Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[charlie]

.........but the main thing is Patrick wants to ride him and he'll once again forget to enter him in the RSA

Re The Big Getaway, I am really not sure about where he will end up. I’ve backed him @ 20/1 for the RSA, but I think the jury is out on this one and it really could go either way (I will try and talk myself into it more by writing this).

Willie wanting to see him over 3m on heavy ground does scream dour stayer as a statement, so I agree Lobos, the 4 miler has to come into play – but I’m not sure how much I believe the ground dependent chat. Willie specifically said post Naas on yielding/soft pre-Ballymore: “I’m not making him ground dependent at the moment anyway.” I don’t see what's changed?

My hope is he will end up being too classy for the NHC. How many 230 grand purchases that race that well in the Ballymore end up in the 4 miler? (I know Rathvinden trod that path, but he had a completely different profile). Would Donnelly want that? Would WPM want that? He said pre-Ballymore ‘to look at him you’d think it’s all about going chasing with him next year’ – is he really taking on Envoi Allen (which says a lot in itself) and buzzing about chasing for next year with a view to the 4-miler? Patrick might be, but I doubt Willie was.

What I’m seeing and hearing doesn’t compute for the 4-miler either.

I thought The Big Getaway was brilliant in the Ballymore - and actually showed quite a bit of pace. It was a slowly run race visually, and on the clock. When the pace picked up coming down the hill barring Envoi Allen, he’s galloped them all out of their comfort zone, one by one. A slow dour stayer that needs heavy ground doesn’t reach that point of a slowly run race and stretch out a field without having a bit of pace about him. Paul jumps 2 out and is looking up at the big screen thinking ‘where is he’. As we know, the rest was history and he finished 3^rd.

The first thing bookies fav Ruby was keen to emphasise when asked about The Big Getaway this season was:

‘He’s another for the staying novice chase division, but he probably has a bit more speed than Monkfish. He’s got a huge cruising speed and fences are going to suit him’.

I started writing this thinking it really could be either race, but when I watch the Ballymore back, look at his profile, factor in everything that’s been said by a multitude of people connected to the horse, it leaves me thinking the plan will be the RSA, and the horse will do the talking from there

I hope I’m right. I will be beyond fu*king raging if Willie pulls another Black Hercules out the bag and sends him down the Marsh route

[doctorwu]

Re The Big Getaway, I am really not sure about where he will end up. I’ve backed him @ 20/1 for the RSA, but I think the jury is out on this one and it really could go either way (I will try and talk myself into it more by writing this).

Willie wanting to see him over 3m on heavy ground does scream dour stayer as a statement, so I agree Lobos, the 4 miler has to come into play – but I’m not sure how much I believe the ground dependent chat. Willie specifically said post Naas on yielding/soft pre-Ballymore: “I’m not making him ground dependent at the moment anyway.” I don’t see what's changed?

My hope is he will end up being too classy for the NHC. How many 230 grand purchases that race that well in the Ballymore end up in the 4 miler? (I know Rathvinden trod that path, but he had a completely different profile). Would Donnelly want that? Would WPM want that? He said pre-Ballymore ‘to look at him you’d think it’s all about going chasing with him next year’ – is he really taking on Envoi Allen (which says a lot in itself) and buzzing about chasing for next year with a view to the 4-miler? Patrick might be, but I doubt Willie was.

What I’m seeing and hearing doesn’t compute for the 4-miler either.

I thought The Big Getaway was brilliant in the Ballymore - and actually showed quite a bit of pace. It was a slowly run race visually, and on the clock. When the pace picked up coming down the hill barring Envoi Allen, he’s galloped them all out of their comfort zone, one by one. A slow dour stayer that needs heavy ground doesn’t reach that point of a slowly run race and stretch out a field without having a bit of pace about him. Paul jumps 2 out and is looking up at the big screen thinking ‘where is he’. As we know, the rest was history and he finished 3^rd.

The first thing bookies fav Ruby was keen to emphasise when asked about The Big Getaway this season was:

‘He’s another for the staying novice chase division, but he probably has a bit more speed than Monkfish. He’s got a huge cruising speed and fences are going to suit him’.

I started writing this thinking it really could be either race, but when I watch the Ballymore back, look at his profile, factor in everything that’s been said by a multitude of people connected to the horse, it leaves me thinking the plan will be the RSA, and the horse will do the talking from there

I hope I’m right. I will be beyond fu*king raging if Willie pulls another Black Hercules out the bag and sends him down the Marsh route

Great write-up Charlie.

[JackieMoon33]

I think Chantry House will prove to be a proper weapon over fences. Really looking forward to his debut tomorrow and I am fully expecting him to dispatch of Pic D'Orhy who I hold about as much love for as I do Covid

I know its strong words and we haven't seen him yet, but if there's a horse to come out of the pack and serve it up to Envoi Allen in the Marsh I really hope it's this fella (cue the 'he can't be beaten brigade' - don't make me beat you with the historical graveyard of the 'unbeatable' at Cheltenham.....).

Cheeky little 46/1 roll up landed today for the Marsh, let's hope he does the business.

From my diary in April and then October.

Chantry House – Marsh Novices Chase
He was one of my first ante post bets for this season back in the summer of 2019. I had taken a position for the Ballymore and was adamant he’d run there, even more so after Shishkin put down his marker. Although I don’t think he’d have beaten Envoi Allen, I think it was the right race for him and he’d have run there but for Sporting John. I’m going to repeat my stance on Chantry House needing an intermediate trip still although he will also make up into a 3 miler at some point too. I’ll take the chance on the Marsh Novices Chase as I think that looks the right trip for him and although he could still run into Envoi Allen in this race, there will be less depth as the RSA looks like the hot novice chase for next year.

Chantry House – Marsh Novice
Nothing has changed here and I’m not just (potentially) taking Envoi Allen on with a value selection, I genuinely think he’s going to improve loads over fences and the step up in trip and challenge the great one. Some will crab his Supreme run but for me that was the wrong race and hurdling was only going to be part of his development.

[Eggs]

....I might have this wrong, but I think AP McCoy nominated Chantry House as his McManus horse to follow when interviewed on ITV last weekend. I have it in my Marsh book, but it’s record indicates it could go further so ahead of tomorrow I’ve taken 40-1 with cash-out for RSA.

[Craigy14]

I have to agree with the consensus of Chantry House being a Marsh trip horse, at present. He may get 3 miles in time I’m sure but we have all agreed and said the same about Envoi Allen. I think he did himself justice in the supreme which was probably the wrong race but connections wanted to split the 2.

The one fly in the ointment potentially I see in the scenario is if Dickie Diver comes back fit and well. He was expected to improve a great deal for fences etc the usual post hurdle campaign. If he has the class to go RSA then 100% I think Chantry is Marsh bound being from the same yard. But if JP fancies putting Dickie Diver in the NHC will they try Chantry at 3m earlier than expected? Would Nicky favour sending a horse to the RSA over the Marsh?

That’s the only way I see him going anywhere other than the Marsh. But ultimately if both are fit and well Chantry may prove the classier of the 2 over fences and it won’t matter where Dickie Diver goes.

[Craigy14]

....I might have this wrong, but I think AP McCoy nominated Chantry House as his McManus horse to follow when interviewed on ITV last weekend. I have it in my Marsh book, but it’s record indicates it could go further so ahead of tomorrow I’ve taken 40-1 with cash-out for RSA.

Tempted to do the same Eggs, possibly even a win tomorrow and any race might be a good play.

He won’t be odds on tomorrow given Pic has had a run I wouldn’t have thought.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Tempted to do the same Eggs, possibly even a win tomorrow and any race might be a good play.

He won’t be odds on tomorrow given Pic has had a run I wouldn’t have thought.

He's 1/2 tomorrow Craigy

[Eggs]

Tempted to do the same Eggs, possibly even a win tomorrow and any race might be a good play.

He won’t be odds on tomorrow given Pic has had a run I wouldn’t have thought.

...currently around 1/2. I expect there’ll be ‘win today & Festival’ offers tomorrow but they might not be significantly different to the specific market prices.

[Craigy14]

He's 1/2 tomorrow Craigy

I just checked as well FM after writing that.

Was more in hope of a juicy price on a double like that.

That is very short is it not? Against a race fit rival. I know Pic didn’t look the best on chase debut but you would expect improvement from him given Nicholls comments regarding chasing for him. I know both trainers have said similar.

[charlie]

From my diary in April and then October.

Chantry House – Marsh Novices Chase
He was one of my first ante post bets for this season back in the summer of 2019. I had taken a position for the Ballymore and was adamant he’d run there, even more so after Shishkin put down his marker. Although I don’t think he’d have beaten Envoi Allen, I think it was the right race for him and he’d have run there but for Sporting John. I’m going to repeat my stance on Chantry House needing an intermediate trip still although he will also make up into a 3 miler at some point too. I’ll take the chance on the Marsh Novices Chase as I think that looks the right trip for him and although he could still run into Envoi Allen in this race, there will be less depth as the RSA looks like the hot novice chase for next year.

Chantry House – Marsh Novice
Nothing has changed here and I’m not just (potentially) taking Envoi Allen on with a value selection, I genuinely think he’s going to improve loads over fences and the step up in trip and challenge the great one. Some will crab his Supreme run but for me that was the wrong race and hurdling was only going to be part of his development.

Great minds eh. You win the 'I said it first game' then

[JackieMoon33]

Great minds eh. You win the 'I said it first game' then

Nah it’s buried in my diary so I doubt many have read my ramblings from that long ago
I also tend to start my diary when the various Festivals finish as I don’t like to wait for stable tours and publications to distract me.

[The King Pimm]

Hitman is 3rd Fav (if that is the right term?!) in the Marsh market. He won his Chase debut, a class 3 at Ffos Las last month. Is there any more to his form/potential than that win?? Seems quite short for a horse after 1 win in the UK. I’m guessing he came with a big reputation from France but he’s only been running in small fields over hurdles. He’s got a Chase rating of 153 off the back of 1 run and win. Am I being a bit naive or ignorant but I can’t see what the justification is for being 16/1?? He’s only won 1 small field race in France out of 3. Is it bookmaker fear that he’s potentially a good thing or early season hysteria

[Quevega]

I was very impressed how well Coole Cody stayed the trip when winning the Paddy Power and with the mistakes he made and how he travelled you just kept expecting him to fall in a hole, but he didn't and if anything he looked stronger at the finish.

He is likely to run again in December to complete a double that few horses manage. I think he will be antepost favourite for sure.
If he did run and win this race then he'd surely be near the 150 mark.

He's now rated 143. A higher rating than last years winner of the NH chase Ravenhill 142 - aged 10. Second 10 yr old to win in last three years.
Lord du mesnil was a close second (rated 153) and this time last year was winning a handicap off a mark of 122.
In fact there were only 4 runners with a higher mark than 143 in the NH chase last year.


The NH chase looks like a race where experience is very handy, and plenty of chase starts are a positive, and along with age, the second season novices have also done well recently.

Coole Cody is still a novice.
He was rated as high as 145 over hurdles and ran in the grade 1 at aintree when trained by M Blake.
He'll be 10 in March.
He is already qualified having been second in a 3m 2f chase in September.
He has already had 6 chase starts, and 4 this season with his new handler Evan Williams.

I think he may be one that is considered for this race.
And he ticks a lot of boxes.

But he's not priced up anywhere.
I've asked Bet365.

And they told me to get fucked.
I'd appreciate it if someone could get a price with a cashout merchant.

[YoungHustler]

Re The Big Getaway, I am really not sure about where he will end up. I’ve backed him @ 20/1 for the RSA, but I think the jury is out on this one and it really could go either way (I will try and talk myself into it more by writing this).

Willie wanting to see him over 3m on heavy ground does scream dour stayer as a statement, so I agree Lobos, the 4 miler has to come into play – but I’m not sure how much I believe the ground dependent chat. Willie specifically said post Naas on yielding/soft pre-Ballymore: “I’m not making him ground dependent at the moment anyway.” I don’t see what's changed?

My hope is he will end up being too classy for the NHC. How many 230 grand purchases that race that well in the Ballymore end up in the 4 miler? (I know Rathvinden trod that path, but he had a completely different profile). Would Donnelly want that? Would WPM want that? He said pre-Ballymore ‘to look at him you’d think it’s all about going chasing with him next year’ – is he really taking on Envoi Allen (which says a lot in itself) and buzzing about chasing for next year with a view to the 4-miler? Patrick might be, but I doubt Willie was.

What I’m seeing and hearing doesn’t compute for the 4-miler either.

I thought The Big Getaway was brilliant in the Ballymore - and actually showed quite a bit of pace. It was a slowly run race visually, and on the clock. When the pace picked up coming down the hill barring Envoi Allen, he’s galloped them all out of their comfort zone, one by one. A slow dour stayer that needs heavy ground doesn’t reach that point of a slowly run race and stretch out a field without having a bit of pace about him. Paul jumps 2 out and is looking up at the big screen thinking ‘where is he’. As we know, the rest was history and he finished 3^rd.

The first thing bookies fav Ruby was keen to emphasise when asked about The Big Getaway this season was:

‘He’s another for the staying novice chase division, but he probably has a bit more speed than Monkfish. He’s got a huge cruising speed and fences are going to suit him’.

I started writing this thinking it really could be either race, but when I watch the Ballymore back, look at his profile, factor in everything that’s been said by a multitude of people connected to the horse, it leaves me thinking the plan will be the RSA, and the horse will do the talking from there

I hope I’m right. I will be beyond fu*king raging if Willie pulls another Black Hercules out the bag and sends him down the Marsh route

My opinion is that TBG will be aimed at the RSA. I don't think it means much but in the RP Stable tour, Mullins mentions TBG as a 'stayer' and Monkfish as a 'strong stayer'. I think both will run in the RSA but if I had to split them, rational thinking would see Monkfish go for the 4 miler based off he went for the longer AB this year and TBG go for the shorter RSA.

I've also backed TBG for the RSA along with The Big Breakaway as I mentioned a while back that I think the Ballymore form was stronger than the AB.

[Pendil]

My opinion is that TBG will be aimed at the RSA. I don't think it means much but in the RP Stable tour, Mullins mentions TBG as a 'stayer' and Monkfish as a 'strong stayer'. I think both will run in the RSA but if I had to split them, rational thinking would see Monkfish go for the 4 miler based off he went for the longer AB this year and TBG go for the shorter RSA.

I've also backed TBG for the RSA along with The Big Breakaway as I mentioned a while back that I think the Ballymore form was stronger than the AB.

Yeah I agree with you YH. TBG for the RSA and Monkfish for either