Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[kinloch brae]

I completely agree with this. Whilst I have him backed for my book and the trading opportunity, I’m not feeling the love. He was beaten a long way in the Supreme and benefitted from the misfortune of others. Today was no better than okay, and I’m not feeling the love. I’m not sure he would have got the better of Pic D’orhy. He potentially needs further, but he still has plenty to prove. Yeats doesn’t get top class chasers either so Chantry House would also need to be the exception to a long career at stud.

I backed him for the Marsh prior to to yesterday and I also suggested on my ante-post thread that Yeats was a potential negative. I just don't think he gets natural jumpers. Even the better jumps from Chantry House you could argue that he spent more time than ideal in the air. It reminded me a little of Gold Present who never went on from a promising start. Chantry House shouldn't have needed any big jumps to win. Pic D'Orhy was pretty dreadful at Market Rasen and ridden on a long rein looks like an accident waiting to happen while Up The Straight is a 130's hurdler.

[Guest]

On a line through January Jets, Janidil has put in a debut comparable to Envoi Allen's level of form? Especially as JJ has the benefit of another run?

Very tough to call where Janidil would be aimed at or end up.

[Vautour]

We should probably start getting separate threads up for these

[nortonscoin200]

Know I've bored people rigid talking about Janidil - but that was a very promising chase debut today. Raced prominently and put in a superb round of jumping.

Think I can rip up my National Hunt Chase bet now!

But as Un De Sceaux says, it's very difficult to call where he will go. As someone who has backed Janidil TWAR I'd like to see him in the Arkle rather than the Marsh.

So when Willie said in his stable tour that Janidil could go down the Arkle route he wasn't joking.

[Eggs]

....I topped up on Janidil a/r @ 22-1 with Hills boost, which seems reasonable given its now a general 20-1 for Marsh & RSA.

[Guest]

....I topped up on Janidil a/r @ 22-1 with Hills boost, which seems reasonable given its now a general 20-1 for Marsh & RSA.

That looks a good way to play it. Especially as Willie/JP also have Unexcepted and Elixir D'ainay potentially, plus JP may have others and Willie obviously may have others.

Too hard to call. Good though... and again, literally he's done very similar to what Envoi Allen did but in a deeper race, so it shouldn't be under estimated?

[Eggs]

That looks a good way to play it. Especially as Willie/JP also have Unexcepted and Elixir D'ainay potentially, plus JP may have others and Willie obviously may have others.

Too hard to call. Good though... and again, literally he's done very similar to what Envoi Allen did but in a deeper race, so it shouldn't be under estimated?

...surprised that price is still there given they have it 20-1 for Arkle & Marsh. I expect it will be cut (Sky cut Janidil to 10-1 from 14-1 a/r).

(Edit - Hills have now cut Janidil to 14-1 from 20-1).

[BlueGrattan]

I have Janidil backed for the RSA at 40s with PP . I think he will be aimed for the RSA.

[SeanRock]

Re: Chantry House, I think he looked like Nicky has done the bare minimum or work on him so far, he looked as big as a house which is unusual for such a tall rangy type.

His jumping was what I was looking forward to seeing most but he was sloppy at a few early on & too big over the last few so a bit more schooling required there. I’m still confident as a backer that he’ll improve considerably as the season progresses.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

At the end of the day if Envoi Allen makes it to Cheltenham 100 % fit and well he wins the Marsh; but then it does mean the book is open to plenty of each way abuse, can understand why the bookies don’t want to give much away in this race or everyone will just back a few horses each way

[Istabraq]

At the end of the day if Envoi Allen makes it to Cheltenham 100 % fit and well he wins the Marsh; but then it does mean the book is open to plenty of each way abuse, can understand why the bookies don’t want to give much away in this race or everyone will just back a few horses each way

Yes, and his dominance is likely to scare a few away and the Marsh becomes the new Arkle with a field of 5/6/7, and right now bookies have to honour 3 places so the each way the field angle seems sensible to me assuming you can find that value...

[kinloch brae]

At the end of the day if Envoi Allen makes it to Cheltenham 100 % fit and well he wins the Marsh; but then it does mean the book is open to plenty of each way abuse, can understand why the bookies don’t want to give much away in this race or everyone will just back a few horses each way

That might well be true but so far he has run away from a 130's horse in a 5 runner field. The price is a reflection of his reputation. To me it is a shame that there seems such a reluctance to actually test him. It is as if the whole of Ireland wants to give him a free ticket. Hopefully, the Marsh will not end up being the equivalent of last season's Ballymore with the better novices being shuffled elsewhere. It isn't going to tell us a great deal if he carries on beating horses who are significantly inferior.

[Can't Catch Me]

That might well be true but so far he has run away from a 130's horse in a 5 runner field. The price is a reflection of his reputation. To me it is a shame that there seems such a reluctance to actually test him. It is as if the whole of Ireland wants to give him a free ticket. Hopefully, the Marsh will not end up being the equivalent of last season's Ballymore with the better novices being shuffled elsewhere. It isn't going to tell us a great deal if he carries on beating horses who are significantly inferior.

Which 'better novices' were 'shuffled elsewhere' last year KB?

[jonthehammer]

Just taken 66s (plus a boost) on Lair Du Vent for the NHC with Hills, everyone else cut him to 25s and lower.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Just taken 66s (plus a boost) on Lair Du Vent for the NHC with Hills, everyone else cut him to 25s and lower.

I'm surprised they didn't cut him after that. He has attributes that will be well suited to the NH Chase.