Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[The King Pimm]

Just taken 66s (plus a boost) on Lair Du Vent for the NHC with Hills, everyone else cut him to 25s and lower.

Good spot that Jon, the 66/1 can be boosted to if you’re quick enough, no cash back but the price for Lair Du Vent is nearly 3 times the price as B365 & PP

[jonthehammer]

It is still there as well, Native River finished second in this in the same colours

[Quevega]

Just taken 66s (plus a boost) on Lair Du Vent for the NHC with Hills, everyone else cut him to 25s and lower.

Good spot.
I'll join in with that for a small bet.

[taylorch1990]

Agree with the above good spot and also had a bit on. Seem to have lost the boosts from my Hills account has anyone else noticed this.

[Magpie]

Agree with the above good spot and also had a bit on. Seem to have lost the boosts from my Hills account has anyone else noticed this.

Still there.for me, 3 a day boosts. Took the price, thanks Jon. Hopefully goes there and to lay the bet off nearer the day at that price.

[Quevega]

Agree with the above good spot and also had a bit on. Seem to have lost the boosts from my Hills account has anyone else noticed this.

same here, not available on any antepost bets.

[kinloch brae]

Which 'better novices' were 'shuffled elsewhere' last year KB?

I think both the Supreme and Albert Bartlett were much stronger races. I think it would be convenient to think that all those horses were best suited by two and three miles. We have already seen Asterion Forlonge and Chantry House go up in trip and I suspect without the presence of Envoi Allen that Thyme Hill might well have ended up in the Ballymore.

[Salubrious Chin]

Agree with the above good spot and also had a bit on. Seem to have lost the boosts from my Hills account has anyone else noticed this.

I've just lost the boosts on the #YourOdds sections but still fine everywhere else.

[Vautour]

Impressive from Blackbow there

[EnvoyAllen]

That might well be true but so far he has run away from a 130's horse in a 5 runner field. The price is a reflection of his reputation. To me it is a shame that there seems such a reluctance to actually test him. It is as if the whole of Ireland wants to give him a free ticket. Hopefully, the Marsh will not end up being the equivalent of last season's Ballymore with the better novices being shuffled elsewhere. It isn't going to tell us a great deal if he carries on beating horses who are significantly inferior.

Just out of interest Mr Kinloch, and without wishing at all to sound facetious, when or where has Envoi Allen not been “reluctantly not tested yet” (not quite your quote, and apologies for this). His route to Cheltenham last season and this season will be mapped out months in advance, his training daily and weekly will be mapped out very well in advance, and will have 0% bearing on which other horses are declared for the races that Envoi Allen will be entered into from now until the festival.

I think it’s a ‘reasonable’ assumption to suggest that should he have contested the Supreme last season, he would have been right there at the very finish, unlike Chantry House who finished 10+ lengths down in 3rd. Yes, Envoi’s debut this season was against horses not in the same realm as him, but to suggest there’s been a reluctance to test him I find personally ludicrous.

We’ll learn more within the fortnight when he contests the Drinmore of course, but Mr Elliott will know precisely at this point in time Envoi’s route to the festival for the best preparation for the horse. Which other horses are entered into these races over the next few months is irrelevant - Mr Elliott won’t be posting out party invites to all the owners and trainers inviting them all to ‘test’ him out.

His most important test will very likely be on the 18th March next year - that is of course, if MrElliott and Cheveley Park end up being too reluctant to test him.

[Quevega]

Just out of interest Mr Kinloch, and without wishing at all to sound facetious, when or where has Envoi Allen not been “reluctantly not tested yet” (not quite your quote, and apologies for this). His route to Cheltenham last season and this season will be mapped out months in advance, his training daily and weekly will be mapped out very well in advance, and will have 0% bearing on which other horses are declared for the races that Envoi Allen will be entered into from now until the festival.

I think it’s a ‘reasonable’ assumption to suggest that should he have contested the Supreme last season, he would have been right there at the very finish, unlike Chantry House who finished 10+ lengths down in 3rd. Yes, Envoi’s debut this season was against horses not in the same realm as him, but to suggest there’s been a reluctance to test him I find personally ludicrous.

We’ll learn more within the fortnight when he contests the Drinmore of course, but Mr Elliott will know precisely at this point in time Envoi’s route to the festival for the best preparation for the horse. Which other horses are entered into these races over the next few months is irrelevant - Mr Elliott won’t be posting out party invites to all the owners and trainers inviting them all to ‘test’ him out.

His most important test will very likely be on the 18th March next year - that is of course, if MrElliott and Cheveley Park end up being too reluctant to test him.

I think KB was referring to the opposition avoiding him more than anything, which to some (not so much me) may then end up flattering how good he really is.
I don't think it's happened just yet, BUT...

Several trainers have specifically mentioned avoiding him this year.

This type of thing can happen, as it did for a horse like Altior for a season or two.

The Drinmore may show us more, as that's his next race, so we'll see how competitive that is on the day.
The Drinmore should be competitive really, in most years.

[YoungHustler]

I think both the Supreme and Albert Bartlett were much stronger races. I think it would be convenient to think that all those horses were best suited by two and three miles. We have already seen Asterion Forlonge and Chantry House go up in trip and I suspect without the presence of Envoi Allen that Thyme Hill might well have ended up in the Ballymore.

I would disagree with the AB being a stronger race than the Ballymore and I think I've mentioned this a few times already. Obviously time will tell but I think Easywork is better than Fury Road, TBG better than Monkfish, TBB better than Lieutenant Rocco who Tizzard ran in the AB. Sporting John who unfortunately didn't run any sort of race had impressed in his previous race over 2m3 and JP must have thought he had a better chance with him against EA rather than Chantry House who had been winning over 2m. Why would Asterion be dodging EA when he had been winning over 2m and LTO had impressively won at the DRF? It was just rational IMO to go for the Supreme and let the owners' TBG take on EA. Asterion and Chantry going up in trip now doesn't mean that going up in trip last March would have been the best decision for the owners and their chance of winning at that time IMO.

[EnvoyAllen]

For those of you out there (plenty, I could imagine....) that are backing Shishkin for the Arkle or thinking about it but reluctant to take on the best price of 11/4 currently, it’s worth mentioning with a huge emphasis that should he win at extremely prohibitive odds tomorrow at Kempton against a small field of inferior horses, he will shorten further for the Arkle. Regardless of how he wins, and by how far, and against whomever inferior, he will, without question, shorten for the Arkle.

He might shorten to a price most of those potential backers won’t fancy taking so far out. It’s possible he go’s 2/1.

So, I’m going to offer an alternative for potential ‘Shishkin @ Arkle’ backers.

William Hills currently offering Shishkin 5/1 to win the Arkle by 2 lengths - yes, double the odds for the sake (and tiny risk) of a small winning margin.

And yet, the winners of the Arkle in the last decade - Sprinter Sacre (6 lengths), Simonsig (3), Un De Sceaux (6), Douvan (6), Altior (5), Footpad (12), Duc Des Genevries (12) would evidently suggest the winning margins much greater than the ‘by 2 lengths or more’ William Hill are currently offering Shishkin for the Arkle.

It’s generally won by a horse being ridden out at the line and hitting the post with plenty in hand. Those winning margins of the horses mentioned above are indicative of a trend not to be frowned upon for those who don’t feel the current 5/2 general price & 11/4 best price Shishkin is currently being offered at isn’t the value they’re looking for.

If Shishkin in 4 months ends up being of the standard of those aforementioned, then 5/1 to win the Arkle by 2l or more is surely a very good value into the market.

[Ray]

Glad i requested that 66/1 for lair du vent with hills now! To me he looks a proper stayer and i topped up on another each way on him today..i recall the stable think quite highly of him aswell..this could be a realistic target

[doctorwu]

Glad i requested that 66/1 for lair du vent with hills now! To me he looks a proper stayer and i topped up on another each way on him today..i recall the stable think quite highly of him aswell..this could be a realistic target

RSA???? I had him down for The Ultima.