Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[darlojim]

Chantry House made a bright start to his chasing career at Ascot but had a really good blow after the race so I’d be expecting him to improve quite a lot. It was tiring ground but I was pleased with his jumping and he warmed up nicely once Nico was able to let him get his wind. He certainly won’t be going down in trip and we’ll stick to this distance for the time being before probably stepping him up later in the season.

the interview i seen he stated 'one day' he can see him stepping up in trip

[Big Bucks]

....Energumene as low as 12-1 with PP for the Marsh (25-1 365). 16-1 a/r with Hills, although the 50-1 on offer this morning now looks decent.

What price was it before it won?

[doctorwu]

....Energumene as low as 12-1 with PP for the Marsh (25-1 365). 16-1 a/r with Hills, although the 50-1 on offer this morning now looks decent.

Cant have him. Doesn't have a profile for Cheltenham.

[Eggs]

What price was it before it won?

....I’m not sure but I think it was a general 33-1.

[FinalFurlong91]

the interview i seen he stated 'one day' he can see him stepping up in trip

Youd be surprised if he wanted a 3m1f slog at this stage of his career

Could be a king George horse for next season

[kinloch brae]

the interview i seen he stated 'one day' he can see him stepping up in trip

That is correct and stepping him could be covered by another furlong.

Not sure where all the plaudits are coming from because for 80% of the race he travelled like an outsider, not an odds on favourite.

[FinalFurlong91]

That is correct and stepping him could be covered by another furlong.

Not sure where all the plaudits are coming from because for 80% of the race he travelled like an outsider, not an odds on favourite.

Mick fitz was acting like he'd just seen the next sprinter sacre

It was pretty embarrassing punditry

He was being niggled some way out

[TigerRolllllll]

....I’m not sure but I think it was a general 33-1.

It was def 33s widely yesterday as I added then thankfully .....only just talked myself into it as hate double backing

Had backed it ages ago for Arkle, which not sure they might be thinking about

Sadly also see prices going up to for RSA.....hard horse to call at moment, specially with Wille

Think it’s by same sire as UDS, but stamina on Dam side? Others may know more

[opatcho]

I've backed Chantry House for the RSA, and he looked more like a 3 miler today than a 2 and half miler

Jumped well over last few fences, hopefully more my AP, they run him over 3 miles at the fez

[FinalFurlong91]

I thought he looked unfit if anything

He showed over hurdles he had plenty of pace yet was struggling a mile from home today

[Lobos]

Just watched Chantry back. Was novicey at some as you would expect but in the main jumped well and at the last 2 he was spectacular. Didn't travel great. Inconclusive if he would have beaten Pic. Did come home very strong though so a step up looks right. Next time will tell more.

[Spectre]

That is correct and stepping him could be covered by another furlong.

Not sure where all the plaudits are coming from because for 80% of the race he travelled like an outsider, not an odds on favourite.

I completely agree with this. Whilst I have him backed for my book and the trading opportunity, I’m not feeling the love. He was beaten a long way in the Supreme and benefitted from the misfortune of others. Today was no better than okay, and I’m not feeling the love. I’m not sure he would have got the better of Pic D’orhy. He potentially needs further, but he still has plenty to prove. Yeats doesn’t get top class chasers either so Chantry House would also need to be the exception to a long career at stud.

[JackieMoon33]

I completely agree with this. Whilst I have him backed for my book and the trading opportunity, I’m not feeling the love. He was beaten a long way in the Supreme and benefitted from the misfortune of others. Today was no better than okay, and I’m not feeling the love. I’m not sure he would have got the better of Pic D’orhy. He potentially needs further, but he still has plenty to prove. Yeats doesn’t get top class chasers either so Chantry House would also need to be the exception to a long career at stud.

Yeats has only had a relatively short career at stud in the grand scheme of things so I would not personally write a horse off as a chaser because of that. Up until last year Sholokhov (who’s been at stud far longer) had not sired a Supreme winner so would you have avoided Shishkin on that basis?

I do agree that his performance yesterday has been overstated and I am a backer myself. He jumped well in the main and came home strongly but I was genuinely not sure what the outcome would have been if Pic D’orhy had stood up. As he’s a Henderson horse there will always be an overreaction in the media and bookies but that’s no different to any other year.

The reason I mentioned the Shishkin part is that I was guilty of only backing him for the Ballymore ante post and only covered him on the day. I was probably one of the first to back him too but I was blinkered in my assessment and I don’t like to cover horses in multiple races due to my approach. I do stand by Flemensfirth and Presenting not getting Supreme winners but the sample size there is so much larger there. I won’t need to worry about that one anymore though given they won’t be producing any winners soon.

[Spectre]

A poor choice of words Jackie. More so the amount of horses he’s sired that have run under NH rules. His progeny seem to top out in the 150’s. You’re right to point out the exceptions with other sires, and he could be the exception here.

My point is that he doesn’t look an exception so far, and Yeats track record says the balance of probability is to be cautious. He’ll improve from today of course, and I’m by no means saying I’ll end up being right, more that I’m likely to take the profit in his price at some point rather than let him run through to the Festival.

[Big Bucks]

Reading through the comments re Chantry House I don't see anyone over reacting with his display?? The over the top plaudits was from Mick Fitz. As for the bookies cutting him, I dont think it was an over reaction either, they have cut every single winner so far this season and his price range isn't that much of a difference, 10s still average available, 14s still with one firm and that's about what he was at best before the off yesterday (Marsh) 33s available RSA which again i dont see it being an over reaction?

The race itself id be lying if I said I was buzzing and took off my feet, but the fact he won, on a decent track on his debuet, albeit in a 3 horse race and main market rival fell he still got the job done, and came into the race and won well approaching the end of the race.

Would Pic have won if stayed up? Hard to tell, we will never know, maybe bias but i think the way CH went over and sped away over the last 2 id say he still would have beat pic.

Is there improvement to come from CH? I'd say so, just might have to cover RSA as reading between lines it could be the end target! Will learn more from his next outing and think people csn then be more critical of his performance.