideal world it should happen. I haven't seen a word of criticism regarding keeping Honeysuckle over hurdles. She looks like a mare who should be able to handle a fence and that is what she should be doing. Kept to hurdles she will just be trying to repeat what she has already done,

As for Energumene he hasn't exactly demonstrated his versatility with two wide margin wins on testing ground at the same track. What's going to happen on less testing ground somewhere else?

[ComplyOrDie]

The one clash that would be guaranteed to excite we know is not going to happen, Envoi Allen versus Honeysuckle. In an ideal world it should happen. I haven't seen a word of criticism regarding keeping Honeysuckle over hurdles. She looks like a mare who should be able to handle a fence and that is what she should be doing. Kept to hurdles she will just be trying to repeat what she has already done,

As for Energumene he hasn't exactly demonstrated his versatility with two wide margin wins on testing ground at the same track. What's going to happen on less testing ground somewhere else?

I was actually agreeing with you with regards to the 'cupboard being bare' and competition for EA. Of those that have been out over a fence I think Energumene vs EA would be interesting. I'm discounting those who are staying over hurdles as it is absolutely pointless having a conversation about the ifs and buts of them taking to fences.

[Kevloaf]

I haven't seen a word of criticism regarding keeping Honeysuckle over hurdles. She looks like a mare who should be able to handle a fence and that is what she should be doing. Kept to hurdles she will just be trying to repeat what she has already done,

Oooooh, I did, I did.

Having already schooled her as well, the decision not to go basing may be based on her being crap over them I suppose?

Unlikely they'd ever come out and say that, although didn't HdB say she will go chasing next year?

[Lobos]

The one clash that would be guaranteed to excite we know is not going to happen, Envoi Allen versus Honeysuckle. In an ideal world it should happen. I haven't seen a word of criticism regarding keeping Honeysuckle over hurdles. She looks like a mare who should be able to handle a fence and that is what she should be doing. Kept to hurdles she will just be trying to repeat what she has already done,

As for Energumene he hasn't exactly demonstrated his versatility with two wide margin wins on testing ground at the same track. What's going to happen on less testing ground somewhere else?

I'm going to bite.......... Honeysuckle has been kept to Hurdles this season to have a crack at the English Champion Hurdle. No other reason. IMHO of course.

[The King Pimm]

I like Lair Du Vent for the Ultima but he could go NHC, its Tizzard which means he'll put him in the RSA where he has no chance. Simples.

Lair Du Vent was one of Paul Ferguson’s 40 horse to follow 2019 to 2020. He largely disappointed over hurdles last season, finishing down the field in some good races but generally rubbish but did win his bumper and expected to be better at chasing for owners with a good history of winners over fences.

[Priceiskey]

That’s your Arkle winner lads.