Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[FinalFurlong91]

Added Klassical Dream @ 22/1 for the Arkle (Hills Boost)

I'd kick myself if I didn't get him onside. I really don't like Shishkin's current price, bordering on ridiculous IMO. 9/4 and hasn't jumped a fence in a competitive race yet. He's priced off a supreme win and very enthusiastic trainer comments.

What about KD? He won a supreme (10 seconds quicker) and according to WPM he is probably their Arkle number one. I know KD went a bit wayward last season, and that's factored into his price, but you effectively have one horse at 9/4 and the other @ 20/1, for a trainer that's won 4 of the last 6.

That's collectively enough for me to think 20/1 is the right price and value play in this race at the moment, even more so when you have the likes of Envoi Allen and Sharjah ahead of his un the market when we know they won't be going down the Arkle route.

The ability is there but I couldn't part with money until iv seen him jump a fence after the disaster that was last season

[Faugheen_Machine]

The ability is there but I couldn't part with money until iv seen him jump a fence after the disaster that was last season

He jumped must of his hurdles like they were fences last season

[charlie]

The ability is there but I couldn't part with money until iv seen him jump a fence after the disaster that was last season

I know what you mean FF91 - can understand this viewpoint completely and I was right on the cusp. Positive vibes re his jumping from Willie and Ruby, plus that price, were just about enough to swing it for me, but it was a close call.

[nortonscoin200]

When he's declared in a 2m 7.5f plus race would be when to consider him.
Not before IMO.

Agreed!!!!!

[TheRowebot]

The ability is there but I couldn't part with money until iv seen him jump a fence after the disaster that was last season

Isn’t that part of the risk associated with getting a bigger price? I’d love to watch his first run, see him jump like sprinter sacre and still take 20/1. Sadly, this ain’t going to happen..

[FinalFurlong91]

Isn’t that part of the risk associated with getting a bigger price? I’d love to watch his first run, see him jump like sprinter sacre and still take 20/1. Sadly, this ain’t going to happen..

Given what happened last year the risk is too big

Id rather take 12s-14s knowing he can jump than potentially chuck money away when he could still be the nut job of last season not the horse we saw in the supreme

His very low head carriage would especially worry me as that has to make it harder for him to jump a fence

[Istabraq]

The ability is there but I couldn't part with money until iv seen him jump a fence after the disaster that was last season

I can understand this and your approach highlights the different ways we all play.
What I would say is that KD’s ability is clear, a wide margin Supreme winner and (one of a few) ante post champion hurdle favourite, his Arkle price already looks out of line for such a talented hurdler, he is one horse whose price could seriously bomb should he impress...

[TheRowebot]

Given what happened last year the risk is too big

Id rather take 12s-14s knowing he can jump than potentially chuck money away when he could still be the nut job of last season not the horse we saw in the supreme

His very low head carriage would especially worry me as that has to make it harder for him to jump a fence

If he comes out and wins well, I very much doubt you will get 14’s depending on the opposition. Especially given WPM not establishing his Arkle horse yet.

Low head carriage wouldn’t bother me at all. Altior carries his head fairly low and he turned out alright!

[FinalFurlong91]

I can understand this and your approach highlights the different ways we all play.
What I would say is that KD’s ability is clear, a wide margin Supreme winner and (one of a few) ante post champion hurdle favourite, his Arkle price already looks out of line for such a talented hurdler, he is one horse whose price could seriously bomb should he impress...

I'm happy to bet a horse before iv seen them jump but in this case I'd need more than positive stable vibes

Remember they were incredibly sweet on him last season for the champion hurdle and that went about as badly as you could possibly imagine

[FinalFurlong91]

If he comes out and wins well, I very much doubt you will get 14’s depending on the opposition. Especially given WPM not establishing his Arkle horse yet.

Low head carriage wouldn’t bother me at all. Altior carries his head fairly low and he turned out alright!

Altior is a freak though

And KD has a much lower head carriage at times

Maybe having bigger obstacles to get over will change that

[Istabraq]

Remember they were incredibly sweet on him last season for the champion hurdle and that went about as badly as you could possibly imagine

True, but he wouldn’t be the first horse to have a poor season as a second season hurdler/chaser.
When you win a Supreme by 5l you are entitled to think you have a serious champion hurdle horse, no-one can blame connections for being bullish, but for whatever reason things didn’t pan out the way they’d hoped but I’m sure he hasn’t become a bad horse overnight...

[Lobos]

The ability is there but I couldn't part with money until iv seen him jump a fence after the disaster that was last season

I'm in the same boat. He was desperate last season. Will need to see his first run. Also I'm not convinced 2 miles will be his distance unless he gets deep ground.

[charlie]

I'm in the same boat. He was desperate last season. Will need to see his first run. Also I'm not convinced 2 miles will be his distance unless he gets deep ground.

Completely get the first part, but I don't get the bit in bold. He's raced pretty much exclusively over 2m and is a multiple grade 1 winner over 2m (on both good and soft ground). That, plus WPM saying he's staying over 2m because he has lots of natural speed, kinda torpedo's 2 miles not being his distance no?

[Lobos]

Completely get the first part, but I don't get the bit in bold. He's raced pretty much exclusively over 2m and is a multiple grade 1 winner over 2m (on both good and soft ground). That, plus WPM saying he's staying over 2m because he has lots of natural speed, kinda torpedo's 2 miles not being his distance no?

Always looked more of a Stayer to me. Would have ran in the Ballymore had it not poured down the year he won the Supreme. His Stayers entry last season was quite telling as well.

[Craigy14]

Always looked more of a Stayer to me. Would have ran in the Ballymore had it not poured down the year he won the Supreme. His Stayers entry last season was quite telling as well.

Surely that makes him even better then to run in a race not to be his best trip as you say and still win with his head in his chest?

Just because a horse wins over a certain distance and you view it as not their best distance Lobos doesn’t dismiss what they achieved. He’s won Grade 1’s over 2miles so why would you think he needs further?

If he keeps winning Grade 1’s over 2miles you think they’ll up him? I’ll answer for you, very unlikely. Altior ain’t done half bad sticking at 2miles has he. So many said he “clearly” needed further and turned out he didn’t.