Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[kinloch brae]

It's not just about travelling in the ground, it's also jumping out of it. He ran okay at the weekend, but it was obvious he wasn't as comfortable as usual. He's a good traveller and and excellent jumper usually, and in the last mile I suspect anyone who backed him was concerned.

Who knows whether it was the ground or Nolan's form, but I suspect it's a race to write off. How many novices get to the Festival unbeaten? Not many. Very many champions are beaten at some point during the season.

I've said it before elsewhere, we can all be too quick to dismiss a horse based on one run. In this case we know he jumps well, and we know his novice hurdle form stands scrutiny, so there's every reason to give him another chance.

Yes, but after that bad run, he now has plenty to prove next time he runs. You can't just pretend it didn't happen. He still jumped well enough which makes the performance even worse. He certainly didn't run okay because he was fully expected to win (easily) and was trounced by horse over a stone inferior over hurdles. However you dress it up it was a very disappointing performance.

[Quevega]

Yes, but after that bad run, he now has plenty to prove next time he runs. You can't just pretend it didn't happen. He still jumped well enough which makes the performance even worse. He certainly didn't run okay because he was fully expected to win (easily) and was trounced by horse over a stone inferior over hurdles. However you dress it up it was a very disappointing performance.

I think spectre is saying something very similar to you KB, just not as morose as your interpretation.

[Hurdles or chasing]

But none of that is as "telling" as Mullins saying he's likely to be his best arkle horse to the new race sponsors and columnist outlet.

It's just another example of Willie being quite flexible/open minded over the consideration of trips for his classier horses.

I'm almost sure I remember an interview with Mullins after Klassical Dream won the supreme that he said he didn't mind if he went Supreme or Ballymore and asked Ruby what he wanted and just went with that. He certainly didn't seem concerned either way about trip.

How is Shiskin now best priced 11/4? Obviously hugely exciting and fully expect him to go very close this year. He fell on hurdles debut last year and its not like the other top trainers don't have very good horses to aim at this. Id be very surprised if one of Unexcepted, Elixiar Dainey and Klassical Dream don't seriously put it up to him. Hes nearly the same price as EA.

Regardless of what Mullins said in his blog I can see KD going up in trip this year. He mentioned the possibility plenty of times last year especially on better ground. The smaller trainers might be trying to avoid EA in the Marsh but Mullins wont be. His run at Leopardstown against Aramon when he got back up to win didn't make him look all speed.
I really rate Unexcepted and he couldn't have been more impressive. Elixar Dainay could be even better in a few days time. He has plenty of options at 2 miles. If all 3 prove to be top class at 2 miles I know which one I think looks most likely to want further. I've backed him for both because if he wins his beginners and looks anyway back to himself hes going single fingers easily. Not to mention how short he might go if Mullins says we never really got him fully right last year which I believe to be the case. I hope he takes to fences and ends up going up in trip to take on EA anyway. All we can do is make educated guesses atm as to where he will end up.

[Quevega]

I'm almost sure I remember an interview with Mullins after Klassical Dream won the supreme that he said he didn't mind if he went Supreme or Ballymore and asked Ruby what he wanted and just went with that. He certainly didn't seem concerned either way about trip.

How is Shiskin now best priced 11/4? Obviously hugely exciting and fully expect him to go very close this year. He fell on hurdles debut last year and its not like the other top trainers don't have very good horses to aim at this. Id be very surprised if one of Unexcepted, Elixiar Dainey and Klassical Dream don't seriously put it up to him. Hes nearly the same price as EA.

Regardless of what Mullins said in his blog I can see KD going up in trip this year. He mentioned the possibility plenty of times last year especially on better ground. The smaller trainers might be trying to avoid EA in the Marsh but Mullins wont be. His run at Leopardstown against Aramon when he got back up to win didn't make him look all speed.
I really rate Unexcepted and he couldn't have been more impressive. Elixar Dainay could be even better in a few days time. He has plenty of options at 2 miles. If all 3 prove to be top class at 2 miles I know which one I think looks most likely to want further. I've backed him for both because if he wins his beginners and looks anyway back to himself hes going single fingers easily. Not to mention how short he might go if Mullins says we never really got him fully right last year which I believe to be the case. I hope he takes to fences and ends up going up in trip to take on EA anyway. All we can do is make educated guesses atm as to where he will end up.

They all have to earn a ticket first.
Assuming they do, I'd imagine Elixir is most likely to step up to the plate vs Envoi.
Unexcepted the least likely cos of his style of running, that they appear keen to continue with.
But Klassical Dream could also step up.
It will all depend on how they run between now and then.

[Istabraq]

Latest Exhibition avoiding heavy ground going forward https://twitter.com/irishracing/stat...121762304?s=21

Interesting exchange of views here but avoiding good animals in very deep ground can only be good news for latter season targets, a very hard race can leave a mark so anyone holding festival vouchers should be delighted with the announcement...

[Jorvik]

I re-watched the Ferny Hollow Champion Bumper earlier... A bit of a monkey at the very start of the race, held up at the rear for the first mile thereafter. Hard to tell from the camera angles, but seemed pretty determined throughout to do Paul Townends head in, never really settling - practically has to pull his head off at some points he's so keen to get on with it. Last half mile seems to look for trouble and gets a couple of big bumps along the way. More than enough excuses on offer if they were needed had it gone a different way, but he battles, runs on well and is still full of beans through the line.
Of the next 5 home, Appreciate It in 2nd came to this race off a very good win. Still to run this season but well thought of. The next 3 have since won over hurdles and Ocean Wind back in 6th has gone on to win a Cesarewitch.
Glancing Queen in 8th made her hurdles debut today and was a comfortable winner. She was 7 and a bit lengths behind Envoi Allen in the 2019 bumper, 22 1/2 in 2020.
In 10th and 24lengths off Ferny you have One True King who has also gone on to win over hurdles but most notably was a very close 2nd at Cheltenham last week in a handicap off top weight, to add to his 2nd at the same course in October.
After that you've got wins since from the 13th, 14th, 16th and 22nd placed horses.

On paper, the time is a slight worry. It's the slowest in the last 20 years (as far back as I looked), although only 4 were on ground described as soft, with 3 of those being the most recent renewals with the other back in 2002. (Timeform give 2002 as soft, RP and Sky give it GS?!)

Envoi Allen - 3m 55.6s (2019)
Pizarro - 4m 0.58s (2002, race was 23yards further)
Relegate - 4m 4.6s (2018)
Ferny Hollow - 4m 6.8s (2020)

Not great! But if we look at the hurdles races on the same day in each of those years, we can see in all cases the 2020 renewals were the slowest, 2019 the fastest:

Ballymore/Royal & Sun
City Island - 5m 6.6s (2019)
Samcro -5m 18.7s (2018, race was 26yards further)
Galileo (Pol) - 5m 19.56s (2002)
Envoi Allen - 5m 19.9s (2020)

Fred Winter/Boodles (2002 was Coral Cup over 2m 5f)
Band Of Outlaws - 3m 58.3s (2019)
Veneer Of Charm - 4m 10.8s (2018)
Aramax - 4m 13.1s (2020)

So what does this tell us? Firstly, that i'm bored and will do anything to avoid using my Zwift subscription. Secondly maybe not a lot, but given Ferny Hollow's run in the bumper was very much not ideal, there is plenty to like about the manner in which he went on to win it and whilst i'm not a timings nerd and generally don't pay massive amounts of attention to them in NH racing, it's hard to ignore that the comparative times across the examples given are very much in his favour. There's likely a ton of improvement to come just if they get him to settle.

The negatives for bumper winners going on to run in the Supreme or Ballymore are that since 2000, only 2 have gone on to win either: Champagne Fever (2013 Supreme) Envoi Allen (2020 Ballymore).
Only 5 others have even made the top 5: Ballyandy (3rd, '16 S), Cue Card, (4th, '11 S) Dunguib (3rd, '10 S) Cousin Vinny (5th, '09 S) and Pizarro (2nd '03 B).
Of the others that turned up to the following years festival (8 out of 19 didn't), none won any of the other races.

I picked a sample from the above top 5 finishers and started looking at winners that came from their Champion Bumpers, using the criteria of horses who'd won (any race) between then and the following years festival, including the 4 days themselves. I picked the Relegate bumper just to see if it offered any clues which as you can see, it didn't!

Envoi Allen - 9 from 13 rivals (69%)
Relegate - 14/22 (63.6%)
Champagne Fever - 9/19 (47.3%)
Ballyandy - 10/22 (45.5%)
Ferny Hollow - 10/22 (45.4%

In conclusion? Not really sure, but it killed some time!

[charlie]

Brilliant post Jorvik - can mods move to supreme/ballymore thread as this deserves to be read!

[Jorvik]

Brilliant post Jorvik - can mods move to supreme/ballymore thread as this deserves to be read!

Thanks, you'd think after writing all that i'd have made sure to post it in the correct thread eh?!

[opatcho]

Top effort there!!

[kinloch brae]

I re-watched the Ferny Hollow Champion Bumper earlier... A bit of a monkey at the very start of the race, held up at the rear for the first mile thereafter. Hard to tell from the camera angles, but seemed pretty determined throughout to do Paul Townends head in, never really settling - practically has to pull his head off at some points he's so keen to get on with it. Last half mile seems to look for trouble and gets a couple of big bumps along the way. More than enough excuses on offer if they were needed had it gone a different way, but he battles, runs on well and is still full of beans through the line.
Of the next 5 home, Appreciate It in 2nd came to this race off a very good win. Still to run this season but well thought of. The next 3 have since won over hurdles and Ocean Wind back in 6th has gone on to win a Cesarewitch.
Glancing Queen in 8th made her hurdles debut today and was a comfortable winner. She was 7 and a bit lengths behind Envoi Allen in the 2019 bumper, 22 1/2 in 2020.
In 10th and 24lengths off Ferny you have One True King who has also gone on to win over hurdles but most notably was a very close 2nd at Cheltenham last week off in a handicap off top weight, to add to his 2nd at the same course in October.
After that you've got wins since from the 13th, 14th and 16th and 22nd placed horses.

On paper, the time is a slight worry. It's the slowest in the last 20 years (as far back as I looked), although only 4 were on ground described as soft, with 3 of those being the most recent renewals with the other back in 2002. (Timeform give 2002 as soft, RP and Sky give it GS?!)

Envoi Allen - 3m 55.6s (2019)
Pizarro - 4m 0.58s (2002, race was 23yards further)
Relegate - 4m 4.6s (2018)
Ferny Hollow - 4m 6.8s (2020)

Not great! But if we look at the hurdles races on the same day in each of those years, we can see in all cases the 2020 renewals were the slowest, 2019 the fastest:

Ballymore/Royal & Sun
City Island - 5m 6.6s (2019)
Samcro -5m 18.7s (2018, race was 26yards further)
Galileo (Pol) - 5m 19.56s (2002)
Envoi Allen - 5m 19.9s (2020)

Fred Winter/Boodles (2002 was Coral Cup over 2m 5f)
Band Of Outlaws - 3m 58.3s (2019)
Veneer Of Charm - 4m 10.8s (2018)
Aramax - 4m 13.1s (2020)

So what does this tell us? Firstly, that i'm bored and will do anything to avoid using my Zwift subscription. Secondly maybe not a lot, but given Ferny Hollow's run in the bumper was very much not ideal, there is plenty to like about the manner in which he went on to win it and whilst i'm not a timings nerd and generally don't pay massive amounts of attention to them in NH racing, it's hard to ignore that the comparative times across the examples given are very much in his favour.

The negative for bumper winners going on to run in the Supreme or Ballymore are that since 2000, only 2 have gone on to win either: Champagne Fever (2013 Supreme) Envoi Allen (2020 Ballymore). Only 5 others, Ballyandy (3rd, '16 S), Cue Card, (4th, '11 S) Dunguib (3rd, '10 S) Cousin Vinny (5th, '09 S) and Pizarro (2nd '03 B) have even made the top 5.
Of those that turned up the following year at the festival (8 out of 19 didn't), none won any of the other races.

I picked a sample from the above top 5 finishers and started looking at winners that come from their Champion Bumpers, using the criteria of horses who'd won (any race) between that year and including the following years festival, including the 4 days themselves. I picked the Relegate bumper just to see if it offered any clues which as you can see, it didn't!

Envoi Allen - 9 from 13 rivals (69%)
Relegate - 14/22 (63.6%)
Champagne Fever - 9/19 (47.3%)
Ballyandy - 10/22 (45.5%)
Ferny Hollow - 10/22 (45.4%

In conclusion? Not really sure, but it killed some time!

Presumably, this is on the wrong thread and you have backed Ferny Hollow since you seem to be looking quite hard for positives. Whether you have achieved that is open to interpretation. You could very easily look at the Champion Bumper and say that the third, fourth and fifth have all been exposed as being short of Grade 1 standard. In fact Third Time Lucki is the only one who really should have won a race. I would argue that Ferny Hollow's trip was close to ideal. I think Townsend gave him one of, if not, the best ride of the Festival. He was able to produce him past weakening rivals without the need to get into a battle. Perfect for a horse who had previously looked like a dodgepot.

[nortonscoin200]

Great stuff Jorvik - lovely post.

[Pendil]

Far too early to call last fears Bumper as a vintage renewal

[Faugheen_Machine]

Brilliant post Jorvik - can mods move to supreme/ballymore thread as this deserves to be read!

Since we moved to the new platform, I don't have the power to move posts.

Hopefully Kev will tidy things up when he returns.

[Hurdles or chasing]

Really looking forward to seeing Lord Royal over fences later today. I'm hoping fences and the improvement from being so lightly raced can bring him up to Grade 1 level. Sams profile is another interesting horse and should improve for a fence. Over hurdles he always managed to throw in a bad jump just when it started to really matter. Hopefully he wont have the same problem over fences

[Hardy Eustace]

Really looking forward to seeing Lord Royal over fences later today. I'm hoping fences and the improvement from being so lightly raced can bring him up to Grade 1 level. Sams profile is another interesting horse and should improve for a fence. Over hurdles he always managed to throw in a bad jump just when it started to really matter. Hopefully he wont have the same problem over fences

You and me both HoC. The way he won at Clonmel last season was spectacular for a horse having its first run.Would love to see it bolt up today would give the RSA even more gloss!